France: pre-race 2019
Ahead of qualifying,
Kvyat had a penalty so would start last (a shame as he looked pretty
good in the little running he had), and Hulkenberg is on an inferior
engine to Ricciardo, said to be worth a few tenths of a second.
Sadly, Q1 once again
saw the Williams last by some way. Stroll also continued his run of
poor qualifying results, and Grosjean failed to progress (not sure
but I think Haas had some upgrades and Magnussen got them rather than
him). Kvyat didn’t go any further but won’t really care, and
perhaps wasn’t trying his best, as the aforementioned penalty means
he starts last anyway.
A number of cars (most
who progressed, including the Ferraris, Verstappen’s Red Bull,
Mercedes, and I think McLarens) went out on the mid-pace medium tyre
as the faster soft apparently only lasts half a dozen laps before
disintegrating. Those who made it to Q3 with the soft tyres,
including Gasly, might be in for a rougher race. Albon did well but
not well enough, being the fastest chap to be eliminated. Raikkonen
also failed to progress, with his team mate Giovinazzi reaching Q3.
Hulkenberg could only manage 13th, and it can’t be
blamed entirely on the engine difference as he buggered up his final
lap. Perez and Magnussen were the slowest but both did outqualify
their team mates.
Would it be yet another
Silver Arrows front row lockout?
Yes.
Things had looked tight
but Hamilton was able to improve on his second run whereas Bottas
could not, and the Briton’s advantage was stretched to nearly
three-tenths of a second. Leclerc qualified 3rd but was
over six-tenths off Hamilton’s pace. Verstappen got 4th,
which will please him and the team but he was just nine-thousandths
ahead of Norris, who’s looked tasty all weekend. Sainz was just a
tenth off, making the third row McLaren territory, to the delight of
the team (and rightly so).
Vettel had some errors
and an upshift problem during his first run. And his second, frankly,
was slow. He qualified 7th, eight-tenths off Leclerc.
That’s a pretty sizeable gap, and even though he’s looked the
slower Ferrari all weekend, the position and time difference is cause
for concern. Ricciardo is just a tenth off his old Red Bull team
mate, ahead of Gasly (9th) and Giovinazzi.
The front row is
tediously familiar but the strong performance by McLaren, Vettel
being out of position, and a second row that will be very keen to
make a lightning start could make things interesting. Last year there
was collision early on between Vettel and Bottas, which shook up the
order quite a bit.
My first thoughts
betting after qualifying were:
Vettel, not to be
classified [check DNFs last year]
Verstappen, podium
Raikkonen points
Upon checking, last
year there were just three DNFs, two of which were on the opening
lap. I do wonder about backing Vettel not to be classified, though.
He seems a bit off-kilter this weekend. Against that, his car is
generally very reliable and the French circuit is mostly car park
flat, with run-off for days. He’s 7 not to be classified, which
isn’t bad.
Verstappen has been
driving almost flawlessly this year, and usually makes up places.
Given he starts 4th, that indicates he has a decent chance
of getting on the podium. Against that, the Mercedes look out of
reach and Leclerc has been competitive all weekend, so it’s far
from a certainty. At 2.75, this is worth keeping in mind.
Raikkonen starts 12th
and has choice of tyres. Although he hasn’t scored for a little
while, he’s still fast and reliable, and his car is also one of the
least likely to have a breakdown. 2.25 is a bit short, I think,
though.
Mr. Sandpit suggested
looking at Hulkenberg for points, and Kvyat likewise, with the
question of the McLarens holding top 6 positions hanging in the air
(5.5 together or 2.1 and 2.37 individually). Kvyat is 4.33 for
points, and Hulkenberg is 1.61. Of those, I think I’d prefer Kvyat
(small note: Russell also got demoted to the back, unsure if he
starts behind Kvyat or not).
Anyway, having waited
until the next day I then perused the markets to see if anything
leapt out at me.
Verstappen, beat
Leclerc, 2.75
McLaren, double points,
1.61
There’s also a really
tasty 5.5 on Leclerc beating Verstappen, as match bet 3 (especially
good as alternative match bet 1 has Verstappen at 2.75 to beat
Leclerc). However, I’m certain it’s meant to say Gasly and that
it’ll likely be changed when they realise the error. Might put down
a pound or two just to find out.
The Verstappen odds on
beating Leclerc are identical to the podium odds, which probably
makes sense given the pace and reliability of the Mercedes.
McLaren had poor
reliability earlier but have been a bit steadier of late. Both cars
and drivers have been performing well all weekend, and if they stay
out of trouble early on I think they’re highly likely to get
points. The odds, however, are a bit tight.
Nothing really leaps
out at me, to be honest. Verstappen should make gains, relatively, on
Ferrari’s pace from qualifying but he’s been significantly slower
all weekend.
Albon at 2.2 and
Raikkonen at 2.25 for points seem good (Mr. Sandpit helpfully pointed
out that pit stops cost a lot of time, and Ricciardo, Gasly, and
Giovinazzi start on the soft tyres.
It’s not very heroic,
but then, I’m not very confident, so my tip is to split one stake
evenly between Albon and Raikkonen for points (2.2 and 2.25
respectively).
Start time is a little
after 2pm (UK).
Morris Dancer
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