Azerbaijan: pre-race 2024

Once again, F1 in 2024 threw up a shock result, this time to the detriment of Norris.


Both Saubers failed to leave Q1, as did Ocon (whose car was poorly). Ricciardo was the fastest man eliminated. And Norris qualified 17th. Rampant track evolution meant the McLarens had to go out again, Piastri ahead of Norris. But Ocon peeling off to the side brought out yellows and Norris aborted his lap. Advantage Verstappen in the title race.

Q2 was interesting, although with less dramatic implications, as Bearman did well to outqualify Hulkenberg (11th and 14th respectively). A minor note I’d add is that the German excels at old school tracks like Silverstone and Interlagos and isn’t so hot on street circuits, but even so it’s very impressive by the young British driver. Tsunoda, Gasly, and Stroll were also eliminated.

And so to the pole position contest in Q3. Leclerc was fastest of all and even improved late on, and is joined on the front row by Piastri. The second row is Sainz and Perez, who has looked faster than Verstappen all weekend long. The third row features Russell and Verstappen (I do wonder if they’ll end up colliding), with Hamilton and Alonso behind them. Colapinto starts 9th, one place ahead of Albon (whose final run was compromised by the engineers inexplicably leaving the bright yellow cooling unit in the airbox. The Thai driver had to peel off then remove it himself but the lost time prevented him putting in a hot lap).

There is currently a 0% chance of rain forecast for the race. Note that Zhou was thrust to the back of the grid due to excessive new parts only for this to be outdone by Gasly being disqualified for a fuel flow problem (he starts, but last). This promotes Norris to 16th.


Early Betting Thoughts
Leclerc, win
Piastri, win
Colapinto, points finish

Man on pole winning is not a heroic bet, although Leclerc has an impressive record of failing to convert poles to wins. He’s had 7 wins but more than thrice as many poles, and Baku is a circuit where passing is eminently possible. As such, the 1.91 on him winning does not appeal. But if you did back my early (PB) tip on him to win at 6.5, it’s pretty nice as a hedging number.

Piastri is 3 to win, a clear second favourite with Verstappen out to 9 (too short, even so) and others in double digits. He’s got a great shot, given Leclerc often drifts back from pole. But the odds are not fantastic for a man who starts behind. If this appeals it *might* be more tempting to go for a lap 1 leader type bet.

Colapinto has made a flying start to his F1 career and the Williams looked handy under both drivers (Albon being undone by the airbox woe aside). However, he’s only evens for points which feels a bit too short, once again.


And so to checking the markets and hoping value springs out at me:
Nothing


At this stage I was quite aggravated my own self-imposed rules don’t allow early tips (made before the pre-qualifying blog) don’t really count in the records, as I’d otherwise be perfectly content sitting on the guaranteed profit of Leclerc winning or not.

So, I’ve gone for a gut instinct bet (and I’m counting this as a rare half-stake bet in the records on that basis): Verstappen, not to be classified, 9 (boosted to 9.5).

Backed this for a few reasons. First and foremost, setup problems which went worse in qualifying. Baku’s got a big straight but also lots of tight, twisty bits. An error due to the car misbehaving can easily cause terminal woe. In addition, he’s got Russell and Hamilton right next to him, both drivers with whom he’s had plenty of contact in the past. And, thirdly, just a feeling that might happen.


Race start is midday.


Morris Dancer