Canada: post-race analysis 2018

Another red race, and not a classic to watch, either. At least this time it was misjudgement rather than the invincible hand of ill-fortune which saw it fail (I thought Ricciardo would have better race pace than he did, including better than his team mate. He rose two places, but three were required).

Off the line, Verstappen started well and nearly got past Bottas, who drove robustly (but fairly) to retain his position. Raikkonen got close to Hamilton, had to back off, enabling Ricciardo to just about squeeze past the Finn.

Further back, Stroll had another flying start (a good habit of his). Unfortunately, this also meant he ended up tangling with Hartley in what I’d describe as a racing incident. Both men were out, the track was strewn with debris, and before the first lap ended we had a safety car.

Alas, that was almost it as far as on-track excitement went.

When the safety car came in, Vettel pulled effortlessly away from Bottas. Whilst the teams all looked closely matched, gaps soon opened up and, although they’d become narrower at times, they never really changed much. The only top end position change was Red Bull managing to get Ricciardo past Hamilton in the pit stops.

Further back, things were a little more interesting. Ocon had managed to pass both Renaults. They looked faster but couldn’t pass. However, Ocon was unlucky to have a lengthy pit stop due to the rear jack not playing for a few seconds, enabling both Hulkenberg and Sainz to pass him. Perez suffered misfortune which necessitated an early stop (I think), shoving him towards the back of the field.

In the scrap for the final points position, Leclerc was once again burnishing his credentials by managing to keep a feisty Alonso behind him. Unfortunately this duel ended (the gap had risen a bit by then) when Alonso suffered a reliability problem that forced him to box and retire to avoid the engine exploding.

The next man was Gasly. He was buoyed when the team told him Leclerc was suffering brake problems (Canada’s hard on brakes, and in Monaco the Monegasque had been hit with a total brake failure that put him out of the race). Despite this, perhaps due to old tyres, Gasly couldn’t close up on, let alone pass, Leclerc, who got another point. Sauber have got themselves a rather good chap in the cockpit.

Behind Gasly was Grosjean, who went well over half the race distance before pitting. He was relatively close to the points, and a second safety car probably would’ve seen him nab a few. He drove well throughout but the qualifying problem proved too much to overcome.

At the sharp end, Vettel held on for a victory so flawless he won it twice (the chequered flag was waved a lap early, prompting a calm rebuke on the radio from the German). Bottas had a strong performance to keep 2^nd, and Verstappen drove without error all weekend (first time this year) for 3^rd. Ricciardo got 4^th, Hamilton only 5^th, and Raikkonen 6^th.

Surprisingly, therefore, Vettel managed to overturn Hamilton’s reasonably large 14 point lead in a single race (and one Hamilton has won more than anybody else on the grid) to lead the Briton by 1 point in the Drivers’:

Vettel 121

Hamilton 120

Bottas 86

Ricciardo 84

Raikkonen 68

But for the Baku puncture, Bottas would be on 111, Hamilton 113 and Vettel something like 119. Bit of a shame that happened, but there we are. Currently looks like a two horse race at the sharp end, but Vettel seems to have more pace, Hamilton more reliability.

Constructors:

Mercedes 206

Ferrari 189

Red Bull 134

Renault 56

McLaren 40

Force India 28

Toro Rosso 19

Haas 19

Sauber 12

Williams 4

The result in Canada helps cement Renault’s grip on 4^th, and Sauber’s creeping up on Toro Rosso and Haas. It’s not impossible that Leclerc will drag his team from 9^th to 8^th, or even 7^th, though I suspect they’ll end up 9^th. The Haas has decent inherent pace, and the Toro Rosso is reasonably good. Bad race for McLaren. Maybe their first without a points finish this year?

In a fortnight, we return to France for the first of three races on the bounce. Apparently they’re all power circuits. I imagine Vettel is cackling with glee like a Bond villain in his volcano lair.

Morris Dancer