Russia: post-race analysis 2018

Two bets and two wins. What an odd race weekend. There was also rather more on-track action than last year, mostly thanks to the two Red Bulls carving through the field, and no safety car.

Off the line, Vettel got a great start but was unable to capitalise as Hamilton benefited from Bottas’ slipstream. Further back, Verstappen had a flyer and Ricciardo left the handbrake on. Leclerc made good progress, passing Ocon, I think.

The Renaults and Red Bulls started on the soft tyre. So did Gasly, with Hartley opting for the hypersoft, but the Toro Rossos both had weird spins on the same lap and ended up retiring (not quite sure why, suspicion is an identical mechanical failure).

The Red Bulls, particularly Verstappen, were racing through the order, whilst those at the sharp end pulled away from the midfield but were reasonably close together.

Pit stops came relatively early, around 8-16 (of 53 laps) for those on the hypersoft. Bottas pitted first. When Vettel followed he emerged just behind the Finn, but when Hamilton did likewise the following lap he found himself effectively 3^rd, behind Vettel (Verstappen was leading the race but required a pit stop). However, Vettel locked up at the worst moment, and Hamilton was able to pass him. Yet another costly mistake for the Ferrari driver.

Further back, Leclerc was effectively 7^th (Hulkenberg, ahead, had to pit), running a lonely but competent race. Magnussen was some way behind, holding up the Force India pairing. Despite a swap to see if Perez could have better luck, it didn’t work, and the Force Indias switched back again. Rather more civilised than what happened in Singapore.

At the sharp end, Verstappen, despite being on very old soft tyres, was still going at quite a pace, but backing the Mercedes into Vettel. The Silver Arrows ordered Bottas to resume wingman duties and let Hamilton past. Tactically smart, but harsh on the Finn, who duly did as instructed. Later, when the race was safe, the order was maintained and Hamilton got the win.

Verstappen pitted with just 10 laps left, switching onto the ultra- rather than hypersoft. They didn’t really live up to their name and, if anything, he seemed a shade slower than he’d been on his ancient soft tyres.

Relatively unusually, all the big 6 finished, with Mercedes ahead of Ferrari and Red Bull last. Leclerc, Magnussen, Ocon, and Perez also score points. The Toro Rossos were the only cars not to be classified.

Constructors’:

Mercedes 495

Ferrari 442

Red Bull 292

Renault 91

Haas 80

McLaren 58

Force India 35

Toro Rosso 30

Sauber 27

Williams 7

Still a tall order for Force India to overtake McLaren but it’s not impossible, especially given the latter team now seems to be vying with Williams for slowest car on the grid. Haas could yet take 4^th from Renault. Neither looked tasty today.

Drivers’:

Hamilton 306

Vettel 256

Bottas 189

Raikkonen 186

There are five races left. Vettel needs to average a 10 point advantage. Hard to see that happening. Not impossible but almost certainly requires Mercedes to have some DNFs.

The next race is Japan, at the very next weekend. It’s entirely possible it’ll be very wet so keep an eye on the weather forecast.

Morris Dancer