Early Canada ramble
Hey, kids.
Keeping the old three
articles per weekend formula but having a crack at adding some other
stuff too (bits of news, early thoughts on how things might go etc).
My plan was to do this with short Youtube videos as well, but given
I’ve spent most of the last few days trying not to vomit my lungs,
that’s on hold.
Anyway, early thoughts
on the circuit of Canada, the prospects of the top dogs, and the
prospects of the rest.
The circuit
Canada
is a great old track, a place of high speeds, and slow corners. The
hairpin provides opportunity to overtake under braking, and if that
doesn’t work there are a couple of straights (the first being
rather long) to get the job done.
Barriers
are close in places, particularly the Wall of Champions, which sits
adjacent to the chicane connecting the two straights.
Weather
can be soggy. The 2011 race, which was magnificent, was subject to a
downpour that made it last over four hours before Button, who visited
the pits half a dozen times, went from last (around halfway through
the race) to win, passing Vettel on the final lap. F1 bosses being
what they are, they decided this could never be allowed to happen
again and slapped on a four hour absolute time limit on all future
races.
Straight
line speed is very handy, and the corners are slow.
The top dogs
A
Renault engine upgrade is planned for this event but it’s unclear
if everyone (particularly Red Bull) will end up getting it.
Right
now the Ferrari engine looks most powerful, and I anticipate the
Prancing Horse will be the best of the frontrunners, followed closely
by Mercedes. I suspect Red Bull will be a clear third.
However,
the tyre allocation includes the hypersoft. Mercedes in particular
(also Haas, which we’ll discuss below) had some difficulties with
this in Monaco, so they may prefer to qualify on the ultrasoft. A two
stopper, regardless of starting tyre, seems probable. Unlike the
trundling procession of Monaco, passing is eminently possible at
Canada, so if you let your tyres degrade then you’ll just get
passed on track.
It’s
too far off to judge weather, but if it is wet, that shuffles the
deck. In those circumstances I’d expect Red Bull to leapfrog at
least Mercedes if not Ferrari in performance.
As
far as drivers go, Hamilton has a stellar record in Canada. Also
worth recalling that Bottas had a weirdly good top three start (I
think) for Williams a few years ago, after qualifying in the wet.
The rest
I
suspect the hypersofts may hamstring Haas in qualifying (they
struggled for a balance in Monaco, although Canada’s a very
different circuit). Also critical in the tight Renault-McLaren fight
is whether the upgraded engine is supplied to both midfield teams or
just Renault.
Williams
will have a relatively good race, I think. Their problem appears to
be dirty air from the front wheels disturbing rear downforce,
particularly on high speed corners (these are not brimming at
Canada).
Toro
Rosso being up-and-down makes assessing pace difficult. Force India,
after a dreadful start, have improved a bit and may nibble at the
points. Leclerc may also just get into them.
Haas
is interesting to consider. If they can make the hypers work, I think
they could be best of the rest. If not them, then probably Renault.
In
soggy circumstances, I think it’d be advantage Alonso and
Hulkenberg (the latter has sometimes shown startling wet pace,
notably at Interlagos where he snatched pole for Williams and a few
years later when he might’ve won the race for Force India, but for
a penalty).
Dry prediction:
Winner: Vettel
Podium: Hamilton,
Raikkonen
Wet prediction:
Winner: Verstappen
Podium: Ricciardo,
Vettel
Morris Dancer
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