Canada: pre-qualifying 2019


O Canada. Home of many great races, including the most satisfying victory and betting win of them all (Button winning in 2011, having been last more than halfway into the race). It was also where tyres crumbled unexpectedly, leading the dimwits in charge to command new tyre supplier Pirelli to make their tyres crumbly, in the mistaken belief that team principals were stupid and would fail to recognise the usually optimal approach would be to make the drivers trundle around more slowly (hence the current era).

Canada’s also notable for being one of Hamilton’s best tracks, having a couple of decent-sized straights, and a hairpin suitable for passing. It’s an actual race track rather than a nostalgia procession.

Worth noting that all six fastest lap points so far have been evenly spread across the top three teams.
Fastest lap positions:
2 wins
1 3rd
1 4th
2 5th

Leclerc and Gasly have two each, Hamilton and Bottas one each. Or, to rephrase, 33% have been winners showboating, and 67% have been comfortable no hopers (for the win) from the top six. So far weather hasn’t interfered with this.

Writing this on the 28th of May, and my current view is Hamilton should storm to victory. I think Haas might struggle due to tyres and overtaking opportunities. They could qualify well and drift backwards (although the weather could play a critical role). Ferrari have great straight line speed, though they’re a step behind Mercedes/Verstappen on slower stuff, so on a car basis the top three should be quite close.

Ahead of practice there were two markets, both Hamilton win specials, that intrigued me. 12 wins for the entire 2019 season was 4, which I was sorely tempted by, and the 19 for 14 wins was appealing for a small stake. Yet the markets appeared suspended over days when I tried to place a bet. Oh well.

It’s also worth stating there’s some electrical problems at my house, so if I’m suddenly absent it’s likely due to technical problems rather than unexpected baboon attack.

In first practice Hamilton was a tenth up on Bottas, but nearly a second ahead of the next man (Leclerc). Behind the Monegasque, but only just, was Verstappen, followed by Vettel, Raikkonen, Sainz, Ricciardo, Perez and Magnussen.

Second practice was rather different. Leclerc was fastest, less than a tenth ahead of Vettel. Bottas was a similar distance further back, with Sainz only a couple of tenths behind. Magnussen and Hamilton were next, both about four-tenths off the Spaniard, followed by Perez, Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, and Stroll.

I’d considered, and decided against, a pre-practice bet on Leclerc for fastest qualifier. He was about 6 or 6.5. After first practice his odds went out to 7.5, and after second practice dropped back to 6. Unfortunately the each way aspect is only top 2, so it could just be down to the car.

Come third practice, I regretted not backing him. Vettel was fastest, a tenth ahead of Leclerc. Hamilton was two-tenths further back, with Bottas nearly three-tenths off his team mate. Verstappen and Gasly, unusually close to one another, were about a third of a second away from the Finn. Ricciardo, Perez, Norris, and Kvyat were next, and very close together.

After third practice, Leclerc’s odds were just 3. But Bottas had lengthened to 6. As well as a string of poles this year, Bottas actually beat Hamilton in Canadian qualifying in 2018. On the other hand, the Ferraris topped two out of three sessions and ‘won’ qualifying last year.

Knotty trying to decide but I’ve decided not to tip it. Too close to call.

The pre-race ramble will be up sometime tomorrow, electricity permitting.

Morris Dancer

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