Italy: post-race analysis 2018

It isn’t very often we have a race that’s exciting from start to finish, and green to boot. But we got one today.

Off the line it was close but formation flying at the sharp end. Further back, Hartley suffered misfortune as he was taken from both sides, Vandoorne cutting across from the left whilst a Sauber sandwiched him from the right. The Kiwi had an immediate DNF, which wasn’t remotely his fault.

It was very tight amongst the top three and into a chicane Hamilton drew alongside Vettel. The German was spun around and ended up with front wing damage and pretty much last. A racing incident, in my view (one hopes Ferrari won’t accuse Mercedes of ‘interesting tactics’). This brought out a safety car, which is surprisingly rare at Monza. The grid-penalised Ricciardo and Hulkenberg came in for new tyres, the German attempting a full stint, effectively, on soft tyres. Vettel also came in for a fresh nose and some soft tyres.

At the restart, Hamilton was right in Raikkonen’s slipstream. He managed to pass the Finn, but about a lap later the Iceman returned the favour, and this time retained the lead. A little further back, Verstappen was, surprisingly, keeping Bottas behind him lap after lap. A long way further back Ricciardo and Vettel (and then Vettel and Ricciardo when the German passed the Aussie) were cutting their way through the field.

Raikkonen was consistently a second or so ahead of Hamilton, and Ferrari boxed first. After that, both he and Hamilton drove as fast as they could. I expected the Briton to pit within a few laps, but he stayed out longer. Quite a bit longer. The Finn had caned it and perhaps overdone the stress on his tyres. Eventually, the Englishman was pitted and emerged something like 8s behind. At this stage, Verstappen had pitted (Vettel had had to have a second stop so the Dutchman remained ahead of him) and Bottas was being kept out to act as a rear gunner.

That said, Bottas was setting personal bests so he was hardly trundling around. However, he was slowing down Raikkonen significantly, enabling Hamilton to close up around a second a lap. Bottas’ tyres were clearly iffy, and he was boxed late, emerging some way behind Verstappen. But he’d done the job, and when he entered the pit lane Hamilton was less than a second behind Raikkonen.

And yet, the Finn was keeping him behind. Hamilton had locked up (not very badly, but still not great) and had a bit of a flat spot, whilst the Ferrari’s rear tyre was not looking MOT-worthy.

The gap remained very small but consistent. Hamilton finally got close enough and passed Raikkonen, and then pulled away effortlessly, highlighting just what a great defensive effort Raikkonen had been putting in to keep the significantly faster car (with DRS) behind him for so many laps. A great many F1 fans will be saddened that Raikkonen, who is immensely popular not only with Ferrari fans but almost everyone, did not get the win, but he did drive extremely well.

But the race wasn’t over yet. Bottas, with fresher tyres, was hunting down Verstappen. The Dutchman took an unorthodox approach to the laws of time and space, which resulted in contact with the Finn, forcing Bottas to carry straight on at the first corner. Verstappen duly got a 5s time penalty, which he duly bitched about. This ended up not only gifting Bottas the final spot on the podium, but allowed Vettel to finish 4^th, one spot ahead of Verstappen.

But what of Ricciardo? This may shock you, dear reader, so do sit down. His car broke down. It may have been the engine. I know, I was astonished too. Earlier in the race Alonso had had to box and retire, but those chaps (including Hartley) were the only DNFs.

Behind the top five, Grosjean scarcely got a mention but finished 6^th, ahead of the Force Indias of Ocon and Perez. Not bad considering Perez didn’t even make Q2 yesterday and the team almost ceased to exist recently.

Sainz finished 9^th and Stroll nabbed the final point for Williams. Sirotkin, alas, was 11^th and remains the only chap without a point.

However, he finished ahead of Leclerc, which is no mean feat these days. Vandoorne, Hulkenberg, Gasly, Ericsson, and Magnussen were all outside the points as well.

Drivers’:

Hamilton 256

Vettel 226

Raikkonen 164

Bottas 159

Hamilton’s lead should’ve been reduced today. Instead he extended it by a fair margin. I’ve criticised some of Hamilton’s lacklustre performances earlier in the season, but Vettel’s made some misjudgements. The charge against Bottas in Baku was nice to see but ultimately failed to come off and cost a lot of points. The error in the rain of Hockenheim cost him 25 and more (net, as Hamilton scored and Vettel got nothing at a race he should’ve won). And today, Vettel’s stubbornness exceeded his judgement. If Hamilton’s heart has sometimes let him down, so has Vettel’s head.

Constructors’:

Mercedes 415

Ferrari 390

Red Bull 248

Haas 84

Renault 84

McLaren 52

Toro Rosso 30

Force India 28

Sauber 19

Williams 5

Haas and Renault are now tied, with stronger recent results for the Haas. However, circuits like Singapore and Russia, up next, should help the Renaults fight back. Meanwhile, Force India are roaring up the table and have not only Toro Rosso but McLaren in their sights.

In the last few races, Ferrari should’ve taken lumps out of Mercedes, but have not. Misfortune can happen, but today was misjudgement. They do have the car to win. But right now, Hamilton is beating Vettel.

Morris Dancer