Russia: pre-race 2018
Well, tickle my
tangerines. Must admit, I thought Hamilton very likely to get pole,
with Bottas in with a good shot of second, and was quite surprised to
see the Finn fastest. Good start to the weekend, and may make the
race a little more interesting.
The coverage I had of
qualifying was, er, limited. To intermittent bits of text (I was
attempting to navigate my way across the Atlantic Ocean, in a beer
barrel, equipped only with a road map of Brazil, so you can
appreciate I had other things on my mind).
First session was more
of the same, with McLaren and Williams slowest. Hartley also failed
to escape.
An interesting thing
happened in Q2. Renault had a cunning plan. They didn’t bother
running. Knowing Gasly and the Red Bulls had penalties coming, Sainz
and Hulkenberg occupied themselves with crosswords whilst the others
raced away needlessly in hypersofts. The Renaults guaranteed
themselves 11th and 12th on the grid, with
choice of tyres. No idea how useful that will be, but we’ll find
out tomorrow.
All five cars,
therefore, that were eliminated in Q2 did not set a time.
Hamilton led both
sessions to date, but could he repeat the fate and claim another
pole? On the first runs, Bottas was four-thousandths faster, and the
Finn increased the margin later to grab an unlikely pole, Hamilton
alongside him. Vettel was half a second off Bottas’ pace, with
Raikkonen even further adrift. Ominous for the Ferraris, who may be
rather grateful the Red Bulls are starting in Vladivostok.
Who was best of the
rest? Magnussen. Given Haas, Force India and Sauber all had both
drivers in Q3 it was interesting to see just how jumbled they were.
Magnussen led Ocon, Leclerc, Perez, Grosjean and Ericsson. All will
be starting on the hypersofts.
Worth noting both of
the last two races have featured only four DNFs, each time three
occurring on the first lap when a safety car also emerged. Forecast
is for it to be dry.
Initial betting
thoughts:
No Safety Car
Lay Bottas lead lap 1
Renault double score
Lay Ricciardo top 6
No Safety Car is 3.25.
Perhaps a little mean given recent history.
Unhelpfully, the
Betfair lead lap 1 market consisted of Any Other Driver and no-one
else.
Renault are 2.3 for a
double points finish. Neither terrible nor fantastic.
There’s a lay value
of 2.8 on Ricciardo to be top 6. Given that, I’d sooner back the
not to be classified odds of 3.5.
I perused the markets,
when they finally went up, and saw the following:
Leclerc to win without
big 6, 5.5
Perez to win without
big 6, 9.5
Force India double
points finish 1.9
Red Bull, most team
points, 67
I do like the winner
without the big 6 market. Magnussen and Ocon start ahead of Leclerc,
for it is he, and Perez. However, it’s a long run to turn 1 and if
either Magnussen or Ocon cock it up they’ll be passed with great
rapidity. The each way aspects is a third the odds for top 2 (outside
the big 6). Leclerc starts one place ahead of Perez. Magnussen and
Ocon are both below 3.
Force India have two
cars starting in the top 10 and an excellent record this year. On the
other hand, 1.9 is a bit tight.
Red
Bull to score most points may sound outlandish, and that certainly
explains the odds. However, there is an outside shot of it coming
off. The top three teams are miles faster than everyone else. If a
Ferrari and Mercedes tangle on the first lap and take one another
out, there is a chance, perhaps a likelihood, that we end up with 3rd
and 4th
being Red Bull. If that is the case, they’ll top score with 17
points. Of course, if both Ferraris and a Mercedes or both Mercedes
and a Ferrari get taken out, the odds only get better. However, that
does rely on a slice of luck. A big slice. And neither Red Bull
having a DNF. But then, the odds are 67.
As
far as I can tell, Red Bull have only top scored once this year, at
the Chinese Grand Prix (having started 5 and 6).
I’m quite tempted by
the Red Bull bet, long odds as it is. The winner outside the big 6
market appeals to me too. As always, I decided the best way to decide
was to sacrifice a goat to Athena and enter a meditative trance.
In the end, I decided
to split one stake between Leclerc and Perez winning without the big
6 (each way for both). That’s at 5.5 and 9.5 respectively.
I think the race starts
shortly after midday, which is oddly early. Anyway, we shall see
whether it’s entertaining. The circuit isn’t the best, alas.
Morris Dancer
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