Spain: pre-race 2020

In shock news, Hamilton got pole, Bottas starts 2nd, and Verstappen starts 3rd. Gosh. Je suis flabbergasted. Pole-sitters tend to get wins here at a high rate, but there are notable exceptions, such as 2016.

Q1 was mostly the same old story, with Giovinazzi and both Williams/Haas failing to progress. The exception was Raikkonen, who managed to drag his Alfa Romeo into Q2.

The Finn surprisingly managed to outpace Ocon, though both men were slowest in the second session. Vettel was the fastest of those eliminated, a mere two-thousandths off reaching the top 10, but he starts 11th yet again. His glass half-full view may be that the medium tyre (thought to be the best for the race) may be best for starting, and those ahead were forced by the competitive nature of the times to qualify on the soft, which may prove suboptimal for the race. Kvyat and Ricciardo also left at this stage.

It was close in Q3 but Hamilton secured yet another pole, this time by half a tenth over Bottas. I think neutral wouldn’t mind a replay of 2016 and Verstappen winning after the Mercedes take one another out, but I’m not sure I’ll be putting money on that (Verstappen’s race pace is apparently very good but it’s a bugger to pass in Spain). Racing Point were strong all Saturday and Perez and Stroll qualified 4th and 5th. One note of caution: the Racing Point has sometimes seemed to have a tendency to underperform in the race. Albon got 6th, which is reasonably good, and the fourth row is a McLaren affair, with Sainz ahead of Norris. Leclerc leads row five ahead of Gasly, but I wonder if that’ll prove a worse place to start than Vettel’s 11th due to the tyre situation. We shall see

Early Spain thoughts 

Verstappen win

Perez podium

Weather looks dry and overcast, mildly cooler than yesterday. No penalties, at the time of writing, appear to be in play.

Verstappen is 3.8 for the win, which surprises me because he was 5.5 earlier in the week and 6.5 right after Silverstone. Not an each way bet, maybe worth considering for an enhanced win only (4.2) or bet and hedge on Betfair (where he’s 4.5).

Perez is 3.75 for a podium, which is also shorter than anticipated. He’s a good driver and the Racing Point is looking tasty but the team seems to have a habit of going backwards/underperforming in races. For that matter, Perez is 34 to win, with a third the odds top 2, which might be more tempting than just the podium bet given that requires either a Mercedes reliability failure or other severe woe.

So, I checked the markets for anything that sprang out.

Albon, podium, 6.5

Leclerc, winner without the big 6, 3.5

Magnussen, not to be classified, 3

First lap leader, Verstappen, 9

After a strong performance last race and starting pretty high up, in a competitive car, Albon could make the podium. Against that is the difficulty overtaking, which is the main reason I’m a little reluctant to back Verstappen for the win.

Leclerc’s shown himself to be adept at tyre management and just putting in a solid performance in a car that isn’t great. His chief rivals for this are the McLarens, both of whom start immediately ahead of him, but they’ve also shown themselves to be similarly vulnerable to overheating/tyre woe as Mercedes. Odds could be nicer and there’s no each way option but it’s tempting. (Ferrari can be backed on the same sort of market for 3.4 which might be worth it just on the off-chance Vettel has a great race or gets lucky with the safety car timing).

I believe the Magnussen not to be classified bet is self-explanatory. His daft driving yesterday served as a reminder of his casually reckless approach.

Not his only chance, but the high rate of poles to wins means Verstappen will be acutely aware of the importance of trying to get ahead early on. Downside is that this rarely happens in Barcelona.

Unlike last week when the Kvyat bet seemed almost the only obvious value, tricky trying to sift through these options. I think I like races being held at the same venues two times in a row. The two bets that seem best value are Verstappen to win only, 4.2 (4.33 with boost), or Leclerc to be best of the rest at 3.5 (3.6 with boost).

I think the Leclerc bet is the better of the two and have backed that. Very hard to tell with Verstappen, but I’ve decided to back it as well. 

As mentioned previously my time today is very much limited so the post-race ramble may be late today, tomorrow, or not posted at all.

Morris Dancer