Russia: pre-race 2018


Well, tickle my tangerines. Must admit, I thought Hamilton very likely to get pole, with Bottas in with a good shot of second, and was quite surprised to see the Finn fastest. Good start to the weekend, and may make the race a little more interesting.

The coverage I had of qualifying was, er, limited. To intermittent bits of text (I was attempting to navigate my way across the Atlantic Ocean, in a beer barrel, equipped only with a road map of Brazil, so you can appreciate I had other things on my mind).

First session was more of the same, with McLaren and Williams slowest. Hartley also failed to escape.

An interesting thing happened in Q2. Renault had a cunning plan. They didn’t bother running. Knowing Gasly and the Red Bulls had penalties coming, Sainz and Hulkenberg occupied themselves with crosswords whilst the others raced away needlessly in hypersofts. The Renaults guaranteed themselves 11th and 12th on the grid, with choice of tyres. No idea how useful that will be, but we’ll find out tomorrow.

All five cars, therefore, that were eliminated in Q2 did not set a time.

Hamilton led both sessions to date, but could he repeat the fate and claim another pole? On the first runs, Bottas was four-thousandths faster, and the Finn increased the margin later to grab an unlikely pole, Hamilton alongside him. Vettel was half a second off Bottas’ pace, with Raikkonen even further adrift. Ominous for the Ferraris, who may be rather grateful the Red Bulls are starting in Vladivostok.

Who was best of the rest? Magnussen. Given Haas, Force India and Sauber all had both drivers in Q3 it was interesting to see just how jumbled they were. Magnussen led Ocon, Leclerc, Perez, Grosjean and Ericsson. All will be starting on the hypersofts.

Worth noting both of the last two races have featured only four DNFs, each time three occurring on the first lap when a safety car also emerged. Forecast is for it to be dry.

Initial betting thoughts:
No Safety Car
Lay Bottas lead lap 1
Renault double score
Lay Ricciardo top 6

No Safety Car is 3.25. Perhaps a little mean given recent history.

Unhelpfully, the Betfair lead lap 1 market consisted of Any Other Driver and no-one else.

Renault are 2.3 for a double points finish. Neither terrible nor fantastic.

There’s a lay value of 2.8 on Ricciardo to be top 6. Given that, I’d sooner back the not to be classified odds of 3.5.

I perused the markets, when they finally went up, and saw the following:
Leclerc to win without big 6, 5.5
Perez to win without big 6, 9.5
Force India double points finish 1.9
Red Bull, most team points, 67

I do like the winner without the big 6 market. Magnussen and Ocon start ahead of Leclerc, for it is he, and Perez. However, it’s a long run to turn 1 and if either Magnussen or Ocon cock it up they’ll be passed with great rapidity. The each way aspects is a third the odds for top 2 (outside the big 6). Leclerc starts one place ahead of Perez. Magnussen and Ocon are both below 3.

Force India have two cars starting in the top 10 and an excellent record this year. On the other hand, 1.9 is a bit tight.

Red Bull to score most points may sound outlandish, and that certainly explains the odds. However, there is an outside shot of it coming off. The top three teams are miles faster than everyone else. If a Ferrari and Mercedes tangle on the first lap and take one another out, there is a chance, perhaps a likelihood, that we end up with 3rd and 4th being Red Bull. If that is the case, they’ll top score with 17 points. Of course, if both Ferraris and a Mercedes or both Mercedes and a Ferrari get taken out, the odds only get better. However, that does rely on a slice of luck. A big slice. And neither Red Bull having a DNF. But then, the odds are 67.

As far as I can tell, Red Bull have only top scored once this year, at the Chinese Grand Prix (having started 5 and 6).

I’m quite tempted by the Red Bull bet, long odds as it is. The winner outside the big 6 market appeals to me too. As always, I decided the best way to decide was to sacrifice a goat to Athena and enter a meditative trance.

In the end, I decided to split one stake between Leclerc and Perez winning without the big 6 (each way for both). That’s at 5.5 and 9.5 respectively.

I think the race starts shortly after midday, which is oddly early. Anyway, we shall see whether it’s entertaining. The circuit isn’t the best, alas.

Morris Dancer

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