70th Anniversary Grand Prix: pre-race 2020

Quite an intriguing grid for the race ahead, with Bottas nabbing pole from Hamilton, and Hulkenberg well and truly returning with a fantastic 3rd on the grid.

Q1 saw us say au revoir to Magnussen and the two Alfa Romeos, as well as Latifi. Kvyat put in a very fast lap but got it deleted due to exceeding track limits which means he starts way down in 16th and may have damaged the floor into the bargain.

Q2 was as competitive as expected with many teams having one driver fail to proceed. Ocon, Vettel, and Sainz were all eliminated whilst their team mates progressed, with Grosjean and Russell also leaving at this stage.

The Mercedes were ahead by miles, but in the final Q3 runs it was Bottas who marginally got ahead of Hamilton thanks to a very slightly off the pace first sector by the Briton. And who’s right behind them? Hulkenberg, who qualified in a fantastic 3rd. Immensely impressive, and a third of a second ahead of his team mate. Verstappen completes the second row, and it also the only top 10 chap starting on the hard tyre which could prove very handy.

Ricciardo and Stroll comprise row three, and it’ll be interesting to see what the Aussie can do from there given how fast he was last weekend. Gasly did very nicely to put his AlphaTauri up in 7th, just ahead of Leclerc, which shows how much further up the grid Kvyat could and should have been. And how far Ferrari’s fortunes have fallen. Albon and Norris complete the top 10, with Albon half a second off his team mate.

Likely to be another private Mercedes duel at the front but it’s very tasty from third downwards.

Early betting thoughts:

Ricciardo podium

Kvyat points

Ricciardo is 4 for a podium. I fully expect him to be first in line if woe should strike those ahead of him in seemingly faster cars. 4 might be a little short, as everyone will be keenly aware of tyre problems and the Mercedes’ pace should give them enough to easily retain the lead even if everyone else does one stop fewer.

Kvyat is 6.5 for points. He starts 16th but had the pace to be top 10, has choice of starting tyres, and was also performing very well last week (when a reliability failure ended his race). Pretty tempted by this, to be honest.

Weather forecast is for it to be hot and dry, around 28C feeling like 32C.

Ocon was penalised three places for impeding Russell, promoting Vettel, Sainz, and Grosjean. 

Browsing the markets, the following caught my eye:

Verstappen, win each way, 11

Unfortunately the each way is only top 2, but Verstappen was pretty close last weekend and may’ve won but for the final pit stop. 

I’m backing the Kvyat for points bet at 6.5 (7 with boost). He’s got the pace to do it, I think. Or certainly to have a chance that’s better by far than the odds suggest.

Let’s hope the race is exciting and profitable.

Morris Dancer