Early Canada ramble


Hey, kids.

Keeping the old three articles per weekend formula but having a crack at adding some other stuff too (bits of news, early thoughts on how things might go etc). My plan was to do this with short Youtube videos as well, but given I’ve spent most of the last few days trying not to vomit my lungs, that’s on hold.

Anyway, early thoughts on the circuit of Canada, the prospects of the top dogs, and the prospects of the rest.

The circuit

Canada is a great old track, a place of high speeds, and slow corners. The hairpin provides opportunity to overtake under braking, and if that doesn’t work there are a couple of straights (the first being rather long) to get the job done.

Barriers are close in places, particularly the Wall of Champions, which sits adjacent to the chicane connecting the two straights.

Weather can be soggy. The 2011 race, which was magnificent, was subject to a downpour that made it last over four hours before Button, who visited the pits half a dozen times, went from last (around halfway through the race) to win, passing Vettel on the final lap. F1 bosses being what they are, they decided this could never be allowed to happen again and slapped on a four hour absolute time limit on all future races.

Straight line speed is very handy, and the corners are slow.

The top dogs

A Renault engine upgrade is planned for this event but it’s unclear if everyone (particularly Red Bull) will end up getting it.

Right now the Ferrari engine looks most powerful, and I anticipate the Prancing Horse will be the best of the frontrunners, followed closely by Mercedes. I suspect Red Bull will be a clear third.

However, the tyre allocation includes the hypersoft. Mercedes in particular (also Haas, which we’ll discuss below) had some difficulties with this in Monaco, so they may prefer to qualify on the ultrasoft. A two stopper, regardless of starting tyre, seems probable. Unlike the trundling procession of Monaco, passing is eminently possible at Canada, so if you let your tyres degrade then you’ll just get passed on track.

It’s too far off to judge weather, but if it is wet, that shuffles the deck. In those circumstances I’d expect Red Bull to leapfrog at least Mercedes if not Ferrari in performance.

As far as drivers go, Hamilton has a stellar record in Canada. Also worth recalling that Bottas had a weirdly good top three start (I think) for Williams a few years ago, after qualifying in the wet.

The rest

I suspect the hypersofts may hamstring Haas in qualifying (they struggled for a balance in Monaco, although Canada’s a very different circuit). Also critical in the tight Renault-McLaren fight is whether the upgraded engine is supplied to both midfield teams or just Renault.

Williams will have a relatively good race, I think. Their problem appears to be dirty air from the front wheels disturbing rear downforce, particularly on high speed corners (these are not brimming at Canada).

Toro Rosso being up-and-down makes assessing pace difficult. Force India, after a dreadful start, have improved a bit and may nibble at the points. Leclerc may also just get into them.

Haas is interesting to consider. If they can make the hypers work, I think they could be best of the rest. If not them, then probably Renault.

In soggy circumstances, I think it’d be advantage Alonso and Hulkenberg (the latter has sometimes shown startling wet pace, notably at Interlagos where he snatched pole for Williams and a few years later when he might’ve won the race for Force India, but for a penalty).

Dry prediction:

Winner: Vettel
Podium: Hamilton, Raikkonen

Wet prediction:

Winner: Verstappen
Podium: Ricciardo, Vettel

Morris Dancer

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