Spain: pre-qualifying 2017

As is usual, the first European race of the year sees oodles of upgrades. Annoyingly for those of us who enjoy variety of winners, Mercedes seem to have taken a big step. Red Bull have also narrowed the gap to the front. So, the order may be shuffled a little.

This race sees the three hardest compounds available for the first time this year (soft, medium and hard). Early forecasts indicate that showers or even thunderstorms are possible for qualifying and the race is likely dry.

In P1 Hamilton was fastest, but not even half a tenth ahead of Bottas. Raikkonen was next, but nearly a second down the road, with Vettel a tenth back. Verstappen was just a tenth off Vettel, followed by Ricciardo, Magnussen, Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Sainz.

Same two chaps at the top in P2 and the gap remained under a tenth. The gap to Raikkonen was just over two-tenths, with Vettel again a tenth off his team mate. Verstappen was a couple of tenths back, Ricciardo close behind, with Hulkenberg, Palmer, Massa and Sainz rounding out the top 10.

At this stage, Mercedes seem to have the advantage, although the size of it is open to question. Red Bull are looking a lot racier and McLaren remain unreliable (Alonso’s car did a total of three corners in first practice).

P3 was quite different. Raikkonen was fastest, a quarter-second ahead of Vettel, who was a tenth up on Hamilton. Bottas had limited running due to an engine problem, and was a few tenths down on his team mate. Verstappen and Ricciardo were next, with Hulkenberg, Massa, Sainz and Alonso (who had a surprisingly problem-free session) rounded out the top 10.

The weather forecast has changed from showers/storms to sunny, for qualifying. Race still predicted to be dry too.

Quite hard to call qualifying. But then I saw some odds that just looked wrong.

Raikkonen is 9.6 to win qualifying on Betfair. I’ve backed that, and set up a hedge at 3.

He’s been faster than Vettel all weekend, and Bottas had limited running in third practice, plus the Ferrari Finn was fastest in the final session. I still believe Hamilton is favourite but Raikkonen should, I think, be second favourite, not fourth.

Anyway, I think the odds are far too long, should be 3 or 4, I think.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the much-lauded ‘turning up the engine’ works for Mercedes in qualifying. It didn’t last race. If it does this time, we can write off Russia as a one-off. If it doesn’t, we might be able to say that the Mercedes qualifying advantage has gone.

Morris Dancer