Styrian Grand Prix: pre-race 2020

Very soggy conditions in qualifying made for a very entertaining hour or so. It was delayed by 46 minutes or so, and set up the race nicely.

Q1 started on full wets, and although it got a little bit drier there was never any question of changing tyres (this persisted throughout the whole of qualifying). The Racing Point was oddly slow in the wet, with Perez surprisingly failing to make it out of the first session. Both Alfa Romeos also departed at this stage, Giovinazzi having the only real crash (he managed to keep going although the last 12 seconds got red flagged). Grosjean also went off-track and pitted, never to return. Latifi, in his second ever qualifying, got 18^th, which isn’t bad.

In Q2 it was very similar stuff, Russell doing well to qualify 12^th for Williams, and Stroll only managing 13^th. Given Racing Point might by the third or fourth fastest team in the dry, that’s a pretty big Achilles’ heel. Kvyat and Magnussen also left at this stage. But the shock departure this time was Ferrari. Leclerc rather than Vettel failed to make it out of Q2. It never rains but it pours.

Q3 was frenetic in the wet, with Hamilton seeming dominant, and grabbing pole. Verstappen’s over a second behind in 2^nd, with Sainz an impressive 3^rd for the resurgent McLaren. Bottas could only manage 4^th, followed Ocon. Norris was the sixth fastest but his three place grid penalty means he’ll start 9^th, and promotes Albon, Gasly, and Ricciardo. Even with the penalty, he starts ahead of Vettel.

The weather for tomorrow looks overcast but dry.

Leclerc was under investigation for impeding during qualifying and failure to pit under the red flag, whilst Perez had a yellow flag investigation. In the end, Leclerc got a three place grid penalty for impeding Kvyat, promoting Russell, Stroll, and Kvyat. This means Russell starts 11^th.

At the moment my thoughts drift to:

Bottas win each way

Stroll not to be classified

Ferrari double points

Russell point

Bottas is 5.5 each way to win, third the odds top 2. So it’s green if he’s 1^st or 2^nd, and given the Mercedes pace dominance last time, somewhat masked by the multiple safety cars closing up the field and fragility over the curbs (a known factor now) that could prove quite a good bet.

Stroll is 4 not to be classified, a feeling based on last time’s reliability failure and starting in the thick of things off the line (12^th). Credible, maybe not value at those odds.

Ferrari are 1.73 for a double points finish. Leclerc starts 14^th and Vettel 10^th. Not value. The red card was pretty solid, when many others were not, but the odds are too short given it requires both to come home top 10.

Russell is 4 for a point. Hmm. He’s driving very well and starts in 11^th. On the other hand, Williams may be faster than the Alfa Romeo and Haas but (in the dry) perhaps no-one else. Was reliable, though, last time out.

Of those, Bottas to win is my preferred bet at this stage by quite some distance. As is traditional, I browsed the market to see if anything else leapt out at me.

Vettel to beat Leclerc, 1.91

Norris to be race winner without the big 6, each way 11

Vettel starts 4 places ahead of Leclerc, and, unlike last time, there’s no tyre choice advantage for those starting outside the top 10. They’ve also been pretty similar pace-wise in both wet and dry conditions, although the Monegasque may have a small edge.

Norris starts 9^th due to his three place grid penalty, but in terms of drivers outside the big 6 that leaves Sainz, Ocon, Gasly, and Ricciardo ahead of him. In the dry his car should be more than a match for the AlphaTauri, and I think Ocon will end up going backwards too. Ricciardo’s talented but his car did break last time out, and the best Ocon managed was 8^th out of 13 classified finishers. Ricciardo was over half a second slower in dry qualifying last weekend. Odds of 11 each way (third the odds top 2) do make this quite appealing.

So, I rather like both the Bottas and Norris bets. Hmm.

In the end I plumped for both, with Bottas to win each way at 5.75 (with boost) and Norris to win without the big 6 each way at 12 (with boost).

Let’s hope the race is as exciting as last time, but more profitable.

Morris Dancer