Canada: pre-race 2019


I was tempted by Bottas and didn’t tip him. On pace, the bet could’ve come off but ill fortune cost Bottas dear.

In Q1 it was business as usual at the back, with the Williams slowest of all once more. Russell was a second and a half behind Stroll, who starts just ahead of him on the grid (terrible day for Racing Point, with Perez also eliminated in this session, and Raikkonen between the two Pink Panthers).

Q2 was rather more eventful. The top two teams went out on the medium tyre, trying to start on it. This worked out. It didn’t work out for Verstappen, whose pace was just a tenth or two off what it needed to be, and he slipped into the red zone. Red Bull dallied a bit bringing him in for the obviously necessary red soft tyres and when he went out his pace looked good. But then Magnussen touched the wall of champions, floored his throttle, and introduced his car to the pit wall, bringing out a red flag. Verstappen was unable to complete his lap and got eliminated, as did Magnussen’s team mate Grosjean. It was better news for the McLarens, both of whom might have been at risk of departing but made it through. Verstappen should be passing plenty early on in the race.

Q3 rolled around and it looked tight between Ferrari and Mercedes. On the first run, Botta screwed up. He spun, and a combination of skill and luck kept him from damaging his car but the tyres were buggered and the lap was lost. He came in but the team were a little slow putting him out which meant he was at the back of a traffic jam. At the sharp end, Hamilton put in a tasty lap, but Vettel pipped him at the post and partied like it was 2010, two-tenths ahead. Leclerc was some way off the pace but still qualified in 3rd.

Biggest surprise of the day was Ricciardo putting the Renault all the way up in 4th. He was just eight-thousandths of a second ahead of Gasly, with whom Red Bull might be displeased. Meanwhile, Bottas’ failed first run and compromised second saw him qualify just 6th. Hulkenberg was next, two-tenths and three places off his team mate, with Norris and Sainz next up (though the Spaniard has a penalty, see below). Magnussen ‘qualified’ 10th.

Pit lane start for Magnussen (new chassis). No penalty for Leclerc due to bollard naughtiness. Sainz gets a 3 place grid penalty for clearly impeding Albon during Q1 (especially impolite after Albon had stayed well clear to let the Spaniard finish his hot lap). Norris, Verstappen, and Kvyat start 1 place higher as a result (remembering that this is in addition to starting 1 place higher for everyone outside the top 10 due to Magnussen’s pit lane start).

Weather forecast is sunny throughout the race.

Early betting thoughts:
Verstappen podium
Hamilton win

Verstappen is 4 for a podium. I expect him to pass Gasly during the race, but starting further back than the Mercedes and Ferraris will make it tricky to get past a pair of those. Probably not worth backing.

Hamilton is 2.1 for the win. To be honest, I find that pretty tempting. He’s won a lot this year and Canada is amongst his favourite hunting grounds.

According to ancient and mystical tradition, I then perused the market (once advantage of writing this later than usual is that the markets are actually up). And saw the following:
Bottas, beat Gasly, 1.4
Verstappen, group 2 winner, 2.75

Bottas starts one place behind Gasly and his compromised lap was less than a tenth slower. I’d be significantly surprised if he finishes behind Gasly. That said, 1.4 aren’t very long odds. Probably value.

Verstappen’s group includes Ricciardo, Gasly, and Hulkenberg. Verstappen’s driving brilliantly, and Ricciardo’s qualifying time was just eight-thousandths ahead of Gasly. Plus the Renaults are not brimming with reliability and the Dutchman’s team mate is likely to be politely asked to get out of the way, and Verstappen’s the only one to start on fresh tyres. 2.75, when I think he should be favourite, looks good.

Tipping Verstappen to win his group at 2.75 (a whole 2.8 with boost). Not certain, but certainly value.

The race starts at 7.10pm UK time so the post-race ramble will hopefully be up on Monday.

Morris Dancer

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