Japan: pre-race 2018
With changing
conditions, the result could’ve gone a bit wonky (and did, for Red
Bull and Ferrari). Happily the bet’s each way aspect came off, with
Bottas qualifying in 2nd, making it a small winner.
Qualifying began with
the threat of rain in the air (not unexpectedly). The first session
had a couple of surprises, but neither was weather-related. Ericsson,
whose Sauber had been looking good, went for an excursion in a gravel
trap and ended up with three wheels on his wagon. Further up, the
fastest to be ejected at this stage was Hulkenberg. The German had
spun in third practice and Renault had done well to repair his car,
but his running was limited and he failed to improve on his final lap
(unlike many others, including his team mate). That said, he wasn’t
miles off the pace so it suggests the Renault just isn’t all that
quick here. Sirotkin and both McLarens also failed to progress, with
Stroll doing well to make Q2.
Q2 also saw an upset.
Early on, Ricciardo’s Red Bull (now running the theoretically
faster but iffier C-spec Renault engine) ran out of electricity. The
loss of power required some nifty work in the garage, but the problem
couldn’t be fixed in time and even if it could’ve been, rainfall
meant he would’ve had his work cut out to reach Q3. The usually
optimistic Aussie, who sounds like he’s recovering from a minor
bout of pestilence, was audibly frustrated with the situation. The
two Toro Rossos did very well to reach Q3, the late rain meaning
others (such as Leclerc and Magnussen) were unable to improve and
displace them. Sainz and Stroll also failed to progress.
Hamilton had topped Q1,
and Bottas Q2. Who would be fastest in Q3, and what tyres should they
slap on? Rain had been falling quite a bit at the end of the previous
session but had pretty much stopped by the start of Q3. Everyone who
wasn’t in a red car went for the supersoft. Ferrari went for
intermediates, Vettel commenting even before the green light came on
that it was too dry. He was right. The blunder cost Ferrari some
precious time in a session that would end up being very wet.
On the first flying
lap, the only one that counted, Hamilton was top and Bottas a couple
of tenths down, but still a second ahead of Verstappen, who managed
to qualify 3rd. Both Ferraris, on their delayed flying
laps, made errors. Raikkonen’s put him 4th, Vettel’s a
shocking 9th. Grosjean continued to make his horrendous
start to the season an ever fading memory, lining up on the third row
just ahead of Hartley, a fantastic result for the Kiwi. Gasly is just
behind his team mate, joined on the fourth row by Ocon. Vettel and
Perez comprise the fifth row.
Leclerc and Magnussen
will be 11th and 12th which may be handy for
tyre choice. However, it’s worth noting the two Mercedes will be
starting on the middle tyre, the soft, whereas the rest of the top
10, assuming the race is dry at the start, will be on the supersoft.
Forecast is for the
race to be dry throughout.
Based on the grid, my
current betting thoughts are:
Raikkonen, podium
Verstappen, win
Ricciardo, top 6
Raikkonen is 2.5 for a
podium. So-so, given he needs to make up a place and, if opportunity
arises, Ferrari will likely have him step aside for Vettel.
Verstappen is 8.5 to
win. Hmm. Each way, it might be value, though I’m concerned about
his engine failing.
Ricciardo is 1.44 for a
top 6 finish. I think he’s a dead cert to have the pace, but it
requires his car to actually make it. Solo, this doesn’t work, but
pairing it with a Not To Be Classified bet might work (though if his
car conks out on the final lap, both bets would fail).
Incidentally, Ocon has
a three place grid penalty due to insufficiently slowing under red
flags.
As always, I perused
the markets to see if anything leapt out at me.
Raikkonen, win each
way, 15
Perez, winner without
big 6 each way, 8.5
Leclerc, winner without
big 6 each way, 17
Toro Rosso, most team
points, 751
Raikkonen to be winner
each way means he has to pass Verstappen, or have the Dutchman’s
car fail, and then pass a Mercedes. It’s possible he could slip
between them in pit stops. The odds are a bit longer than I’d
expect, but if he has Vettel right behind him he’ll be obliged to
move over, and has a bad habit of losing places off the start.
Perez starts 9th,
but it’s a bit tricky getting a handle on his pace as he was
seemingly put out too late in Q3 so he was a day and a half behind
everyone else. He’s 8.5 to make up two places on non-big 6 chaps.
It’s quite tempting, but maybe not as much as the bet below.
Leclerc starts 10th,
thanks to Ocon’s penalty, and has choice of tyres. Not only that,
his pace, based on Q1, was better than that of everyone (outside the
big 6). Each way, the bet pays off to 8th placed (with
zero retirements and assuming Ricciardo passes him), so I think it’s
good value.
The Toro Roso to top
the points is based on the high chance of a Red Bull deciding to run
out of power, and the lower chance (but not 750/1 long chance) of
both a Ferrari and Mercedes DNF. If that happens and all else stays
the same, Toro Rosso would be likely to top score, weird as that
sounds. I’m not advocating this as a main tip, but if you have ten
pence or a pound you’re desperate to gamble, stick it on this. And
don’t complain if they hit each other on the first lap…
Tip for the race:
Leclerc to win, each
way, without the big 6, at 17 (19 with boost).
Early start, so
hopefully I’ll wake up in time for it.
Annoyingly, just before
I posted this Leclerc’s odds were cut to 13. That’s still value,
but obviously not as good.
Morris Dancer
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