USA: post-race analysis 2019

Quite a good race, with some excitement at the end, but the main reason it’ll be remembered is that it was the scene of Hamilton’s sixth title triumph. On the betting front, the blog bet did not come off (although if you followed the earlier tip that did).

Before the race began Red Bull replaced Verstappen’s rear wing after noticing, on the out lap, that it had a fracture.

Off the line the right hand (odd) side had good starts. By coincidence or not, this meant the Ferraris had poor starts, with Verstappen passing Vettel immediately. At the first corner Albon and Sainz came together, necessitating a first lap pit stop (the first of three, I think) for the Thai. Vettel was bizarrely slow and got passed by his team mate, and then Hamilton, with seemingly little effort. He then fell prey to Norris and Ricciardo, complaining on the radio of his car understeering like crazy, which was especially strange because he did not appear to have had any contact with anyone.

The top three rapidly started to pull away from Leclerc, who was lapping a second a lap slower than them. Vettel’s day then went from bad to worst when the vibrations of a harsh kerb destroyed his suspension. He parked thoughtfully close to a marshal’s station, so his car could be recovered without requiring either a full or virtual safety car.

Meanwhile, Verstappen’s medium tyre wear was inferior to the Mercedes. He slowly fell back from Bottas and into the grip of Hamilton. The Red Bull was first to pit for the hard tyre, followed the next lap by Bottas. Shrewd from Mercedes as their chap was just ahead of Verstappen leaving the pits but soon stretched that gap. The Red Bull, whilst faster than the Ferrari by a wide margin, seemed to lack the edge to take the fight to the Mercedes.

Hamilton, some laps later, was instructed to enter the pits. He deemed this optional and stayed out, whereupon Bottas (on fresh tyres) passed him with little effort. The Briton duly pitted for hard tyres. He would not pit again.

On track he was behind Bottas and Verstappen but believed both would have to stop again. And so they did, the order switching so he led with Bottas behind and then Verstappen. Hamilton was driving very well, and traffic was buggering Bottas’ hopes and the tyre advantage he had. Eventually the Finn drew near and the Briton defended robustly, forcing his team mate to back off. But whilst Hamilton’s talent remained undimmed his tyres were degraded and he was unable to keep Bottas behind him, the Finn surging forward to claim a victory, leaving a grander prize for his team mate.

Verstappen suddenly discovered some pace in his Red Bull (which may have been nursing a broken front wing). He drew near Hamilton and seemed to have the edge, but Magnussen binned his Haas into a gravel trap, and the double waved yellows aided Hamilton’s stalwart defence. The Dutchman ran out of laps and had to make do with last place on the podium.

Leclerc was a lonely 4^th. Even without the weird issues that plagued Vettel’s horrendous race, the Ferrari was strangely slow. This No Man’s Land position did enable him to pit late for softs and achieve the fastest lap (ironically), but the Ferrari has gone from all-conquering to also-ran very quickly.

Albon was next, which is pretty damned good considering he was forced into a first lap pit stop and had one more than Leclerc, but finished just 26s behind him.

Ricciardo was 6^th, making a one stop work for Renault once more. A tasty drive, and he ended up winning his race-long duel with Norris, who two-stopped, by four-tenths of a second. Not a bad driver, young Norris (this was his last race as a teenager). He finished ahead of Sainz, although the Spaniard’s race was made more difficult by the first lap collision with Albon.

Hulkenberg was next up. He started, I think, on the hard tyre, but it didn’t work for him as he may’ve wished. Still, double points are handy for Renault in the Constructors’ competition.

Perez had a good race, advancing from the pit lane to take the final points position. Raikkonen and Kvyat were the fastest chaps to miss out on points. Particularly good from the fortysomething Finn who started way back in 17^th.

In addition to Magnussen and Vettel the only other DNF was Kubica, whose car was retired in the garage.

So, Hamilton is king of the F1 castle once again. Hard to deny he’s one of the best the sport has ever seen, but we’ll need to see how many he racks up before trying to assess his whole career. At the moment, I’m content with my bet at 9 on him to exceed Schumacher’s win total (he needs 92 and is on 84).

Drivers:

Hamilton 381

Bottas 314

Leclerc 249

Verstappen 235

Vettel 230

The top two are nailed on, but the battle for best of the rest, with just two races left, is quite tight, especially as the Ferrari has recently decided being fast is no longer fashionable.

Constructors:

Mercedes 695

Ferrari 479

Red Bull 366

McLaren 121

Renault 83

Racing Point 65

Toro Rosso 64

Alfa Romeo 35

Haas 28

Williams 1

With just two races to go, the only fight still in the balance is probably Racing Point against Toro Rosso. Today Kvyat (so I read on Twitter) was actually ahead of Perez on track but got penalised for shenanigans. And that’s why Racing Point is ahead of Toro Rosso instead of vice versa. [There seems to be some numerical wonkiness. The numbers above are from the official F1 site but I think they might have gotten Kvyat/Perez’s points a bit confused on the drivers’ front… suffice to say any penalty was still advantageous to Racing Point].

My bet failed, from the blog anyway. The early tip and the hedge worked. I do feel a bit irked to have spotted the Bottas 13 for pole bet and then decided against it, but it’s easier betting with hindsight. A red weekend, but not horrendously awful.

Of the many football bets made with tiny stakes here and on PB, I had a red Saturday and green Sunday, being moderately green overall. I quite like this approach of numerous tiny bets.

The next race is in a fortnight, in Brazil, which might just be my favourite circuit.

Morris Dancer