Singapore: pre-race 2018
My predictions were
entirely wrong, both regarding the bet itself and general pace. Who
would’ve guessed Ferrari would be third fastest? Not me.
The first session was
mostly predictable, with the Williams rather sadly off the pace (over
a second behind the McLaren of Vandoorne. Hartley also failed to
escape as did, more surprisingly, Magnussen. His team mate would go
on to reach Q3.
Gasly was the slowest
man in Q2, right behind both Saubers. A Spanish pairing were the
fastest chaps eliminated, Alonso ahead of Sainz. (As an aside,
everybody in the top 10 had to qualify on the hypersofts, contrary to
suggestions that a divergent strategy might work. Ferrari tried the
ultrasofts, as Mercedes did in Q1, and, likewise, found they were
just too slow).
I expected Ferrari to
be fastest in qualifying. Which shows what I know. It turned out to
be a three-way fight between them, Mercedes and Red Bull. Hamilton
put in a fantastic lap, and the closest anyone could get was
Verstappen, three-tenths off the pace. Vettel was a similar margin
further back, and will start the grid 3rd, just ahead of
Bottas. Raikkonen will lead the third row, with Ricciardo in 6th.
With Hamilton and
Vettel vying for the title and Verstappen acutely aware that this
might be his last real chance at a race victory for quite some time,
the first lap could be rather spicy.
Perez was best of the
rest, a second off Ricciardo but four-tenths ahead of Grosjean. Ocon
and Hulkenberg complete the fifth row.
The race should be dry.
There’s lots of talk of a two stop strategy but given the
difficulty of overtaking and the nonsense we saw at Monaco this year
I’d be surprised if people didn’t try and get by with a single
stop.
Potential bets:
Perez podium
Renault/Force India
double score
Raikkonen podium
Verstappen win
[The markets were slow
going up so I waited until the following morning].
The Perez podium
thinking is based on his excellent record on street circuits, and the
reliability of both car and driver, (in contrast to some of those
ahead of him). He’s 21 for a podium (tied with Grosjean). There are
six chaps in faster cars ahead of him. Getting a podium, unless
weirdness occurs, requires four of them to fail. I think 21 is
perhaps a little short.
Force India has a good
finishing record and two good drivers, Renault similarly (slightly
less reliable and the drivers start a little further down the grid).
They’re 1.9 and 2.25 respectively for double points finishes.
That’s worth considering.
Raikkonen makes a habit
of picking up the podium finishes. He’s 3 for a podium. Bit short.
(And fell to 2.87 overnight)
Verstappen is 4.33 for
the win. He starts 2nd on a track where overtaking is very
difficult and almost certainly has the pace to keep that place.
However, Red Bull does have a bad DNF record. And the odds were cut
to 3.75 the next day.
As usual, I perused the
markets. When they finally awoke, about 20 hours or so after
qualifying ended.
One thing did leap out
at me, and is my tip for the race:
Raikkonen, winner
without Hamilton/Vettel, each way (fifth the odds top three) at 7.5
(8 with boost)
Pays out if he’s top
5, or top 3 if the title contenders both DNF. Given that the top six
are a day and a half ahead of everyone else, it’d be quite
unfortunate if the each way aspect didn’t come off, and there’s
always the chance it’ll win outright.
The race starts at just
after 1pm (nearly an hour earlier than qualifying yesterday, oddly).
Morris Dancer
Comments
Post a Comment