Austria: pre-race 2019

Well, I’ve had a frustrating week so a frustrating bet fits in nicely. There’s a good chance the Vettel bet would’ve come off, likely with him starting 2^nd, but his car developed some sort of problem and he wasn’t able to run in Q3. Still, that’s betting. Sometimes Lady Luck gives you a lapdance. Sometimes she defecates in your kettle.

In Q1 the Williams were, as usual, slowest, and both Racing Point drivers failed to progress. Kvyat, who was clearly blocked (see below), was unable to escape and qualified between the Williams and Racing Point teams.

In Q2 there was some interesting mixed strategy. The Mercedes used standard operating procedure and went out on the medium tyre, presumed better for starting the race due to better longevity compared to the faster soft tyre. Ferrari, however, who had looked tasty in Q1, leapt the other way and both Vettel and Leclerc set their times on the soft tyre. Red Bull further mixed things up by having Verstappen on the medium and Gasly (who’s looked a bit more competitive this weekend, generally) on the soft. It was a poor session for Renault, with both cars failing to progress, and Albon likewise left at this stage. Sainz didn’t go any further but that’s due to a very slow time in the full knowledge he’s starting at the back (see below). Grosjean was the fastest eliminated driver.

Q3 had the big six joined by both Alfas, Norris, and Magnussen. And by ‘big six’ I mean ‘big five’ because Vettel had some sort of problem (which turned out to be a weird new failure with a pneumatic connection) and couldn’t drive out of the garage. After the first runs, Leclerc was looking the man to beat, with Verstappen splitting the Mercedes and Bottas ahead of Hamilton.

In the end, the Monegasque was simply too fast, and on one of the shortest laps of the year was a quarter of a second ahead of Hamilton (but it’ll be Verstappen who starts alongside him due to Hamilton’s three place grid penalty). Bottas failed to improve on his second run and qualified right behind Verstappen, and the second row will be Bottas and Norris, who has a very high starting slot for his first ever Austrian Grand Prix. Keeping it will be tricky as Hamilton starts 5^th, alongside Raikkonen (Magnussen qualified 5^th but is demoted to 10^th), with Giovinazzi and Gasly on the fourth row, Vettel and Magnussen being the fifth.

Edited extra bit: That’s weird. Hamilton’s now listed as starting 4^th, with Norris 5^th. Hmm. Apparently it’s because Magnussen was 5^th and got demoted. It’s bizarre to qualify 2^nd, get a three place grid penalty, and start 4^th.

As Adam Cooper (worth following on Twitter) said, it’s remarkable that the only people starting where they qualified are Leclerc and Grosjean (1^st and 11^th respectively).

Very good result for Leclerc, Verstappen, Norris and Alfa. Very unlucky for Vettel, and rather lacklustre, in the end, from Gasly, who set the slowest Q3 time of the nine who completed a lap, seven-tenths off Verstappen.

Penalties aplenty. Sainz and Albon have major changes and start the back, Magnussen and Hulkenberg both have five place penalties for upgrades. Hamilton was investigated for blocking Raikkonen during qualifying and got a three place penalty, and Russell likewise blocked Kvyat (pretty blatant, though the Williams was backed into it by those ahead of him slowing down) and received a three place penalty.

My initial betting thoughts were:

Verstappen, win

Safety Car

Ferrari top score

Vettel, top six

Verstappen’s odds on winning are 5 on Ladbrokes (5.5 on the win-only market), and a hefty 7.8 on Betfair. The latter is pretty tempting, as a hedged bet. If the medium tyre approach is better, then the Dutchman is looking pretty tasty, splitting the Mercedes in qualifying and racing well all season. Quite tempting to back that at 7.8 and hedge at 3.

A safety car is 1.53 to appear. That might be value given wind and the rate of crashing earlier in the weekend.

Ferrari are 1.72 for most team points. If Vettel’s car is functioning that may be value. But it also means their contra-strategy on tyres needs to work. At those odds, not one I’ll be backing.

Vettel is 1.25 for a top 6 finish. Might be worth marrying that to a not to be classified bet (the odds of which are 8).

Right now the Verstappen bet is looking appealing but I checked the markets to see if anything else leapt out at me. Here’s what I saw:

Verstappen, lap 1 leader, 5

Hulkenberg to beat Perez, 2.75

Giovinazzi, winner without the big 6, 10

Grosjean, winner, without the big 6, 17

Hamilton, winner, 4.5

Pole-sitters have tended not to lead first laps this year, and Bottas has started a bit more clunkily than others. 5 is about average for the 2nd-placed chap to make the jump. I’d probably prefer the back-and-hedge approach to Verstappen winning, to be honest.

Hulkenberg starts 15^th, Perez starts 13^th. The Racing Point, however, was the second slowest car in qualifying and Hulkenberg has an upgraded engine (the ensuing penalty is why he’s starting behind rather than ahead of his old team mate). 2.75 is quite tempting.

Tyres may degrade less than last time, making strategy more flexible. How this plays out will affect who not only the winner is, but who is best of the midfield. Norris and Raikkonen start ahead of Giovinazzi, with odds (in grid order) of 1.66, 3, and 10 respectively. It’s worth noting Giovinazzi did go backwards in the last race, from a good qualifying position. If the soft tyre works, however, then he might be worth a look, each way.

If the medium tyre is the better, or fresh tyres at least, then Grosjean at 11^th is quite appealing. The Haas seems more competitive here, with Magnussen’s pace putting him 5^th (prior to the penalty), and 11^th means Grosjean can pick and choose his rubber (but whatever he opts for will be fresh).

Hamilton to win only popped into my head last moment. Bit weird considering he’s had about three-quarters of the victories so far. The odds are 4.5, which are surprisingly long, though he does start 4^th and both Leclerc and Verstappen are looking very competitive this weekend.

Of all the bets considered above, the most interesting are Verstappen to win (back and hedge), and Hulkenberg to beat Perez. I quite like Grosjean being best of the rest but he’s had poor results this year, scraping a couple of 10^th places.

I’ve decided to back Hulkenberg to beat Perez at 2.75. His car is faster at this track, and the recent trajectory is opposite, with Perez scoring early in the season but not for a while (and his car’s relative performance declining) whereas Hulkenberg’s points have mostly come from recent races, and he has an upgraded engine.

I’ve also backed Verstappen at 7.8 (set up a hedge at 3) on Betfair for the win. Last year he went from 4^th to 1^st (admittedly aided by Bottas/Vettel saying hello early on). The Red Bull was competitive in qualifying and relatively faster on race pace, and he’s driving very well this year.

Anyway, we shall see how the race progresses. Let’s hope that it’s as entertaining as qualifying but rather more profitable.

Morris Dancer