USA: pre-qualifying 2019



It’s being suggested there’ll be a cost cap for 2021, but teams will be able to spend money in 2020 towards the 2021 car, operating under a substantially new rule set. As we’ve seen with Vettel and Hamilton, a critical head start under a new set of rules can lead to multiple title victories. Because Red Bull have lagged currently and haven’t been in a genuine title fight for years, I suspect they’ll shift more resources than their rivals into the 2021 car and it might be an advantage for them and Verstappen. Ferrari/Mercedes could be distracted by contending for the 2020 title.

Pre-practice I backed/tipped Verstappen at 10, each way (fifth the odds top 3), on the basis that was just too long given his unexpected performance at Mexico a week ago. Of course, that might have been due to the altitude, so we’ll see.

Verstappen topped first practice. He was a tenth and a half ahead of Vettel, with Albon third. Gasly was seven-tenths behind, followed by Ricciardo and Grosjean. Leclerc and Hamilton were next, Stroll and Magnussen rounding out the top 10. Bit of a weird top half (Bottas was seventeenth), so perhaps not reflective of actual pace. The track is apparently very bumpy, which could increase the chances of collisions and safety cars (and qualifying screw ups).

Second practice was tight at the top. Hamilton was fastest, with Leclerc and Verstappen three-tenths behind but separated from one another by just a hundredth. Vettel, Bottas, and Albon followed, so perhaps it will be a three-way battle come race day. Gasly and Sainz were best of the rest, followed by Stroll and Giovinazzi.

Verstappen was the fastest in third practice, two-tenths ahead of Vettel, with Norris, oddly, three-tenths further back. Bottas was ahead of Hamilton by a tiny margin, but I find it hard to believe the Mercedes will be half a second off the Red Bull come qualifying. Albon was next, less than a tenth off the Silver Arrows. Sainz, Raikkonen, Gasly, and Ricciardo rounded out the top 10.

Perez will be starting from the pit lane, and his team has taken the opportunity to install a new engine, turbocharger, and MGU-K/H. May be worth a look for points. In third practice, Leclerc stopped due to engine problems. Could be a problem for the Prancing Horse.

At the moment, my betting thoughts are drifting to Vettel/Bottas for pole, but we’ll see how the odds look.

Bottas is 13, and Vettel 3.1, with each way being just a third the odds top 2. I find that quite tricky. Hamilton’s 3.4, Verstappen 4.5, and Leclerc is favourite at 2.87, but his engine may be a bit iffy. That’s a very difficult call. I’m tempted by Bottas just because his odds are so out of kilter. Checking the last couple of races, Bottas has been four-tenths off Hamilton come qualifying, so I don’t think I’ll back him. The others are just too close to call, so no tip.

Incidentally, anyone who backed my early tip on Verstappen at 10 for the win (each way, fifth the odds top 3) can lay on Betfair around 5.

Because qualifying’s on late (9pm UK time) and I have an unusually busy Sunday there’s a chance I won’t be able to write a pre-race ramble. Obviously I hope that’s not the case, but thought I’d mention it (when online people vanish you can never be sure if they’re busy or languishing in Turkish prison). The race, incidentally, starts at 7.10pm.

Morris Dancer

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