Belgium: pre-race 2020
Some predictable results, especially on the front row, but some slight surprises. I was taken aback by Ricciardo’s pace, the slower than expected Racing Point, and just how poor Ferrari were.
In the first part of qualifying Ferrari struggled to escape, but managed to do so by the skin of their teeth. The Haas and Alfa Romeos were not so fortunate, and Latifi also failed to progress.
Ferrari were glad of Russell in Q2 as the Briton was the only man slower than them. Mercedes, Verstappen, and Racing Point all set their times on the medium, but the competition forced Racing Point to shift to the soft tyre, which pushed both AlphaTauris into the elimination zone. Very tight in the midfield.
Q3 was predictable with Hamilton fastest and Bottas 2nd, but a mile ahead of the rest of the field, but did have a surprise or two. Ricciardo was faster than Verstappen on the first run, forcing the Dutchman to improve (which he duly did). Nevertheless, the Renault’s looking very tasty especially in the Aussie’s talented hands. He ended up 4th with Ocon 6th and Albon (also looking good) between them.
Sainz was 7th, ahead of Perez, Stroll, and a slower than expected Norris. Excepting the probable procession of the front row, the field from 3rd to 12th looks very competitive indeed.
One note of warning on the Aussie front: Ricciardo did have a brake-by-wire (BBW) problem during qualifying. It was resolved, obviously, but that may be an ill omen for Sunday. Which would be a shame because he and Renault look rather good.
Early betting thoughts:
Ricciardo podium
Safety car
Ricciardo is 4 for a podium. That requires him to be genuinely faster than Verstappen or for one of the leading trio to have a failure (and for his Renault to survive). It’s certainly credible, though I’m not sure 4 represents value.
A safety car is 1.36. Bit on the tight side.
In dramatic news, there don’t actually seem to be any grid penalties. Qualifying, setting a grid? What is this witchcraft? On the weather front, rain is a possibility but experience has taught me the weather’s hard to predict. So bear in mind the chance of substantial rainfall but don’t absolutely count on it.
In accordance with the principles laid down in the New Testament, I proceeded to peruse the markets entire to see if divine inspiration struck me.
Dual forecast, Hamilton/Bottas, 2.05
Win, Bottas, each way, 7.5
Win, Verstappen, each way, 3.8
Podium, Albon, 6
Not to be classified, Grosjean, 3.25
Not to be classified, Ricciardo, 5
The weirdly long odds on Bottas made me wonder if I’d missed something. His lap time in qualifying was a tiny margin, two-hundredths, ahead of Verstappen but I didn’t recall that from the time so set about checking if any times had been eliminated for exceeding track limits. It seems not, making the gap seem rather odd. Annoying, as I’d thought the dual forecast bet might be an easy one to make.
That puts me in two minds about the dual forecast bet (ironically). In the dry it might still be good value but Bottas has had a bad habit, as I’ve discovered backing him a few times on what should’ve been slam dunk top 2 finishes, of underperforming, whereas Verstappen’s wringing the maximum out of his car. And if it’s wet I think the Dutchman will not only be far ahead of Bottas but may even be able to take the fight to Bottas. This may rule out the dual forecast and Bottas win bet. On the other hand, his Q1 and Q2 runs were very comparable to Hamilton and it may be the market is getting carried away with a scrappy Q3.
Verstappen to win at 3.8 is annoyingly just inside the odds needed to be green if he’s top 2. And he’s 5.9 to win on Betfair. I think I’d be more inclined to take that and hedge, but I still think, especially if it’s dry, that Hamilton’s a strong favourite.
Albon’s been impressive this weekend and should be next in line, based on his car, for a podium position, but it does require someone ahead of him to go backwards. 6 is ok, but not outstanding.
Grosjean not to be classified is due to both the Haas having a tendency to retire and Grosjean having a tendency to retire. And if it’s rainy that just makes it likelier.
Ricciardo not being classified is based on a combination of the Renault having the odd gremlin, including the BBW problem in qualifying. If that recurs during the race then they’ll be compelled to box and retire.
A major question for both betting and the race is whether Bottas just screwed up in Q3 and is actually just a tenth or two off Hamilton. That, and the potential for rain, could determine how things turn out.
Knotty.
I’ve decided to back Grosjean at 3.25 and Ricciardo at 5 not to be classified, splitting a single stake between them. I’ve also backed Bottas, each way, to win at 7.5. Whilst I’d like to see Verstappen fighting it out with the Mercedes I think the Silver Arrows are just a step ahead and suspect the narrow gap in qualifying is due to a driver error rather than things genuinely being like that.
As usual with that sort Grosjean/Ricciardo of bet it’ll count as one (due to a single stake being halved) rather than two bets.
