Italy: pre-race 2024
As predicted, qualifying was nice and close, but with a couple of surprises.
In the first session, Colapinto dipped a tyre into the gravel (unlike Sainz, he did it on the critical second run rather than the first). This cost him progression to Q2 but he did well to save it instead of delivering his Williams into the barriers. The Saubers were slowest, and Tsunoda also departed at this stage. Slightly more surprising was Stroll, who starts 17th.
In Q2 things were ultra-close with the top 8 looking destined for a very close battle and leaving just scraps for the rest. In the end, Alonso was pipped by Hulkenberg. The Spaniard qualified 11th, just a hundredth off Q1. Ricciardo and Magnussen followed, with Gasly and Ocon bringing up the rear.
And so to a private Hulkenberg-Albon duel for glory on the fifth row, and four teams contesting the win. In the end, it was a McLaren 1-2, Norris leading the way, the perfect papaya result for those wanting title battles. There was a tenth between them and just four-thousandths between Piastri and Russell. Leclerc was three-hundredths further back, six-thousandths ahead of Sainz. Hamilton lines up alongside the Spaniard on row three, having been four-hundredths slower.
And where was Verstappen? Relegated to 7th. Half a second behind Hamilton. He was only a few hundredths ahead of Perez. That seems… perplexing. I wonder if his pace will be substantially better in the race. He’d better hope so, if the grid is the result then Norris would take 19 points out of Verstappen’s lead.
As for Albon and Hulkenberg, the Thai driver won it by exactly four-hundredths.
I also wonder if the high temperatures will hinder Mercedes more over a race distance, giving Leclerc a chance to make the podium.
Early Betting Thoughts
Leclerc, podium
Hulkenberg, points
Russell/Piastri lead lap 1
Leclerc is 2.2 for a podium. We’ve only had a single race since the summer break but in that the team worked flawlessly and he drove impeccably. I suspect the high temperatures may hamper the Mercedes (tyre wear won’t be a problem, which is lucky as both Russell and Hamilton needed 2 stops last time when other top runners only needed 1). However, given the stiffness of the competition and seven odd people who could get on the podium the short odds put me off.
Hulkenberg is 1.67 for points. He does start 10th but the tight odds, again, deter me.
It’s not exactly a secret that Norris is a sporting chap and likes giving his rivals a chance by leaving the handbrake on at the starts. To be fair, last weekend I attribute to the side of the track (the top three or four chaps on the odd side ended up losing a place) and his reaction time was identical to Verstappen. The odds on Piastri leading lap 1 are 4.5 (Ladbrokes) with Russell 5.5 (Betfair). However, I’m not inclined to bet on this either, as I think Norris actually did fine last time and it was track conditions. If he does as well this time he should retain the lead.
And so, I have no bet in mind, so I sleepily perused the markets. Here’s what leapt out at me:
Piastri, win each way, 6
Leclerc, win each way, 15
Sainz, win each way, 26
Sainz, podium, 5
The McLaren edged out the field and is good everywhere in both qualifying and the race. If Piastri retains his position within the top 2 I think he may just drive away from the rest. I do have some reservations, though. Tyre wear shouldn’t be a concern provided he doesn’t cane it, but if they need to sacrifice Piastri tactically for the sake of Norris then McLaren would be fools not to. Also, the pace is extremely close. If he gets passed off the line or in pit stops then he may be unable to retake the position. Monza is trickier than people may assume for overtaking, though easier than a certain circuit in the Netherlands.
Leclerc and Sainz are separated by a few thousandths and drive very well indeed around this circuit. Last week had the Prancing Horse return to their early season form of great driving paired with unusual team efficiency. If McLaren do drop the ball they stand a good chance of inheriting the win.
Sainz is a bit overlooked, and not just in the driver transfer market. He’s 5 for a podium, the longest of anyone before Perez. He and Leclerc have a roughly equal performance around this track and if he gets a better start he has every chance of reminding people he still exists. (Reminder for those wondering: I think high temperatures may compromise Mercedes, I haven’t forgotten they exist).
In truth, I have no bloody idea what to put money on. Things are incredibly tight, and the grid is poised nicely to watch. But trying to predict things beyond a probable Norris victory is not easy.
So I re-checked the markets and backed Stroll to win group 4 (including Tsunoda and the Alpines) at 3 (boosted from 2.9). His car is easily the best of those, though he screwed up qualifying.
Morris Dancer
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