Styrian Grand Prix: post-race analysis 2020

Bloody hell. That was an exciting finish. And delightfully profitable too.

One thing I didn’t realise before the race start was that Norris had some sort of problem with his ribs. Probably wouldn't've offered that tip had I known.

Off the line it was mostly holding positions, with a few major exceptions. Leclerc mounted a curb after trying an improbable pass on his team mate, which had the effect of damaging the Monegasque’s floor (forcing him to retire a few laps later) and destroying Vettel’s front wing, and his race as well. Nightmare for Ferrari, who had brought forward some upgrades for their car and have no idea if/how well they work.

It also brought out an early safety car, which didn’t, ultimately have much effect on anything.

Upon the restart the McLaren of Sainz started going backwards, but this was very understandable as his car isn’t as fast as the Mercedes or Red Bull. However, Norris also started going backwards, and was soon behind the Renaults and Racing Points (Perez had started well and profited through the chaos of the Ferrari collision). I was a bit surprised by this serious lack of pace, but having seen the whole race I wonder if Sainz is better on soft tyres and Norris on the medium.

Bottas eventually passed Albon and began slowly getting closer to Verstappen. Albon began drifting backwards into a sort of No Man’s Land. Hamilton cruised serenely on, whilst Verstappen wasn’t really able to make any headway. The Dutchman pitted relatively early to avoid a Finnish undercut. Unfortunately for him, he picked up some front wing damage which compromised his pace and made it easier for Bottas to close the gap later on.

Ocon retired due to a reliability failing, suggesting the Renault is pretty fragile.

Sainz had a slow pit stop which put him out in traffic. He’d been faster than Norris all weekend but the Briton appeared faster late on so McLaren made a smart set of strategic calls. They had Norris let past to chase after the Racing Point of Stroll (hassling Ricciardo’s rear, Perez having passed the Aussie already and begun the process of hunting down Albon), then had Sainz get a free pit stop (such was his advantage over Kvyat behind) to try for the fastest lap.

Perez was clearly faster than Albon and gobbled up the gap. Soon he was within striking distance. And then three backmarkers produced some traffic woe. But he got back within striking range. And the move didn’t quite come off. He damaged his front wing, and even though there was just a lap to go he was losing a vast amount of time. Could he retain fifth place?

Near (but not too near) the sharp end, Bottas easily blasted past Verstappen on the straight, only for the Dutchman to immediately retake the place having realised he was going to lose out due to his aero problems. The second time around the Finn was a little wiser and retained 2^nd.

Further back, Stroll was clearly faster than Ricciardo but struggling to make headway. The talented Aussie was also having some sort of pace problem (he’d been surprisingly swift early on) but was driving an excellent defensive race. This allowed the freed Norris to catch the pair of them. Just as he did so they both made a mistake and all three were together on the penultimate lap. The Briton managed to get past the pair of them but was several seconds behind Perez.

But Perez, who had driven a very good race indeed and was unlucky to suffer such damage from a perhaps clumsy move on Albon, was losing time hand over fist. Norris passed Perez just before the final corner, with the Mexican just about managing to hold onto 6^th, within touching distance of Stroll and Ricciardo (in that order). Sainz ended up 9^th, and Kvyat 10^th. Still a fantastic result for Perez, who started 17^th.

That was quite a final lap. From a betting perspective, although the Norris bet was obviously flukey I also think I got lucky with the Bottas one. On raw pace, and without wing damage, I think Verstappen would’ve been able to retain 2^nd with little difficulty. But I’ve had my share of misfortune in betting so I’m not going to complain about a pair of nice results, even if they were down to good luck rather than sound judgement.

I significantly underestimated the pace of the Racing Point and Renault, and somewhat underestimated Red Bull too. But the race was thrilling and both bets came off, one each way and the other outright (at 12, which is nice).

McLaren’s clever strategy worked off both ways, with Sainz nabbing the fastest lap point and Norris being fastest out the ‘big 6’ (I wonder if Ladbrokes is going to change that to ‘big 4’). Racing Point had great pace and whilst Perez will rue not finishing higher they still got great points.

[Numbers note: quickly added these up myself so errors may’ve crept in].

Drivers:

Bottas 43

Hamilton 37

Norris 26

Leclerc 18

Perez 16

Verstappen 15

Sainz 13

Albon 12

Hamilton narrows the gap, though Bottas retains top position, for now. Norris is doing very nicely, and whilst I think it’s inevitable Verstappen will pass him in this table over the course of the season it’ll be fascinating to see how well the Briton can do. Perez and Sainz are both doing very well too. Albon was some way off Verstappen and I wonder how long Red Bull will make do with a driver who doesn’t seem able to be on the same page as Verstappen. When he left, Ricciardo was regularly a tenth or two behind the hyper-talented Dutchman but since then the Aussie’s looked superb by way of comparison with Gasly and Albon (who’s only in his second season).

Constructors:

Mercedes 80

McLaren 39

Red Bull 27

Racing Point 22

Ferrari 19

Renault 8

AlphaTauri 6

Alfa Romeo 2

Haas/Williams 0

Mercedes have this won. But for McLaren to be second, even if temporarily, is great encouragement for a team that swiftly went from zenith to nadir and have found the way back to the top a lot harder than the plunge to the back of the grid. Red Bull should overhaul that handily, but McLaren could yet end up the third fastest team. Ferrari will be furiously trying to upgrade their car, and Racing Point/Renault could prove stiff competition over the course of the season, but so far the orange fellows are doing rather well. Unlike Haas and Williams, who sadly have yet to trouble the scorers.

Returning to the lap 1 Leclerc collision: he took responsibility, which is right, because it was his fault. Weirdly, the Italian answer to Harry Potter currently in charge of mismanaging the Ferrari team has wibbled about not assigning blame. I don’t think Leclerc deserves putting in the stocks but when someone is clearly in the wrong, having made an error judgement (which happens) and then committed the cardinal sin of taking out both himself and his team mate, that should be acknowledged. Instead, Mattia Binotto has decided to pretend that rambling about ‘unity’ is the way to go.

If Vettel had cocked up would that be the line? Probably not. My fear is that next year Sainz, a talented and likeable chap, will find himself in the position Massa did with Alonso (albeit with the more amiable Leclerc). This move to Ferrari might be a backward step for the Spaniard.

Hungary is next weekend. Yep, three on the bounce. To be honest, I’d rather have a third race in Austria, given how the first two have gone, but there we are.

Morris Dancer