Azerbaijan: pre-race 2021

Rare to see a quartet of red flags in qualifying, but that’s what we got. Chaos, bordering on farce, though the grid ended up intriguingly poised for the race.

The first session was notable for having a pair of red flags by Stroll and, later, Giovinazzi, putting both chaps out. Especially unfortunate for Stroll who may have aimed for Q3. As might be expected, the Haas drivers and Latifi also exited at this stage.

For the most part, Q2 was more normal, although a late Ricciardo crash brought out a third red flag and robbed many, including an understandably frustrated Vettel (11th by three-hundredths), of the chance to improve. The German was joined by Ocon, Ricciardo, Raikkonen, and Russell.

The first run of Q3 pretty much settled things as a late double crash (two solo incidents at the same place) by Tsunoda and Sainz foiled second runs. Leclerc ended up a not-really-surprise top dog, benefiting from a huge tow from Hamilton to finish on pole with an impressively large margin of two-tenths. Mercedes bounced back in some style with Hamilton (aided by Bottas’ tow) 2nd, a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Gasly had a cracking lap to be just two-thousandths off the Dutchman, with row three consisting of Sainz and Norris. However, the Briton may be in trouble for red flag infringements (accelerating and not immediately pitting).

The fourth row, as things stand, is Perez and Tsunoda, with Alonso and Bottas, who served as a tow-machine for his team mate, bringing up the rear.

Norris seems likely to get a penalty and Sainz and Tsunoda might as well. There’s also a suspicion the Ferrari might be fast but also chew through its tyres. With Hamilton in the mix from the start, the Mercedes’ high straight line speed might put him in the best place to win, and if Norris retains his starting slot then the McLaren (similarly) might be able to carve its way to a podium.

I’d thought this would be another Red Bull-Ferrari battle, with Norris also involved, but Hamilton’s got a great chance to retake the title lead. It’s going to be spicy. And this is one race I won’t be betting on a high number of classified finishers.

Norris ended up with a 3 place grid penalty, and thus starts 9th on the grid.

Early thoughts:
Norris podium/win
Gasly podium
Alonso top 6
Vettel points

My Norris bet idea was before his penalty was known. His win odds are 85 on the Betfair Exchange (41 with Ladbrokes but each way is available). Podium odds are 5.5. Ninth is a rough place to start, though. But he’s driven well all year and the straight line speed of the McLaren could be handy for carving through the field. Perhaps too improbable.

Gasly is another chap who has been driving well in 2021 and put in a cracking lap to start 4th. Perhaps lacks the car to directly challenge those ahead of him (unless Leclerc’s wheels fall to bits) but if they crash he could still be there to pick up the pieces. His podium odds are 5.

Alonso’s been a little lacklustre on Saturdays but has shown flashes of his old self on Sundays. He starts 8th and has odds of 2.87 to be top 6 with Ladbrokes but 4.5 with Betfair, which seems pretty tempting to me. Alonso’s fast, reliable, and while his car isn’t quite as quick as it might be he also tends to make few mistakes, which could pay dividends in Azerbaijan.

Vettel should’ve been in the top 10, but the Ricciardo crash thwarted his efforts. The car’s been adversely affected by inter-season rule changes but performed well in Monaco and was looking good in Baku. He’s 1.83 with Ladbrokes and 1.92 on Betfair. My only concern would be short odds betting on a circuit where crashing, either through the fault of oneself or another, is obviously riskier than at somewhere like Hungary.

Anyway, in accordance with the principles laid down by Antigonus Monopthalmus I then perused the markets to see if anything leapt out at me.

Gasly, winner without the big four, 11

Under 15.5 classified finishers, 2.3

Gasly starts with only the Ferraris near/ahead of him (outside of Red Bull/Mercedes). A concern I heard in qualifying coverage was that the skinny wing of Ferrari provided a lot of speed at the cost of severely chewing up the tyres. Unsure how strategy will play out, the undercut seems powerful but if an extra stop is required that could easily negate the advantage. Aside from his Bahrain DNF, the Frenchman has scored at every race to date, including holding onto 6th in Monaco.

The last three events at the circuit have seen non-classified numbers of 6, 6, and 4 (DNF numbers are 7, 7, 4). That’s an average exceeding 5, we’ve seen plenty of crashing already, so 2.3 on 5 or more chaps failing to be classified is some value.

The bets that appeal the most to me are Alonso to be top 6 at 4.5, Gasly to win without the big four at 11, and under 15.5 classified finishers at 2.3.

On reflection, I think Alonso could be at risk from Norris and Bottas behind him. Likewise, Leclerc will be gobbled up by Hamilton and Verstappen, I believe, on the straight. This may make Gasly’s odds of 11 too long.

So, after some prevaricating, I’ve backed:

Under 15.5 classified finishers (2.35 with boost)
Gasly to be winner without the big four (12 with boost)

The race starts at 1pm, UK time.

Morris Dancer

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