France: pre-race 2018


It rained in third practice, and rained heavily again in the Formula 2 race that followed qualifying, but, alas, qualifying itself was dry. Not only that, the Mercedes were very strong due to their new new engine (that is, a new engine on a new spec. There had been speculation that the new engine would be a new old engine, but it seems the Silver Arrows got on top of reliability concerns). Clearly, I need to work on my rain dance.

In Q1, the two Williams were slowest. No huge surprise there, but more unexpected was that both McLarens failed to progress. Hartley also failed to escape, which means both Saubers made Q2 for the first time since Ivarr the Boneless invaded Britain.

In Q2, Ericsson didn’t get any further, but his team mate Leclerc did (a full eight-tenths up on the Swede), making Q3 in impressive style. Neither Force India nor Gasly could go any further. Hulkenberg, who had been utterly dominant over his team mate in qualifying until recently, was outqualified by Sainz.

In the final session, Hamilton got pole a little over a tenth ahead of Bottas (as an aside, Ladbrokes had a special on a Mercedes front row at 5. I scoffed at it, with the sort of judgement that explains why this year hasn’t been fantastic). Vettel was next, with Verstappen three-tenths off his time. Ricciardo and Raikkonen comprise row three. Sainz follows (over a second off the Finn), with Leclerc lining up in 8th. Magnussen and Grosjean are next, presuming the Frenchman suffers no penalty. Unfortunately for him, again, he spun and had a low speed crash in Q3, which meant he didn’t put in a time.

At the sharp end, the Ferraris start on the ultrasoft tyres, the others around them on the supersoft.

Elsewhere, Mr. Sandpit helpfully mentioned the weather forecast, which includes a thunderstorm at the start of the race.

Early betting thoughts:
Forecast (top 2): Hamilton and Bottas
Renault double points
Mercedes top score
Safety car
Bottas win each way (top 2)

At the time of writing (exactly 7am on Sunday morning), there’s a 60% chance of rain for both hours of the race. Of course, that’s a 16% chance it’ll be dry throughout, and a 40% chance it’ll be dry for roughly half the race.

Annoyingly, a little while later Ladbrokes still only had 13 markets up. So, I had to twiddle my thumbs for some time (read a little of Musashi, by Eiji Yoshikawa, which I can recommend).

At 10am there were still just the 13 markets up. So, I looked at what I could.

A safety car was 1.57. With rain probable but not certain, that’s ok but not spectacular, particularly given the large amounts of weak-kneed run-off.

Bottas is 6 (third the odds top 2) to win (6.5 with boost). I think that’s worth considering. He’s been driving pretty well this year and if the Mercedes engine is as good in the race as qualifying then it may well be a two horse race.

That was the only thing that looked remotely worth backing, so back it I did.

Bottas, win each way 6 (third the odds top 2).

Race starts shortly after 3pm.

Morris Dancer

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