Singapore: post-race analysis

Must admit I found the race a bit gruelling. There was a good helping of on-track action, but from both a title and race bet perspective it seemed things didn’t quite go right. Ricciardo’s bad start and power problems prevented him from running second for a long while. If he had, I feel confident the hedge would’ve been matched. Still, it’s easier to bet with hindsight. My bad patch continues, but we’ll see how the next race goes.

Rosberg and Kobayashi had nightmare formation laps. Rosberg couldn’t even get off the line and Kobayashi suffered a reliability failure on the formation lap. Though Rosberg started from the pit lane his car had a terminal electronic problem which robbed him of any pace, and at the tragically comic effort at a pit stop he was forced to call it a day.

Off the line Hamilton retained the lead, Ricciardo bogged down and was passed by both Vettel and Alonso and Button made up a few places. For a long while the tedious track saw the gaps increase with relatively little action. As expected, three stop strategies were the preferred option for many. Button was having a decent crack at a two stop (I think) when, late on, his car failed and he had to retire from what was 7^th.

Sutil and Perez collided, eventually costing the Mexican his front wing, which exploded into a shower of debris which prompted a safety car. This not only closed up the field, it allowed Alonso (then 2^nd, I think) to pit, and emerge 4^th but with the soft [prime] tyre on. Hamilton, Vettel and Ricciarod ahead of him did not pit, but the Briton was the only one who had yet to use the soft tyre, meaning he was the only one who would have to have another pit stop.

Suddenly the race became rather more interesting. When the safety car finally left (it remained out so long the sixty-first lap was axed and the race became sixty laps long) he immediately pulled away but it wasn’t clear if his supersoft tyres would last long enough for him to pull out the necessary gap. Alas, it was. He came out in 2^nd but because Vettel’s tyres were so very old passing him was a formality.

There was altogether more fighting in the middle of the pack. Vergne was given a five second penalty for exceeding track limits, but managed a flurry of late moves to claim 6^th, and not only that but to extend his advantage to such an extent the five second penalty saw him retain the strong finish for Toro Rosso. Won’t do his efforts to claim a seat elsewhere next year any harm at all.

Massa was largely anonymous in the race but drove competently to retain 5^th. Bottas (like Massa) had been running around on tyres about 37 laps old by the end, but, unlike his older team mate, failed to make them last. On the last lap or two the Finn slipped from 6^th to 11^th.

Alonso was 4^th, but may feel irked not to have finished up on the podium. Raikkonen’s 8^th was so-so, perhaps a shade disappointing.

Perez got 7^th, and had a good race, and Hulkenberg had a decent result with 9^th. Not outstanding for the team, but pretty good given where they started, especially for Perez.

Magnussen claimed 10^th. Interestingly, he complained the drink was of no use to him because it was so hot it was burning his mouth. Kvyat also complained around lap 44 that the race was incredibly hard (due to heat/humidity).

Maldonado was 10^th for a while, but slipped back to miss out on a point and retain his current tally of zero. I don’t spread bet, but do recall his average was about 66 pre-season (laying it was practically the only thing Mr. Putney and I agreed upon).

Quite disappointed with how the bet turned out. After Rosberg suffered his problems I thought Ricciardo, starting effectively second, had a good shot, but his poor start and power problems meant it wasn’t to be. I’ve had some wins due to good luck and it’s unreasonable to expect I’ll never suffer losses likewise. However, I’ve had a fairly bad patch recently so I’ll have to try and think about why that might be.

It’s not good for the title race either.

Hamilton 241

Rosberg 238

Ricciardo 181

Perversely, despite finishing two spots behind Hamilton, Ricciardo took a step forward. He was about 70 points behind the leader, now it’s just 60 (the leader, of course, having changed). It’s still very close between the Mercedes drivers, and Ricciardo might have a chance, but I still think it won’t be his year. People should not write Rosberg off. Leaving aside reliability failures for Hamilton, which may happen in the next few races, he’s still got a great shot at the title. I do think Hamilton is the favourite for it now, alas.

Mercedes 479

Red Bull 305

Williams 187

Ferrari 178

Force India 117

McLaren 111

I think the top four places will be the same at the end of the season. Top two are pretty much settled. Williams are much faster in a straight line than Ferrari and this was one of their weakest circuits. Force India and McLaren is hard to call (Force India leapfrogged McLaren today).

We’re off to Japan in a fortnight, to the fantastic Suzuka circuit. A proper track, not a damned street circuit, so it should be great. Hopefully, it’ll be green too.

Morris Dancer