Canada: pre-race 2018
Qualifying was even
tighter than I’d imagined. Very mixed up grid at the sharp end,
including varying tyres. Could be intriguing.
Qualifying began with
yet more bad luck for Grosjean. The poor chap must’ve run over a
witch’s cat during pre-season testing. His engine ejected a
magnificent plume of smoke in the pit lane. Although he pulled over
and his engineers were able to wheel him back to his pit box, that
was the end of his session. In less surprising news, both Williams
failed to escape, and Ericsson was ahead only of Grosjean. Slightly
unexpectedly, Gasly was also eliminated, although that may have been
due to having to use an older, less powerful engine.
Q2 had an interesting
result, with the McLarens slowest (Alonso faster) and Leclerc
qualifying ahead of both of them in his Sauber. The Monegasque seems
to be doing rather well. Ahead of him, but by less than a tenth, were
Magnussen and Hartley. The Kiwi will be pleased to qualify well,
which may dampen rumours of his imminent firing (or not). At the
sharp end, the Mercedes and Ferraris used ultrasofts (the second
softest, and yes, the naming conventions are now faintly ridiculous)
for better longevity on the first stint in the race, the Red Bulls
(perhaps easier on their tyres) used the faster hypersofts. Hamilton
gave himself a fetching flat spot on his race tyres. May be able to
change that, not sure.
The second session also
saw a weird incident, with multiple cars backing up for space and
Vettel encountering them towards the end of a hot lap, which forced
him to abort. Searched for penalties, couldn’t find any info.
In Q3 things were tight
on the first runs. Vettel was fastest, Hamilton had a poor lap
(initially 5th), Raikkonen could’ve been a bit quicker.
On the second runs, Vettel retained poll, Bottas put in a stonking
lap for 2nd, and Verstappen was surprisingly quick in 3rd.
Hamilton could manage only 4th, Raikkonen slipping to 5th
as he fluffed his lap immediately and couldn’t improve. Ricciardo
was just 6th (apparently his qualifying performances in
Canada have historically been a bit lacklustre).
Things were pretty
tight between the top three teams. Given lack of qualifying mode for
the Red Bulls, does that bode well for them in the race?
Further back,
Hulkenberg put his beach towel back on the 7th spot
(nearly a second off Ricciardo’s time), followed closely by Ocon
and Sainz. Perez must’ve made an error (the Force Indias only had
one quick run) because he was half a second off Sainz’s time.
Weather forecast has an
almost 0% chance of rain.
Initial thoughts:
Red Bull top score
Ricciardo podium
The top scoring team
market wasn’t up, which is weird given how much time has passed
since qualifying and how competitive the teams appear to be.
Ricciardo is 5 for a
podium. Given he tends to qualify relatively poorly and the Red Bull
looks tasty on race pace, and starts on the best tyre, that’s
pretty tempting. I will check the markets for other stuff, but quite
content to take that if nothing else leaps out.
Other stuff I saw:
Renault are 2.25 for a
double points finish. They start in the top 10, both drivers are
good, and the qualifying performance deficit will be largely
eliminated in the race. Pretty good, though a problem with this sort
of bet is it requires both chaps to be ok, doubling the potential for
a problem.
Gasly is 2.75 to win
group 4 (also including the Williams and Ericsson). On pace, he
should do this easily. Reliability is the only question mark, I
think. He’s had a DNF at a third of races, with the Williams more
reliable (none for Stroll) and Ericsson likewise. Bit marginal, on
that basis.
Ricciardo’s also 26
for the win (third the odds for top 2). I prefer the podium bet, but
this is quite interesting too. Bottas starts 2nd but has
odds of 6.5 (behind both Hamilton and Verstappen, with Vettel rightly
favourite).
Just the one tip:
I’m perfectly happy
backing Ricciardo at 5 for a podium (rather odd to find something and
back it in a straightforward manner, but there we are). It's 5.25 with boost.
Race starts a smidgen
after 7pm, which is annoyingly late. Because of the finish time, the
post-race analysis will be up tomorrow at some point.
Morris Dancer
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