Monaco: pre-qualifying 2017

Ah, Monaco. King of processions. However, last year there was a very good tip from Mr. Sandpit which only failed to come off due to bad luck. At 8, he suggested backing No Safety Car. It emerged but only due to rain at the start. After that there were four VSC periods but no new safety car. So, I’ve backed No Safety Car at 6.5 (weather forecast is sunny all weekend).

My feeling heading into this was that the Ferrari would have the whip hand. This was based on Spain, where pace was broadly similar but the Mercedes had a clear edge on the straight (therefore the Prancing Horse must have had an advantage in the twisty bits).

We should also note that Alonso is off in Indyland, and Button has returned, for a one-off appearance, to the McLaren team.

One-stop is eminently likely, because position is critical.

In first practice, Hamilton was fastest, two-tenths up on Vettel, who was closely followed by Verstappen, Bottas and Ricciardo. Kvyat was next, then Raikkonen, half a second down on his team mate, with Perez, Sainz and Ocon rounding out the top 10.

In second practice, Vettel was half a second ahead of Ricciardo. Raikkonen, Kvyat, Sainz and Verstappen followed closely, then came Perez, Hamilton, Magnussen and Bottas.

It looked very good for Ferrari, but it’s worth noting that Mercedes didn’t really show their hand. Nevertheless, there are some who believe Red Bull might be ahead of Mercedes. That would be interesting.

Button has a 15 place grid penalty due to power unit changes.

In third practice, Vettel was in a league of his own, over a third of a second ahead of Raikkonen, who was a tenth up on Bottas. Verstappen was next, three-tenths ahead of Hamilton, who hasn’t looked so sharp recently. Ricciardo was next, followed very closely by Sainz, with Kvyat and Magnussen close behind, with Vandoorne rounding out the top 10.

After practice finished, Ricciardo had a brake by wire problem. I guess it’ll be ok for qualifying but if you’re thinking of betting on him, keep an eye on that. Red Bull has had slightly wonky reliability this season.

I agree with the market consensus that Vettel’s very much odds on for pole. But I think the odds around Hamilton are too short, and Raikkonen too long. Bottas might also be of interest. The problem is Red Bull. They could well be in the mix, and that makes it hard to pick who will be fastest after Vettel (and maybe Raikkonen).

Also worth knowing that the ultra-soft will effectively do a full race distance, so expect long early stints as teams try not to get caught out by a safety car or VSC.

Anyway, I’ve decided not to bet on qualifying. Vettel is very likely to get pole but if something goes wrong it’s hard to predict who’ll get it instead.

I have backed No Safety Car at 6.5, as mentioned above, which is an early race tip. (When the market comes back the odds might have changed. I’d probably take 5.5 or higher).

Two other things to note, and I’ll add these at the end of the other articles this race weekend. Firstly, the second episode in my new serial, Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger, has come out. If you haven’t checked out the first (which is free) please do so as every download helps, and if you like it you can get the rest. The series’ page is here.

Secondly, I was thinking that guest blogs might be a good idea. These could be on a range of sporting matters, or non-sporting events. The only proviso I’d have is that they aren’t political, as that’s better suited for politicalbetting.com. If anyone wanted to write on F1, that would be entirely ok (although I should stress I’m still going to be writing my race weekend articles). So, if you’re interested, give me a bell via Vanilla and we’ll work something out.

Morris Dancer