Hungary: pre-race 2020

As expected, Mercedes locked out the front row and Racing Point had a very strong qualifying session to line up right behind them. Hamilton snagged pole, with Bottas close but not close enough for the hedge to be matched, so a red session.

Life continues to be tough for Alfa Romeo, both of whose cars were slowest, Raikkonen being dead last. Barely ahead of them were the Haas cars, the bread of a Kvyat sandwich. Good for Williams, though, to have both cars escape Q1.

They were unable to do likewise in Q2, but Russell’s 12^th is a stronger start than we’ve seen from the team in recent seasons. Latifi could only manage 15^th, with Ricciardo, Albon (who was very unhappy about his car and traffic over the radio), and Ocon also failing to progress.

Q3 in Hungary was the first of the year to feature two Ferraris. They had a pretty good performance too, getting the third row to themselves with soon-to-be-ex-driver Vettel half a tenth ahead of Leclerc. We shall see how they get on at the start. At the front, naturally, were the Mercedes, with Hamilton narrowly ahead of Bottas. Hard to pass here, so the Finn could very much do with a quick getaway. Racing Point have been strong all weekend so far, with other teams increasingly irked that the copy and paste function is gifting them such performance. Stroll qualified ahead of Perez, slightly surprisingly, on the second row.

It’s a testament to how well McLaren have been doing that 8^th and 9^th is perhaps disappointing. However, they’ve tended to perform well in races and we’ll see if that form holds true. Norris is ahead of Sainz, making it 2-1 in qualifying to the Briton. Verstappen was 7^th, but his car also seemed a bit twitchy. Gasly starts 10^th, having reached Q3 but engine woe meaning he couldn’t set a time.

Importantly, the Mercedes and Racing Point cars all start on the medium tyre, which is thought to be strategically advantageous.

There don’t appear to be any penalties (although late ones can strike…) and it seems the weather is likely dry with a chance of light showers.

At the time of writing my thoughts go to the following potential bets:

Perez, podium

Racing Point, double top 6 finish

Verstappen, not to be classified

No safety car

Ocon/Ricciardo, not to be classified

Perez is evens for a podium. Whilst he has a credible chance, there’s likely to only be one spot free behind the Mercedes and those odds do not appeal.

Racing Point are 1.44 for a double top 6 finish. Again, too short given both are required to achieve that.

Verstappen is 6.5 not to be classified. Given the car’s twitchiness and a reliability failure in Austria, that may be worth considering.

There’s 2.37 on no safety car. Somewhat tempting. Hungary has a relatively low incidence due to passing being hard, meaning large gaps, and significant run off areas. It’s also 2.7 on Betfair, which is rather nicer.

Ocon and Ricciardo are 3 and 3.4 not to be classified each. They each have one reliability failure so far, which is very high given this is only the third round.

Perusing the market generally, the following looked of interest:

Bottas, win each way, 4.5

Vettel, podium, 4.33 (5.4 on Betfair)

Russell, points, 5

The stand out bet looks like Bottas to win each way at 4.5, third the odds top 2. The Mercedes looks to be in a class of its own. And this is green whether he’s 1^st or 2^nd at the flag. I’m backing this.

Vettel starts on the third row and was a reasonable margin behind the Racing Points. Hard to say if they’ll be that fast in the race, and the Ferrari does seem to have improved. On the potential downside, the Pink Panthers do start on the medium tyre, whereas the Ferraris will be on the soft.

Russell got 12^th on the grid on pace, and if he either has a good race or reliability from those ahead of him fails, points are credible. Against that is Albon starting right behind him, and a mistake causing a spin in Styria.

I’ve decided to back Bottas for the win, each way at 4.5, and split one stake evenly between Ricciardo and Ocon not to be classified, at 3.4 and 3 respectively. [Prices are without boost, marginally longer with].

Race starts at 2.10pm. Let’s hope it’s entertaining and profitable.

Morris Dancer