Spain: pre-qualifying 2020

Slightly surprisingly given how long they’ve been around, the FIA has decided to ban qualifying engine modes from Belgium onwards. Probably won’t have a huge impact, but there we are.

I also expect this weekend to be critical for the title race. Last weekend the Mercedes looked vulnerable, and the weekend before that the pace for the Silver Arrows was great until the tyres went. This suggest heat more than tyre wear was the real problem. Immediately after the race concluded I checked the Barcelona weather forecast and both the actual and ‘feels like’ temperature was predicted to be much the same as it had been for the second Silverstone outing (though it’s worth noting the BBC weather forecast seems less accurate than it used to be). With a first ever Portuguese Grand Prix and multiple races in Italy this could suggest Verstappen stands a real chance.

Spain’s slower than the UK but with identical temperatures in the pipeline this race and how it unfolds may paint a picture of either a Verstappen title tilt or another slightly tedious Hamilton title with only a fading Bottas challenge for company (admittedly, the Finn got very unlucky with the timing of his tyre failure at Silverstone the first time, and the strategy his team gave him for the second was not exactly optimal). Mercedes can still take the titles if they lose in Spain, but Verstappen needs to either win outright or be genuinely competitive to stand any sort of chance. On raw pace, the Mercedes is in a league of one.

On Vettel: his poor pace was caused by a flawed chassis. The damage is rumoured to have been caused by an Italian Harry Potter lookalike, although this has not been confirmed.

First practice had a temperature comparable to the race forecast, so we must hope the results are unrepresentative as the Mercedes were top and nearly a second ahead of Verstappen (Bottas was four-hundredths ahead of Hamilton). The Dutchman was two-tenths ahead of the Ferraris, Leclerc leading the way by a single hundredth over Vettel. A few tenths further back, surprisingly, was Grosjean, then came Perez (back in his seat), Albon, Magnussen, and Stroll. The only silver lining on timings is that Mercedes were similarly dominant in first practice last weekend.

Second practice saw Hamilton again fastest, a slender margin ahead of Bottas, with Verstappen further back. Ricciardo was only a tenth off the Dutchman, and a few tenths ahead of Grosjean. Maybe Haas will have a good weekend? Next came Leclerc and Sainz, with Perez, Ocon, and Gasly rounding out the top 10.

Third practice was ended very slightly early as Ocon had to take evasive action due to a Magnussen. Renault have some mending to do to get him out for qualifying.

Hamilton led Bottas by a tenth and a half in the final practice session, with Verstappen again behind the Mercedes, half a second off the ultimate pace. A few tenths further back was Sainz, ahead of Perez by just half a tenth. Close behind followed Leclerc, Gasly, Stroll, Albon, and Ricciardo. Midfield’s looking as competitive as ever.

Probably not going to bet but I checked the markets just in case anything leapt out at me.

Hamilton was 1.5 to top qualifying, with Bottas 2.6 and Verstappen 10. With no each way option, nothing tempted me.

Going to have relatively little free time tomorrow so I may end up watching the race later than usual. Pre-race ramble should be up at the normal time but the post-race tosh may be delayed quite a bit.

Morris Dancer