70th Anniversary Grand Prix: post-race analysis 2020

Huzzah for Max Verstappen! Won a great race thanks to a combination of great driving, excellent strategy, and the heat (for the record, around 28C feeling like 32C) playing havoc with the Mercedes (or perhaps they’ve returned to their old problem of tyre-chewing). Verstappen was 12 for the win, which I didn’t tip, but I did tip Kvyat to score at 7 (with boost) and I’m very pleased that came off, as he squeaked into 10^th. No safety cars or huge numbers of DNFs, only Magnussen, who was behind him anyway, failed to finish, so I’m very pleased with that.

Off the line Hulkenberg lost a place to Verstappen and Ricciardo slipped back to be passed by Stroll, putting the Racing Point cars adjacent in the running order.

Vettel continued his downward spiral (although it may be partly him being shafted by his own team) by spinning by himself early on (weirdly, Ricciardo may have done something similar later in the race, unclear if he had a slight contact with Sainz).

Out front a gap opened up between the top three and everyone else. Kvyat had made up a couple of places at this point, partly aided by Vettel being down in last. But the gaps were very small. And then Verstappen was actually catching the Mercedes, whose medium tyres were being chewed up like a dog’s bone. The Dutchman’s hard tyres were much healthier, to the extent that when the Mercedes pitted for hards it seemed Verstappen might opt for a one stop.

In fact, he was faster on his old hard tyres than the Mercedes were on their new ones. And when he pitted, emerging into the lead (if memory serves), he had the mediums on, lashed the buggers for half a dozen laps, and then came in for some more lovely hard tyres. As commentary said, credit to Hannah Schmitz[sp], Red Bull strategy clever clogs. Unorthodox but great thinking.

Mercedes were in trouble. Bottas, the leading Mercedes as he had been all weekend, was pitted for new hard tyres. Hamilton stayed out despite his tyres looking very gnarly. Red Bull, with about 14 or so laps left, gently asked Verstappen to go a little quicker just on case the Briton tried to eke out his degrading rubber as per last weekend, but he was brought in for a final stop. This led to him emerging behind Leclerc, who had strong pace throughout and showed a single stop was possible, but he passed the Monegasque and soon did likewise to his team mate, but Hamilton was too far adrift from Verstappen to even have a chance of closing the gap.

The Dutchman, taking a moment to ensure his engineer was sufficiently hydrated and had used hand sanitiser to combat sweaty palms, and then claimed the victory, and a great one it was too.

Bottas may be pissed. He was 3^rd, having had pole and supposedly, as leading car on the crack, being beneficiary of the optimal strategy. The Finn had no chance to hold back Hamilton, and his title deficit grows even larger. Hamilton also got the fastest lap point.

Leclerc’s 4^th was a little anonymous as he was a bit in No Man’s Land but impressive. Hulkenberg had been right behind but a significant vibration led to a late pit stop, helping Albon (who had the pace to probably get the place on merit anyway) into that slot. Strong race by the Thai, and a very good weekend all round for Red Bull. After a tricky start to the season this may do Albon a lot of good.

Stroll got 6^th, one place ahead of Hulkenberg. Decent for Racing Point, they may have hoped for more, but pretty good. Rumour has it Perez will be back for the next race (Spain) so it’s nice to see Hulkenberg got himself some points and remind the F1 world he’s actually quite good at this driving business.

Ocon was 8^th. He was a roadblock to Kvyat for much of the race, and others, but drove well (Ricciardo may have finished ahead but I think the spin probably buggered his chances). Norris got 9^th. Not a great weekend for McLaren. They also struggled with tyres last weekend.

Kvyat got 10^th, creeping into the final points position, just ahead of his team mate. Given their relative starting positions (7^th for Gasly and 16^th for Kvyat) that’s a tasty result for the Russian, and those who backed him to score.

Constructors:

Mercedes 180
Red Bull 113
Ferrari 55
McLaren 53
Racing Point 41
Renault 36
AlphaTauri 14
Alfa Romeo 2
Haas 1
Williams 0

I think the top two are nailed on to finish in those positions. However, I suspect McLaren might push Ferrari all the way and perhaps even end up finishing best of the midfield. AlphaTauri are also in a sort of league of their own, far better than the three teams behind them but not quite quick enough to be as competitive as they’d like with the midfield ahead

 Drivers:

Hamilton 107
Verstappen 77
Bottas 73

Could Verstappen mount a title challenge? That might actually depend on the weather. I don’t think it’s on, the pace advantage of the Mercedes in reasonable conditions is simply immense. But in the heat, and when it comes to tyre management, they are more vulnerable. It’s not impossible but I suspect this will be yet another Hamilton title.

We’re off to Spain next. The current forecast is for it to be 27C, feels like 35C. Mercedes may be sweating a little.

Morris Dancer