Singapore: pre-race
I missed the first half
of qualifying as the BBC’s Judas Iscariot approach to broadcasting
F1 doesn’t seem to cover having it on either Radio 5 or Sports
Extra, and I had to go online.
Sutil and Maldonado
joined the usual suspects in leaving in the first part of qualifying.
In Q2 Button, Vergne,
Hulkenberg, Gutierrez, Perez and Grosjean went out. Grosjean sounded
furious over the radio due to some engine problem or other which
really angered him. Sounds like he’s at the end of his wick with
Lotus’ shoddy reliability.
Force India continue to
slide down the competitive order. Particularly tricky at a circuit
like Singapore.
In Q3 Hamilton was
fastest, ahead of Rosberg. Ricciardo and Vettel have the second row,
with Alonso and Massa on the third (Massa had been fastest earlier in
the session but failed to improve later). Raikkonen and Bottas are
next, with Magnussen and Kvyat rounding out the top 10.
Commentary info
suggested Rosberg set his fast lap in Q3 on a used set of supersoft
tyres, very surprising as the tyres barely last a lap. Raikkonen had
to stop on track due to a mechanical issue. I wonder if that info was
wrong, given Rosberg was only seven-thousandths off.
A three stop race, or
possibly more, seems likely. Strategy could play a role, as the tyres
really don’t seem to last long. This may disadvantage Williams,
which have tended to be so conservative as to damage their own
prospects.
The race is forecast to
be dry.
Early thoughts on bets:
Vettel podium
Red Bull top score
Alonso podium
Safety Car
Ricciardo to win (each
way)
Lotus drivers not to be
classified
Vettel was 2.62 with
Ladbrokes for a podium (making up one place). However, he starts on
the dirty side of the track, I’m not sure his head’s in quite the
right place and Ricciardo’s been very strong all year.
Red Bull are only 2.75
to top score, which is bloody mean. A realistic prospect but the odds
are tight-fisted. It’s almost as if Ladbrokes doesn’t want me to
make money.
Alonso was 3.85 with
Betfair for a podium. The Ferrari has looked racier... I’m not sure
whether it can match the cars ahead on race pace. Something to
consider, though.
In all (six or so)
Singapore races to date the safety car has made an appearance. It’s
not quite a dead cert but it’s not far off. Ladbrokes offers 1.2,
which, to be honest, is genuinely tempting.
Ricciardo is 8 to win,
about what I’d expect, with Ladbrokes, and 10.5 with Betfair. Hmm.
I’ll add that to the Alonso and Safety Car bets for further
consideration.
I do feel a bit unlucky
both Lotus drivers finished in Monza, but in Singapore it’d be even
unluckier. Maldonado is 2.1 not to be classified, and Grosjean 2.25.
A hard to drive car, mid-grid starting position and potential
reliability failure all make this eminently possible.
So, unexpectedly, I
have more potential bets to consider than I’d imagined.
Alonso 3.85 for a
podium
Safety Car 1.2
Ricciardo to win (8
each way, or 10.5 hedged)
Lotus drivers to fail
to be classified (2.1 and 2.25)
I checked last year’s
result and, counter-intuitively, only two drivers retired
(admittedly, one of them was Grosjean). So, I’ve decided against
repeating the Monza bet, tempting though it is.
I think the Safety Car
bet is likely, but the low number of retirements last time indicate
it’s by no means certain, and the forecast is for it to be dry. So,
my aversion to short odds means I won’t go for that either.
Which leaves Alonso for
a podium, or Ricciardo to win (either each way, which is top 2, or
hedged).
I think Alonso’s a
great driver, but I do not believe his car is good enough.
Ricciardo’s been driving phenomenally well this year, he’s also
had the luck, his car’s competitive and well-suited to Singapore.
So, the question is
whether to back each way, or hedge it on Betfair. The agony of
choice. I decided to go for Betfair, backed 10.5, hedged at 4. Often
one of the Mercedes drivers has started poorly, and I think Ricciardo
could get close enough for the hedge to be matched. Bad tyre wear or
an error could see him take the win.
So, just a single tip:
Ricciardo to win, 10.5
(hedged 4)
Tomorrow will probably
see less passing on-track but more strategy, as the tyres are
crumblier than old cheese.
Morris Dancer
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