Azerbaijan: pre-qualifying 2024

Azerbaijan is a weird track, faster than Monaco but still 90% very tight and then you’ve got a huge straight. Races are sometimes tedious, and sometimes crazy. It’s the first time Colapinto and Bearman (replacing the temporarily banned Magnussen) will go around the streets of Baku.

Also, McLaren have indicated they will (finally) favour Norris at the expense if need be, in pursuit of the title.


In FP1 Verstappen was fastest, a third of a second ahead of Hamilton and Perez. Norris was a tenth further back, with a similar margin back to Sainz, then Piastri, Alonso, Russell, Leclerc, and Ricciardo. However, both Leclerc and Colapinto crashed out, making this a rather disrupted session.

Second practice had Leclerc fastest, six thousandths ahead of Perez and sixty-six hundredths ahead of Hamilton. Sainz was four-tenths further back, a few hundredths up on Piastri, with Verstappen a similar distance behind. Stroll, Hulkenberg, Russell, and Bearman completed the upper half of the time sheet.

In third practice Bearman hit the wall. Red flags are eminently possible for qualifying. Russell was quickest but that was due in part to a tow on the straight, and I think the Mercedes is competitive but not the quickest, probably. Thirteen thousandths down the road is Charles Leclerc, who I think is looking pretty good for pole. Norris was two-tenths further back, one-hundredth ahead of Piastri. Red Bull are looking rather better this weekend, and Verstappen and Perez had the 5th and 6th fastest times in third practice. Albon and Colapinto followed, indicating great Williams pace and a strong start for the newcomer, with Hamilton and Alonso rounding out the top 10.


Bets to consider include Leclerc for pole, and Colapinto to be top 10.

Leclerc is 2.75 for pole. Tempting but the circuit is unforgiving (and I’ve already backed him at 6.5 for the win which will be eminently hedgeable if he gets pole).

Surprisingly, the rookie in a Williams (Colapinto) is shorter to make the top 10 at just 2.5.

So, despite waiting for the markets to awaken, I’m not betting on how the grid stacks up.


Qualifying is at 1pm.


Morris Dancer

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