Italy: pre-race 2018
Qualifying was very
tight throughout. And rather entertaining.
Despite major penalties
for Ericsson, Hulkenberg, and Ricciardo, all three ran in the first
session. Somewhat surprisingly, the Saubers were off the pace, with
both exiting at this stage. Less surprising, alas, was that Vandoorne
came last. One fears this season may be his last. Hartley failed to
progress as did, shockingly, Perez. The Mexican was one-thousandth of
a second behind Grosjean. To put the closeness in context, eight
chaps were on 1:28.8, including Perez and Leclerc. Superfine margin,
but that’s what F1 is about.
In Q2 Ricciardo and
Hulkenberg did not set times. The Aussie relaxed in the pits whilst
the German had a little trundle but didn’t clock a lap time.
Sirotkin qualified 12th, with Magnussen ahead and Alonso
behind him. However, the Dane and Spaniard had a very weird coming
together. Both were on hot laps, and managed to squabble over track
territory, ruining both laps. Unsure what penalty, if any, will be
dished out to whom.
And so to the final
session. Throughout qualifying Vettel had seemed fastest with
Raikkonen and Hamilton very close behind and Bottas strangely
lagging. Initially, Vettel was ahead, on track, of Raikkonen to
provide a tow (handy on a circuit which is essentially straights and
some tiny corners). On the first run, Hamilton was fastest by a
hundredth, with Vettel almost a tenth up on third-placed Raikkonen.
Oddly, Vettel again emerged ahead of Raikkonen. On the final run, all
three improved but it was the Finn who snatched pole, with his German
colleague just behind and Hamilton starting in 3rd. Bottas
was a few tenths further back, but almost a second ahead of
Verstappen.
The lower half of the
top 10 were Grosjean, Sainz, Ocon, Gasly, and Stroll. Rare to see
five different teams in that part of the grid, but it was due to a
combination of the closeness of competition, some penalties, and
perhaps the Alonso/Magnussen coming together.
After the result was
known Vettel said, over the radio, that they’d talk about it later.
I wouldn’t say it was menacing but would be unsurprised if a rumour
started that he was playing Hans Gruber in a Die Hard remake. He and
Raikkonen get along very well, which is extremely unusual in F1 for
team mates, so one suspects a strategist or bigwig will be getting
the Vettel death stare.
Anyway, with all that
known (and adding that the weather forecast has been atrociously
inaccurate, again, but indicates the race will be dry), these betting
thoughts came to mind:
Ricciardo, top 6
Vettel, lead lap 1
Verstappen, not to be
classified
Ricciardo is 1.9 to
finish in the top 6. Unless he has a DNF, I think that’s pretty
good value. The Red Bull’s weakness is its straight line speed.
However, in qualifying Verstappen was three-tenths ahead of Grosjean,
and that’s with the so-called party mode deficit. On the other
hand, the Red Bull does have a poor finishing record and Monza’s a
place that has close barriers and gravel traps.
The Betfair odds on
Vettel leading lap 1 are a paltry 2.6. Entirely credible but too
short.
Verstappen is 4.33 not
to be classified. He starts high up, as usual, but does have the new
engine. There was (and perhaps is) some concern that it might be a
little bit unreliable (even more so than the standard Renault).
I
perused the markets and saw:
Hamilton, win (each
way), 7
Mercedes, most points,
5.5
The top three were
extremely close in qualifying. On pace, they should remain the top
three in the trace but if the Ferrari qualifying advantage is real
I’d expect Hamilton to be able to pass one of the Ferraris, perhaps
even both.
On a related note, if
either Ferrari has a DNF then Mercedes are a shoe-in (shoo in? I can
never recall) to inherit most points. Although I think the Hamilton
bet likely offers more value.
Gave serious thought to
both the Ricciardo and the Hamilton bets but I like the Hamilton one
rather more. I’ve backed the Briton to win, each way, at 7 (that’s
a third the odds to be top 2). I think he’s got a good chance of
overtaking one Ferrari and a plausible, though outside, shot at
passing both.
It seems Ferrari has a
performance advantage in qualifying but the necessary implication of
that is that the race pace of the Mercedes will be relatively better.
Not only that, if it rains (the forecast says it won’t but race
forecasts both this weekend and this season generally have been poor)
that’ll assist Hamilton too.
Anyway, after the
flurry of bets last time just the one in Monza.
Morris Dancer
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