France: pre-race 2021

Red flags are becoming something of a bad habit in qualifying. There were two this time, both in the first session. Tsunoda’s put him out of Q1, and Schumacher’s, ironically, came after he’d made it to Q2 for the first time. However, Schumacher’s also meant that Stroll was unable to improve (he had a lap deleted for exceeding track limits) and he starts 19^th. Also eliminated were Mazepin and Raikkonen, with Latifi out by two-thousandths (beaten by his team mate.

As already mentioned Schumacher was ‘in’ the second part of qualifying but with three wheels on his wagon he didn’t set a lap time. Interestingly, both midfielder and frontrunners put on the medium tyre (not too much slower than the soft and reckoned to be much better for the race). Ocon, Vettel, Giovinazzi, and Russell exited at this stage.

And so the scene was set for another titanic battle for pole. Verstappen had looked good all weekend but could Mercedes snatch the top slot for themselves? No. They got close, and Hamilton, who had been on the back foot, did very well to haul himself up into 2^nd, but it was the Dutchman who was fastest of the lot. Row two is Bottas and Perez, so the inter-team battle is going to be fun off the line. Advantage Red Bull in the title fight, given this was seen as a Silver Arrows circuit?

Sainz was the best of the rest and has looked impressive throughout qualifying and practice, handily faster than his team mate. Starting alongside the Spaniard is a Frenchman: Pierre Gasly, who’s having a rather good 2021 so far. Leclerc and Norris comprise row four, followed by Alonso and Ricciardo.

The medium tyre of the frontrunners should reduce the potential of those behind them to engage in strategic shenanigans.

Weather should be similar to qualifying, with no penalties I can see at the time of writing.

Early betting thoughts:
Red Bull/Ferrari top score
Stroll points
Alonso top 6

Well, I thought Ferrari might pick up the pieces if the top two take one another out but this market isn’t even up, so shan’t be betting on that…

Stroll starts 19^th with choice of tyres, so I’m guessing likely hard. He’s got a decent race car (Vettel’s 12^th is about par) and a contra-strategy could work out for him. Reasonable chance but far from a dead cert. The odds are 4.5, which is in the area of neither terrible nor fantastic.

Alonso’s been slowly getting back into the groove, and his racing has improved more rapidly than his qualifying. He starts 9^th, and outqualified Ocon (starting 11^th). Similarly to Stroll, this is far from a dead cert. His odds are 3.25 (4.3 with Betfair Exchange). Same deal, basically.

So, time to eyeball the markets and see if anything looks nice.

Sainz, winner without big 4, 3
Ferrari, winner without big 2, 1.73
Aston Martin, double points finish, 9

The first two are highly similar and rely on Sainz (and possibly Leclerc) continuing to do well. Of the two men, the Spaniard has had the edge on the Monegasque this weekend, although Leclerc’s tendency to be good to his tyres does make me wonder if he might finish ahead in the race. Reasonable chance of it happening, not amazing odds.

The Aston Martin bet would be more optimistic and might depend on some chaps ahead screwing up. Vettel’s coming off the back of two good race performances, and Stroll might benefit from fortuitous pit stop timing if there’s a late safety car after others have made their (more time-expensive) stops. Not sure 9 is enough, though.

Not terribly heroic, but I decided to back Sainz to be winner without the big 4 at 3 (3.1 with boost). He’s been driving well all weekend whereas Leclerc’s looked out of sorts.

Race start is 2pm, UK time.

Morris Dancer