Let’s hope Hamilton’s car fails to start and Bottas cruises to victory.
Morris Dancer
In the first part of qualifying Ferrari struggled to escape, but managed to do so by the skin of their teeth. The Haas and Alfa Romeos were not so fortunate, and Latifi also failed to progress.
Ferrari were glad of Russell in Q2 as the Briton was the only man slower than them. Mercedes, Verstappen, and Racing Point all set their times on the medium, but the competition forced Racing Point to shift to the soft tyre, which pushed both AlphaTauris into the elimination zone. Very tight in the midfield.
Q3 was predictable with Hamilton fastest and Bottas 2nd, but a mile ahead of the rest of the field, but did have a surprise or two. Ricciardo was faster than Verstappen on the first run, forcing the Dutchman to improve (which he duly did). Nevertheless, the Renault’s looking very tasty especially in the Aussie’s talented hands. He ended up 4th with Ocon 6th and Albon (also looking good) between them.
Sainz was 7th, ahead of Perez, Stroll, and a slower than expected Norris. Excepting the probable procession of the front row, the field from 3rd to 12th looks very competitive indeed.
One note of warning on the Aussie front: Ricciardo did have a brake-by-wire (BBW) problem during qualifying. It was resolved, obviously, but that may be an ill omen for Sunday. Which would be a shame because he and Renault look rather good.
Early betting thoughts:
Ricciardo podium
Safety car
Ricciardo is 4 for a podium. That requires him to be genuinely faster than Verstappen or for one of the leading trio to have a failure (and for his Renault to survive). It’s certainly credible, though I’m not sure 4 represents value.
A safety car is 1.36. Bit on the tight side.
In dramatic news, there don’t actually seem to be any grid penalties. Qualifying, setting a grid? What is this witchcraft? On the weather front, rain is a possibility but experience has taught me the weather’s hard to predict. So bear in mind the chance of substantial rainfall but don’t absolutely count on it.
In accordance with the principles laid down in the New Testament, I proceeded to peruse the markets entire to see if divine inspiration struck me.
Dual forecast, Hamilton/Bottas, 2.05
Win, Bottas, each way, 7.5
Win, Verstappen, each way, 3.8
Podium, Albon, 6
Not to be classified, Grosjean, 3.25
Not to be classified, Ricciardo, 5
The weirdly long odds on Bottas made me wonder if I’d missed something. His lap time in qualifying was a tiny margin, two-hundredths, ahead of Verstappen but I didn’t recall that from the time so set about checking if any times had been eliminated for exceeding track limits. It seems not, making the gap seem rather odd. Annoying, as I’d thought the dual forecast bet might be an easy one to make.
That puts me in two minds about the dual forecast bet (ironically). In the dry it might still be good value but Bottas has had a bad habit, as I’ve discovered backing him a few times on what should’ve been slam dunk top 2 finishes, of underperforming, whereas Verstappen’s wringing the maximum out of his car. And if it’s wet I think the Dutchman will not only be far ahead of Bottas but may even be able to take the fight to Bottas. This may rule out the dual forecast and Bottas win bet. On the other hand, his Q1 and Q2 runs were very comparable to Hamilton and it may be the market is getting carried away with a scrappy Q3.
Verstappen to win at 3.8 is annoyingly just inside the odds needed to be green if he’s top 2. And he’s 5.9 to win on Betfair. I think I’d be more inclined to take that and hedge, but I still think, especially if it’s dry, that Hamilton’s a strong favourite.
Albon’s been impressive this weekend and should be next in line, based on his car, for a podium position, but it does require someone ahead of him to go backwards. 6 is ok, but not outstanding.
Grosjean not to be classified is due to both the Haas having a tendency to retire and Grosjean having a tendency to retire. And if it’s rainy that just makes it likelier.
Ricciardo not being classified is based on a combination of the Renault having the odd gremlin, including the BBW problem in qualifying. If that recurs during the race then they’ll be compelled to box and retire.
A major question for both betting and the race is whether Bottas just screwed up in Q3 and is actually just a tenth or two off Hamilton. That, and the potential for rain, could determine how things turn out.
Knotty.
I’ve decided to back Grosjean at 3.25 and Ricciardo at 5 not to be classified, splitting a single stake between them. I’ve also backed Bottas, each way, to win at 7.5. Whilst I’d like to see Verstappen fighting it out with the Mercedes I think the Silver Arrows are just a step ahead and suspect the narrow gap in qualifying is due to a driver error rather than things genuinely being like that.
As usual with that sort Grosjean/Ricciardo of bet it’ll count as one (due to a single stake being halved) rather than two bets.
Let’s hope Hamilton’s car fails to start and Bottas cruises to victory.
Morris Dancer
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