Monaco: pre-race 2017
Well, I said Hamilton’s
odds were too short and Raikkonen’s/Bottas’ too long but I didn’t
expect qualifying to be quite so dramatic.
There had been whispers
that the Red Bulls might actually be dark horses, and in the first
session Verstappen was fastest, narrowly ahead of both Ferraris.
Force India worked very hard to get Ocon’s car ready in time, but,
alas, it wasn’t to be. He was the fastest man to depart Q1, ahead
of Palmer, Stroll and the two Saubers.
Q2 was far more
dramatic. Hamilton was really struggling for pace, had traffic,
rescued a squirm that threatened to plunge his car into the barriers
and went into the pits. He came out, hit traffic, backed off and was
probably going to edge (and only edge) into Q3 when Vandoorne crashed
and Hamilton’s lap was over. Joining the Briton were Kvyat,
Hulkenberg, Magnussen and Massa.
The third session of
qualifying was very tight. The Red Bulls suddenly lost pace, and the
tussle for the top time was between the Ferraris and Bottas. It was
immensely close, with under half a tenth of a second covering the top
3, but Raikkonen partied like it was 2008 (when he got his last pole,
at the French Grand Prix), just ahead of Vettel. Bottas had to make
do with starting on the second row.
Then come Verstappen
and Ricciardo. Sainz qualified in a great 6th, ahead of
Grosjean (who spun twice in qualifying but recovered very well), then
Perez, Button and Vandoorne filled out the top 10.
However, Button has a
15 place grid penalty for power unit changes and I think Vandoorne
has a 3 place grid penalty for hitting the barriers.
So, a nightmare for
Hamilton, a dream for Raikkonen, a pretty good day for Vettel and
Bottas, and opportunity missed for Red Bull, who really looked like
they could challenge for pole in Q1 and Q2 but fell away when the
matter was decided.
I’ve already tipped
No Safety Car at 6.5, so I’ll only offer another tip (or tips) if
something leaps out at me.
My initial thoughts
were:
Red Bull top score
Ocon points
Verstappen podium
Hamilton not to be
classified
Bottas win
Red Bull to top score
would be a pretty interesting bet, but even at 5.50pm it wasn’t up.
Ocon is 2.75 for
points. Given he starts 16th on a circuit where overtaking
is very difficult, this is tight. There’s only going to be a single
pit stop, and he is unlikely to make up that much.
Verstappen is 2.4 for a
podium. Bit mean, was hoping for 3 or so. He’s been very quick,
only losing pace due to some sort of tyre problem in Q3 (could’ve
been on the front row). Against that is his record of crashing at
this circuit, and the slightly ropey reliability of the Red Bull.
Hamilton, as expected,
is 6 not to be classified. My thinking is only that he starts in the
middle of the pack on the tightest circuit of the year, so if he’s
going to get a knock, it’ll be here.
Bottas is 11 to win.
The advantages he has are being very quick off the line, and being
first in the queue if Ferrari cock things up. Against this is that
the Mercedes has been struggling a bit with the tyres. That shouldn’t
lose him places but could put him off the pace at a critical time. As
we know, passing on-track is very difficult. This is eminently
possible but requires a good start and/or some good luck. Hmm. His
Betfair price is 16, however. That’s rather more tempting,
especially with a hedge.
Of those bets, only
Bottas to win seems tempting. However, there’s only £10 of
liquidity, so it’s not something I can tip.
Therefore, just the one
tip: No Safety Car, 6.5, Ladbrokes
In other news, the
second episode in my new serial, Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger,
has come out. If you haven’t checked out the first (which is free)
please do so as every download helps, and if you like it you can get
the rest. The series’ page is here:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0725XSTK7
Secondly, I was
thinking that guest blogs might be a good idea. These could be on a
range of sporting matters, or non-sporting events. The only proviso
I’d have is that they aren’t political, as that’s better suited
for politicalbetting.com. If anyone wanted to write on F1, that would
be entirely ok (although I should stress I’m still going to be
writing my race weekend articles). So, if you’re interested, give
me a bell via Vanilla and we’ll work something out.
Morris Dancer
Vettel won here in a straight fight here the year before last and I fancy him for the win. Would still be in front EW but I'm not feeling the need so far. Let's see.
ReplyDeleteOcon has gone longer since practice after not doing particularly well. I was going to go for him top 6 but I'm now taking the Points instead.
Neither Ricciardo or Verstappen have both finished together more than once this season and why should that change? At least one of them is destined to stop on the way around and if I bet on both I'm still slightly ahead if one stops - fully quids in if both don't make it.
Going for the No Safety Car too.
I have an interest in golf and cricket. If I find the time to scribble something down would you please at least consider my ramblings?
The Ricciardo/Verstappen bet is an interesting one. I think there's a 60% rate of one DNF per race (reliability), and obviously there's the possibility of clunking the wall.
ReplyDeleteMr. M, sure :)