Styria: pre-race 2021

Qualifying was nice and tight. Bottas gets a 3 place grid penalty for the slightly embarrassing offence of spinning in the pit lane during practice. It’s also possible that Tsunoda will get a penalty for impeding the Finn during a hot lap in Q3.

The very short lap made the margins tighter than ever and in the first part of qualifying just three-hundredths separated Ricciardo, who escaped, and Latifi, who did not. A surprising departure was Ocon, and Raikkonen also failed to progress, with Schumacher and Mazepin bringing up the rear.

Some late lap time deletions for exceeding track limits didn’t actually affect who got tossed aside but did shuffle the order of places 11-15 somewhat. Russell starts 11^th, with Sainz and Ricciardo behind him. After some good form the Aussie once again looks a long way off his British team mate. Vettel was down to 14^th due to losing a faster time, with Giovinazzi the slowest man in the second session.

So far Verstappen had been looking tasty, but would Mercedes spring a surprise in Q3? No. Verstappen nailed his first lap and Hamilton never got close. In a qualifying session that had seen Russell fail to make Q3 by eight-thousandths, the two-tenths Verstappen had over Hamilton is a yawning chasm. And yet, it still means they both comprise the front row once more.

Technically, Bottas was the second fastest chap, but his three place penalty puts him 5^th on the grid, with Hamilton inheriting 2^nd. Norris was impressive throughout qualifying, looking like he was driving a different car to his team mate, and heads up the second row (his time just half a tenth off Hamilton), with Perez alongside him. Row three is Bottas and Gasly, who once again dragged his AlphaTauri to a great position.

Leclerc and Tsunoda is row four at the time of writing but I suspect the Japanese chap might be in for a penalty. Alonso and Stroll are the men of row five.

The weather forecast is for the race to be overcast but dry. Tsunoda has a 3 place grid penalty for his naughtiness (hat tip to Mr. Sandpit).

Early betting thoughts:
Norris podium
Gasly top 6
Stroll points

Red Bull top score

Norris is 3 for a podium, or 3.8 with Betfair. The latter might be worth considering but all else being equal I would expect Perez and Bottas to make this difficult for the Briton. Well as he’s driving, his car isn’t one of the top two.

Gasly is 1.57 to be top 6. Yes, he’s got a good chance of that happening but between the big four and Norris there’s sod all margin for error, so the odds do not appeal to me.

Stroll is 1.75 for points. Downside for him is 9^th is an iffy place on the grid because you get no tyre choice, which may make it worse than 10^th (Russell, who has a habit of ruining points-winning positions for Williams). NB both chaps promoted by Tsunoda’s penalty.

Once again, to my annoyance and surprise, there’s no top scoring team market. Given how close it is at the top, I don’t get why this isn’t an option any more with Ladbrokes, but there we are.

In accordance with the principles laid down by Gamblor, God of Betting, I then looked over the market to see what caught my eye.

Gasly to win group 1 (Leclerc, Ricciardo, Alonso) at 2.3
Vettel to win group 2 (Sainz, Stroll, Tsunoda) at 4.5
Winner without the big 4, Norris at 1.53
Over 17.5 classified finishers, 2.5
Russell points, 2.25

Gasly’s been driving very well this year and, on pace, his car appears a cut above the rest (Norris doing sterling work in the McLaren, admittedly). That said, there’s always the chance of a DNF due to woe. 2.3 is ok, but could be longer.

Vettel starts 14^th, which is not ideal. But his car is faster than that (bobbling around the top 10 in qualifying terms) and Aston Martin have done very well in recent races coming from a Q2 position to get in the points. Ferrari tend to move backwards, Tsunoda’s unreliable, and Stroll has the problem of no free tyre choice.

Norris to be best of the rest doesn’t look heroic but may make sense. 1.53 is short but probably still value as he starts in the middle of the big 4 so has a nice little buffer between himself and Gasly.

As this year, in 2020 the circuit hosted two events and one had a cartload of DNFs. The other only had a couple. And the 2019 race saw none. So more than 17.5 classified finishers at 2.5 may represent good value (I don’t think we had a single retirement last race).

Ah, Russell and points. An old favourite, which has almost always been a value loser. But he was 11^th on pace, starts 10^th, and has free tyre choice. Should be a slam dunk. Won’t be, but might still be worth backing.

I wrote on PB I was thinking of amending my betting approach, at least when I don’t have something clear to back, and make multiple small bets rather than just tipping one or two things.

So, that’s what I’m going to do, backing each of the five bets just mentioned (Gasly to Russell), with smaller stakes. In terms of my records this is counting as a single split stake.

I’m not anticipating this becoming my standard modus operandi, but in cases where I have a half dozen bets and feel mildly in favour of many without a clear favourite, this may be the way I go in future. As an aside, this was how I first bet back in 2009, although back then I had the great aid of refuelling being a thing and the BBC’s F1 Mole blog helpfully calculating who had what fuel loads which made things quite interesting.

Race start is 2pm, UK time.

Morris Dancer