Canada: pre-qualifying 2019
O Canada. Home of many
great races, including the most satisfying victory and betting win of
them all (Button winning in 2011, having been last more than halfway
into the race). It was also where tyres crumbled unexpectedly,
leading the dimwits in charge to command new tyre supplier Pirelli to
make their tyres crumbly, in the mistaken belief that team principals
were stupid and would fail to recognise the usually optimal approach
would be to make the drivers trundle around more slowly (hence the
current era).
Canada’s also notable
for being one of Hamilton’s best tracks, having a couple of
decent-sized straights, and a hairpin suitable for passing. It’s an
actual race track rather than a nostalgia procession.
Worth noting that all
six fastest lap points so far have been evenly spread across the top
three teams.
Fastest lap positions:
2 wins
1 3rd
1 4th
2 5th
Leclerc and Gasly have
two each, Hamilton and Bottas one each. Or, to rephrase, 33% have
been winners showboating, and 67% have been comfortable no hopers
(for the win) from the top six. So far weather hasn’t interfered
with this.
Writing this on the
28th of May, and my current view is Hamilton should storm
to victory. I think Haas might struggle due to tyres and overtaking
opportunities. They could qualify well and drift backwards (although
the weather could play a critical role). Ferrari have great straight
line speed, though they’re a step behind Mercedes/Verstappen on
slower stuff, so on a car basis the top three should be quite close.
Ahead of practice there
were two markets, both Hamilton win specials, that intrigued me. 12
wins for the entire 2019 season was 4, which I was sorely tempted by,
and the 19 for 14 wins was appealing for a small stake. Yet the
markets appeared suspended over days when I tried to place a bet. Oh
well.
It’s also worth
stating there’s some electrical problems at my house, so if I’m
suddenly absent it’s likely due to technical problems rather than
unexpected baboon attack.
In first practice
Hamilton was a tenth up on Bottas, but nearly a second ahead of the
next man (Leclerc). Behind the Monegasque, but only just, was
Verstappen, followed by Vettel, Raikkonen, Sainz, Ricciardo, Perez
and Magnussen.
Second practice was
rather different. Leclerc was fastest, less than a tenth ahead of
Vettel. Bottas was a similar distance further back, with Sainz only a
couple of tenths behind. Magnussen and Hamilton were next, both about
four-tenths off the Spaniard, followed by Perez, Ricciardo,
Hulkenberg, and Stroll.
I’d considered, and
decided against, a pre-practice bet on Leclerc for fastest qualifier.
He was about 6 or 6.5. After first practice his odds went out to 7.5,
and after second practice dropped back to 6. Unfortunately the each
way aspect is only top 2, so it could just be down to the car.
Come third practice, I
regretted not backing him. Vettel was fastest, a tenth ahead of
Leclerc. Hamilton was two-tenths further back, with Bottas nearly
three-tenths off his team mate. Verstappen and Gasly, unusually close
to one another, were about a third of a second away from the Finn.
Ricciardo, Perez, Norris, and Kvyat were next, and very close
together.
After third practice,
Leclerc’s odds were just 3. But Bottas had lengthened to 6. As well
as a string of poles this year, Bottas actually beat Hamilton in
Canadian qualifying in 2018. On the other hand, the Ferraris topped
two out of three sessions and ‘won’ qualifying last year.
Knotty trying to decide
but I’ve decided not to tip it. Too close to call.
The pre-race ramble
will be up sometime tomorrow, electricity permitting.
Morris Dancer
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