Azerbaijan: post-race analysis 2021

As a neutral, that was dramatically exciting. From a betting perspective, a long odds bet failed because of a large slice of bad luck, which is aggravating. (Not the first time I’ve had bad luck this year, unlike 2020 when I fluked my way to many a win).

Off the line it was formation flying with the top set, while Perez and Vettel made good starts further back. Perez charged up and was soon running right behind his team mate.

Leclerc held off Hamilton for a lap or two before getting passed by the Briton, and a few laps later Verstappen did likewise. As suspected, the Ferrari chewed its tyres a bit and was one of the first in.

The Red Bulls kept pace with Hamilton, whose slow stop (Gasly pitted at the same time, delaying the Mercedes’ release) enabled the fast Red Bulls to pit on successive laps and emerge, both of them, ahead of the reigning world champion.

Hamilton got close to Perez but could not pass.

Everyone else pitted, except the Aston Martins, and Gasly managed to leapfrog Leclerc for effectively 4^th (Vettel was leading the race due to not pitting).

As a nice old man once almost said, everything was proceeding as I had foreseen.

And then it wasn’t.

Stroll’s rear tyre exploded on the straight and a safety car came out. Upon the restart, Vettel’s fresher tyres enabled him, annoyingly, to pass Leclerc and then Gasly, relative positions which remained until the end.

The formation flying Red Bulls retained their lead, Hamilton unable to make an impact upon them. Until it happened again. This time, Verstappen’s rear tyre disintegrated, putting him into the wall and out of he race, robbing him of a 10 point benefit over Hamilton and a certain victory. A safety car followed, then gave way to a red flag so everyone could change their tyres.

And so it was advantage Hamilton, with every point he scored a guaranteed dent into Verstappen’s lead, and likely making the Briton title leader once more.

They lined up on the grid for a restart. Hamilton’s brakes were cooking, steaming hot. And then he screwed it up, having a double lock up on the first corner and putting himself out of the points, promoting Vettel to 2^nd and Gasly to 3^rd, with Perez taking a fantastic maiden win for Red Bull.  

Tsunoda’s 7^th (passed last lap by Alonso who got 6^th) makes it a very good day for AlphaTauri, with a podium and double points result.

Leclerc ended up 4^th and Sainz 8^th. That’s not too bad for Ferrari given they had to put early. Norris and Ricciardo both scored too, with 5^th and 9^th respectively, just behind their best-of-the-rest rivals. Raikkonen nabbed the final point in 10^th.

I’m glad that we didn’t see Hamilton retake the lead on misfortune for Verstappen, and while his lock-up was vaguely comical, keeping things as they were between the two men (4 point lead for Verstappen) feels fair, and it’s closer than if Hamilton had finished on the podium.

Bottas failed to score, so Perez increased Red Bull’s constructors’ lead from 1 to 26 points. Ferrari overtook McLaren by 94 to 92, but I think over the year the McLaren will likely finish ahead. AlphaTauri, Aston Martin, and Alpine are in something of a three way battle, on 39, 37, and 25 points respectively. Vettel’s resurgence is nice to see.

Perez was very good throughout too, and with Bottas 12^th this should be a positive Verstappen can take away. If the Mexican can repeat that kind of performance, Red Bull are near guaranteed the constructors’ title, and it’ll make things a lot easier for Verstappen too.

So, the race was dramatic, dangerous, sometimes farcical. Azerbaijan saw passing and pace, incident and surprise. It was a lot of fun to watch (unlike Monaco). In bad news, we’re off to France in a fortnight. I can’t remember the last race there but I do remember being bored at the end of it.

Let’s hope it’s entertaining. And green.

Morris Dancer