Austria: pre-race 2020

An entertaining and profitable session, so huzzah for that.

Would Mercedes be as dominant as many thought? Would Racing Point or McLaren be best of the rest? Just how fast were Ferrari?

The first session confirmed that the Alfa Romeo and Williams teams are the slowest, with all their drivers departing. However, things were quite tight and Raikkonen felt traffic prevented him making the most of his potential. Magnussen was also eliminated in Q1.

In Q2 we discovered that Ferrari are so slow that a four time world champion failed to make it through. Vettel was 11^th fastest, Leclerc scraping through in 10^th. Until they get a big upgrade, Ferrari are perhaps the fifth or sixth fastest team (their engine looks a particular weak spot). It’s the most dramatic slump in form perhaps since McLaren (who, by contrast, got both cars into Q3). The two Alpha Tauris also failed to progress, as did a lacklustre Ocon, and Grosjean (who was just one place ahead of Magnussen, indicating Haas is also not great right now).

Q2 was also notable for Verstappen trying, and succeeding, with a contra-strategy to start on the medium rather than the soft tyre, the only chap to do so. Could prove handy.

In Q3 was had something of a surprise. After the first runs, Bottas was fastest ahead of Hamilton. It was at this point I became mildly annoyed with instantly dismissing the 5 on him (each way third the odds top 2) which I should’ve gone for. During the first runs, Sainz performed well. However, the second run saw Bottas go off-roading, buggering his car and compromising the prospects of his team mate and other drivers too. Norris set his only lap time here, getting a tasty 4^th (right behind Verstappen, who was half a second off the Mercedes, alas) and I’m not sure if he’ll be in trouble over that, though it seems not.

Albon was two-tenths off the Briton, and ‘ahead’ of Perez, who got the exact same time. Leclerc may be oddly pleased with 7^th, ahead of Sainz who was unable to improve on his second run, perhaps due to the brief Bottas-induced yellow flag. Nevertheless, both the Spaniard and his car have been impressive this weekend. Stroll, who had earlier outpaced his team mate, starts 9^th, with Ricciardo 10^th.

The one potential problem that could upset Mercedes is that it’s going to be even hotter tomorrow, with barely a cloud forecast. Of course, forecasts can be wrong and it might not upset them at all, but one of the few times in recent years the Silver Arrows have suffered a horrendous weekend was caused by high temperatures at this circuit.

I do wonder if inferior grip for Ferrari might also harm their tyre conservation.

My feeling based on qualifying is that the top three on the grid will likely stay that way, with the possibility/probability of Hamilton overtaking Bottas. Further back is much tighter and more difficult to tell. I was slightly surprised, after third practice, that Racing Point didn’t have a small edge over McLaren.

Looking through the markets of Ladbrokes this morning, the following caught my eye:

Perez, podium, 3.8

Ricciardo, win group 3, 2.75 (other drivers Stroll, Vettel, Gasly)

Norris, podium, 7

Hamilton-Bottas-Verstappen to finish in that order on the podium, 5.5

Sainz, top 6, 2.5

Sainz, race winner without the big 6, 5 (each way, third the odds top 2)

Mercedes, double podium, 1.3

McLaren, double top 6 finish, 4

Vettel, not to be classified 6.5

Lots to chew over.

The Ricciardo bet I decided to throw out due to relatively short odds and the prospect of Stroll’s Racing Point proving too fast, or the Aussie’s car possibly having weaker reliability.

I think the Perez or Norris podium bets require a DNF or other black swan from the three ahead of them. The Perez bet has odds too short to keep on that basis, though the 7 on Norris is more tempting.

Sainz top 6 means he has to get ahead of two chaps. I think he may well have the legs to overtake Leclerc, but after that it’s trickier. Norris has the same car and Perez is a pretty dogged driver. On that basis, 2.5 may be a bit too short. Particularly when there’s 5 to be the winner without the big 6 available, with an each way option. Likewise, I decided against the McLaren double top 6, which also has the increased risk of failure due to one of them having a bad day.

The 1.3 on a Mercedes double podium is very short. But they look a cut above everyone with the potential exception of Verstappen. Short, though…

I quite like the 6.5 on Vettel not being classified. His car has been slower than it should be, so he starts in the midfield, the perfect place to either be hit from the side or back, or to be collected by trouble ahead. But it’s always a bit of guesswork and we have no data on reliability.

Although there are multiple contingencies, I do think the top three on the grid are very likely to remain that way at the podium, with Hamilton having a strong chance of passing Bottas and Verstappen above everyone except the Mercedes. I’ve decided to back the 5.5 on the finishing order being Hamilton (with the win), Bottas, Verstappen.

Wondering about backing Sainz at 5 to be race winner without the big 6. He does have Stroll right behind him whilst Norris and Perez start some way ahead, but I rate his driving ability. I’ve decided against it. A plausible outcome certainly, and I’ll be annoyed if it happens now, but for it come off fully (and each way is barely green) he has to get past both Norris and Perez who start four and two places ahead of him on the grid.

[Ladbrokes was behaving a little oddly for me, initially indicating I had no account funds, then thinking they were dollars, and finally, upon re-signing in again, confirming I had some pounds after all].

That’s 5.75, with boost, on Hamilton to win, with Bottas 2^nd and Verstappen 3^rd.

Let’s hope the race is a good one.

Morris Dancer