Singapore: pre-race 2024

Well, after all the suspicion Red Bull would do terribly in qualifying things did not turn out that way.

Q1 had the slightly surprising departure of Ricciardo. Less surprising was Stroll failing to progress (both their team mates would reach Q3), and Gasly, Bottas, and Zhou Guanyu.

Q2 had Ocon slowest of all, underlining Alpine’s return to terrible form having recovered pretty well earlier in the season. Both Williams were knocked out, Albon seven-thousandths ahead of Colapinto, and both ahead of Perez who was only 13th. Magnussen qualified 14th.

While McLaren were looking good, heading into Q3 it seemed they were favourites, particularly Norris, and might face a challenge from Verstappen, Leclerc, or even Hamilton. Only Piastri and Hulkenberg managed to put in an initial run after Sainz had a very strange snap just before the start of a hot lap to hit the barriers, demolish his rear end (ahem), and bring out a brief red flag. 

Almost everyone, therefore, had a single run. Norris was clearly on pole, two-tenths ahead of Verstappen, whose car has gone from atrocious to the second best (in his hands, at least). Hamilton was a tenth behind the Dutchman and two-hundredths ahead of Russell, making the second row Mercedes territory.

Piastri could only manage 5th and was four-tenths off Norris. While the Australian is highly talented, this time it was easy to tell who the fastest McLaren was. I do wonder if he’ll be deployed tactically to block Verstappen and try to bugger the Dutchman’s race. He’s joined on the third row by Hulkenberg, which is very impressive by the German.

Alonso and Tsunoda form row four, about 10 places ahead of their team mates, while Leclerc had his lap time deleted for exceeding track limits and will start 9th. A shocking qualifying for Ferrari. Many, including me, expected them to be right at the sharp end at this track.


Worth noting many drivers came close to calamity, and multiple lamented the tyres and how they differed from one set to another.

Rain is around but it seems the race will occur in a dry window. I am keeping it in mind as a possibility, however, though it does seem to be a low chance according to forecasts.



Early Betting Thoughts

Verstappen, not to be classified
Verstappen, win
Hamilton, podium
Albon, points

Verstappen is 7 not to be classified. This is akin to my last suggestion of this nature as he not only has Russell ahead but the other Britons (Hamilton and Russell) right behind and contact with the latter two and the Dutchman is not uncommon. Not a terrible idea, especially as many drivers found tyres to be inconsistent and made errors during qualifying, but not spectacular either.

Norris tends to start badly. If he does so in Singapore then Verstappen should inherit the lead and can then either be cautious and gentle to his tyres or try and build a gap while Norris enjoys dirty air and reduced downforce. Verstappen is 5.1 on Betfair to win (4 on Ladbrokes). His odds to lead lap 1 are 3.15-3.25. If he does nip into the lead then the win bet will be eminently hedgeable. There is always the risk Norris starts well or, perhaps more likely, someone else get ahead. But this could make a lot of sense. 

Hamilton’s starts 3rd, is the lead Mercedes, and has tended to race better than he’s qualified this year. Passing is difficult to impossible (there’s a fourth, extra, DRS zone this time around) but the pace of Mercedes is good. He’s only 1.83 for a podium, though.

Albon starts 11th and is evens for points. I imagine he’ll start on the hards to go long and have the biggest window for taking advantage of the probable safety car.



Anyway, lots of stuff that’s ok but nothing that’s amazing. So I perused the markets:

Hamilton beat Piastri, 1.83
Russell beat Piastri, 2.35
Russell, podium, 3.5

If I were McLaren’s strategy chap I’d have Piastri there as a roadblock for Verstappen come the first stops. This would sacrifice the Aussie’s race to maximise Norris’ chances of cutting into the Dutchman’s lead by the necessary margin. And would guarantee, practically, Hamilton at 1.83 beats Piastri. On the other hand, McLaren tend to make bloody odd strategy decisions, so…

Russell starts one place ahead of Piastri on a circuit where passing is very hard. All else being equal the Briton should finish ahead so 2.35 is worth considering.

Russell only needs one of the chaps ahead to have a bad strategy call, unlucky safety car timing or contact to inherit a podium. And it would not be the first time this year…


Plenty of stuff that looks ok, nothing that is clearly excellent. I’m a bit miffed all the groups this time are bigger (group betting is something I normally find at least something worth considering in).

The start will be critical, as will how McLaren handles Piastri as I expect the top 5 to break away from Hulkenberg-Alonso, who should act as an effective barrier to Ferrari. The run to the first corner is very short, which may help Norris.

Not fond of short odds bets but I’ve decided to back Russell to beat Piastri at 2.35. The Aussie’s looked a long step behind Norris all weekend and, if the team have their head screwed on right, they’ll use him to advantage Norris.

At least, that was my plan. For reasons that are strange and mysterious, I was unable to log into Ladbrokes.


So instead I went for Russell to end up on the podium at 4.4, with Betfair.


Morris Dancer