USA: pre-race 2019

Ha. Well, don’t I feel like a banana. I even backed Bottas with a £1 free bet, then thought to check his recent form at the Circuit of the Americas and decided I’d been stupid. Anyway, the 13 shot got pole. Good for him.

The penalty meant Perez wasn’t really trying too hard in the first session and left during it, as did both Williams and both Alfa Romeos.

Q2 was rather more competitive with Hulkenberg a tenth off Gasly and fastest of those eliminated. But as Perez showed last weekend, 11^th is far from the worst position. Magnussen and Kvyat followed (the Russian just a hundredth off the Dane) with Stroll and Grosjean the slowest of the departees.

In Q3 the first run saw mistakes from Vettel and Verstappen, putting them a hundredth and half a tenth behind surprise fastest chap Bottas. Leclerc was behind them, with Hamilton a lacklustre 5^th, three-tenths off his team mate. The track had been rubbering in all of qualifying, yet seemed to have hit its peak as practically nobody improved on the final run, giving the Finn a surprise pole, and making Morris Dancer look a bit daft.

The top set stayed as they were (Bottas/Vettel, Verstappen/Leclerc, Hamilton/Albon). Behind them, Sainz and Norris made the fourth row McLaren land (they’ve been looking good again) with Ricciardo and Gasly on row five.

The race is expected to be dry and sunny. Don’t forget that Perez has a pit lane start and wholly new engine parts.

My early betting thoughts were:

Perez points

Vettel lead lap 1

Verstappen win

Perez is 2.05 for points. He starts from the pit lane, so the odds may be about right or a bit tight. Either way, not very tempting.

Annoyingly, there isn’t a first lap leader market on Ladbrokes, which makes it difficult to bet on. There is one up on Betfair, but at the time of writing it’s not got going.

Verstappen is 4 to win with Ladbrokes. From 3^rd on the grid, that’s not fantastic. (If anyone backed him to win but hasn’t hedged yet, he’s 4.8 to lay on Betfair). It’s entirely possible but I’m not thrilled by the odds. Hmm.

So, the traditional perusing of the markets commenced:

Leclerc, win each way (fifth the odds top 3), 6.5/Leclerc podium, 2.5

Ferrari, most points, 2.75

Under 16.5 classified drivers, 1.95

Although Leclerc only starts 4^th on the grid it’s worth remembering he was just a tenth off pole. The main downside for him getting a podium is that his car’s been a bit iffy (engine problems, so he’s got an old one in) and the probable power deficit to Vettel might compromise him. Could still end up on the podium, though.

I’m not convinced Bottas will retain his lead, and suspect Ferrari could do well, strategy cockups notwithstanding. I think they’ve a reasonable shot of outscoring Mercedes, and 2.75 isn’t bad.

The circuit’s a good one, with opportunities to cock things up and a blind first corner, which increases the chances of things going awry. Just under evens for four or more drivers not to be classified is worth considering.

Quite a few things there that look reasonable, but nothing that leaps out (like a 13 pole shot, for example).

Weirdly, I find myself in the position of arguing for both backing and laying Verstappen. His pace in the race will be relatively better than in qualifying, and even with a mistake he was half a tenth off the fastest time. If you haven’t backed him yet, my tip is to back him at 4.33 on the enhanced win only market.

If you did (on an each way basis at 10, tipped pre-practice), you can hedge him at 4.7 on Betfair.

The race starts at 7.10pm UK time, so the post-race ramble will probably be up tomorrow, at some point.

Morris Dancer