Italy: pre-qualifying
The compounds in Monza
will be hard and medium.
Mercedes have indicated
they may have to drop one of their two drivers if they can’t get
along. I think that’s a gross over-reaction, as was their
condemnation of Rosberg during the Spa race. Drivers including
Vettel, Hulkenberg and Alonso have since said they believe the
collision to have been a racing incident, a view that I subscribe to.
The FIA will not have a
look at it, something Hamilton’s questioned. The Briton (whether
you believe the incident to be mistake or malice) currently has a lot
of sympathy but such utterances may lose him some.
Anyway, the circuit in
Italy is rather nice. It’s a collection of straight lines with very
few proper corners, so straight line speed is what matters most. This
will help cars powered by a Mercedes and probably hinder
Ferrari-powered cars the most. The Parabolica, which is a proper
corner, has been emasculated this year by the removal of a gravel
trap outside the track limit and its replacement with weak-kneed
tarmac. Damned shame.
In P1 Hamilton was over
half a second ahead of Button, with Rosberg third and almost a whole
second behind his team mate. Then we had Alonso, Magnussen, Vettel,
Raikkonen, Perez, Kvyat and Hulkenberg.
McLaren look
surprisingly tasty, and the Mercedes drivers’ difference I would
put down to fuel loads or suchlike. Neither Williams is in the top
10, which either means my early bets are the most stupid thing since
George Lucas thought of Jar Jar Binks, or they’re sandbagging and
were bursting with fuel.
In P2 Rosberg was
fastest, but less than a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Surprisingly,
Raikkonen was third, barely a tenth off the pace and two-tenths ahead
of Alonso. Bottas, Button and Vettel were separated by
four-thousandths of a second, with Magnussen, Massa and Ricciardo
rounding out the top 10.
Hamilton missed about
an hour of P2 due to a problem with the car (getting the engine fired
up, I think). He came very close to Rosberg’s time but never seemed
at ease (can take that either way, as it could mean he’s got extra
speed in his pocket, or that he’s on edge). McNish reckoned the
Mercedes was fastest over one lap but on race pace Williams were top,
with Mercedes second and Ferrari/Red Bull about the same. However,
overtaking can be tricky and a single stop is expected during the
race so that might yet be advantage Mercedes.
In P3 Hamilton was
fastest by over four-tenths, with Alonso second, a little way ahead
of Bottas and Massa (whose times were very close). Button was next,
then came Vettel, Raikkonen, Kvyat, Ricciardo, and Hulkenberg.
During P3 the
commentators referred to rumours that the Ferrari engine has been
somewhat improved in power terms. This would explain them being more
competitive than might’ve been the case. The Ferrari team also
changed their gear ratios (which you can only do once this season).
From next year ratios will be fixed for all year long.
In P3 Rosberg had a
gearbox problem which prevented him getting much running. The team
was hoping to get it sorted without needing to replace it for
qualifying, and we’ll see whether that’s the case or not [if not
he’ll get a grid penalty]. Perez also suffered a gearbox problem
which caused his car to stop on track. Neither got to have a run at
qualifying simulation.
Brakes and DRS were not
working that well, Hamilton claimed. Hopefully that won’t recur
during qualifying/the race.
P3 also saw Vettel
complain the K was misbehaving, (kinetic energy). That’s very
significant as it could mean a loss of power which would cost him
dearly, as well as altering brake balance and causing potential brake
failure (see Mercedes in Canada). Rocky, Vettel’s race engineer,
suggested it was a one-off sort of problem.
Mercedes has a long
ratio (barely using 8th gear), with Force India close to
that and the other teams shorter. A longer ratio may help the gearbox
(fewer gear changes) but won’t boost performance.
Kvyat gets a 10 place
penalty for being on his sixth engine (season limit is five).
Potential bets -
Alonso top 3 in
qualifying
Lay Kvyat points
Lay Rosberg podium (if
he gets a grid penalty)
Hamilton pole
Rosberg pole
I’m not sure about
Alonso being top 3. His odds were 3 (there was a tiny amount at 4.5),
which is too short. I think Raikkonen or the Williams could pose a
risk, so no bet there.
The Kvyat points bet is
based on a probable qualifying of around 8th and starting
18th with the penalty. However, as there was £10
available at 21, which is horrendous, no bet.
Laying Rosberg for the
podium was based on a race competitive Williams and Red Bull coupled
with a potential grid penalty. But the odds were a downright stingy
1.43.
Hamilton’s likely to
get pole, but 1.66 isn’t that tempting given Rosberg’s strong
record. Rosberg was 3.4, but if he did get a grid penalty he might
well alter his car set-up to maximise overtaking potential at the
expense of overall pace, compromising qualifying.
So, no bets at all. I
do expect it to be very tight between Williams and Ferrari after the
Mercedes, with Red Bull and McLaren also close together.
Morris Dancer
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