Monaco: pre-race 2017

Well, I said Hamilton’s odds were too short and Raikkonen’s/Bottas’ too long but I didn’t expect qualifying to be quite so dramatic.

There had been whispers that the Red Bulls might actually be dark horses, and in the first session Verstappen was fastest, narrowly ahead of both Ferraris. Force India worked very hard to get Ocon’s car ready in time, but, alas, it wasn’t to be. He was the fastest man to depart Q1, ahead of Palmer, Stroll and the two Saubers.

Q2 was far more dramatic. Hamilton was really struggling for pace, had traffic, rescued a squirm that threatened to plunge his car into the barriers and went into the pits. He came out, hit traffic, backed off and was probably going to edge (and only edge) into Q3 when Vandoorne crashed and Hamilton’s lap was over. Joining the Briton were Kvyat, Hulkenberg, Magnussen and Massa.

The third session of qualifying was very tight. The Red Bulls suddenly lost pace, and the tussle for the top time was between the Ferraris and Bottas. It was immensely close, with under half a tenth of a second covering the top 3, but Raikkonen partied like it was 2008 (when he got his last pole, at the French Grand Prix), just ahead of Vettel. Bottas had to make do with starting on the second row.

Then come Verstappen and Ricciardo. Sainz qualified in a great 6^th, ahead of Grosjean (who spun twice in qualifying but recovered very well), then Perez, Button and Vandoorne filled out the top 10.

However, Button has a 15 place grid penalty for power unit changes and I think Vandoorne has a 3 place grid penalty for hitting the barriers.

So, a nightmare for Hamilton, a dream for Raikkonen, a pretty good day for Vettel and Bottas, and opportunity missed for Red Bull, who really looked like they could challenge for pole in Q1 and Q2 but fell away when the matter was decided.

I’ve already tipped No Safety Car at 6.5, so I’ll only offer another tip (or tips) if something leaps out at me.

My initial thoughts were:

Red Bull top score

Ocon points

Verstappen podium

Hamilton not to be classified

Bottas win

Red Bull to top score would be a pretty interesting bet, but even at 5.50pm it wasn’t up.

Ocon is 2.75 for points. Given he starts 16^th on a circuit where overtaking is very difficult, this is tight. There’s only going to be a single pit stop, and he is unlikely to make up that much.

Verstappen is 2.4 for a podium. Bit mean, was hoping for 3 or so. He’s been very quick, only losing pace due to some sort of tyre problem in Q3 (could’ve been on the front row). Against that is his record of crashing at this circuit, and the slightly ropey reliability of the Red Bull.

Hamilton, as expected, is 6 not to be classified. My thinking is only that he starts in the middle of the pack on the tightest circuit of the year, so if he’s going to get a knock, it’ll be here.

Bottas is 11 to win. The advantages he has are being very quick off the line, and being first in the queue if Ferrari cock things up. Against this is that the Mercedes has been struggling a bit with the tyres. That shouldn’t lose him places but could put him off the pace at a critical time. As we know, passing on-track is very difficult. This is eminently possible but requires a good start and/or some good luck. Hmm. His Betfair price is 16, however. That’s rather more tempting, especially with a hedge.

Of those bets, only Bottas to win seems tempting. However, there’s only £10 of liquidity, so it’s not something I can tip.

Therefore, just the one tip: No Safety Car, 6.5, Ladbrokes

In other news, the second episode in my new serial, Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger, has come out. If you haven’t checked out the first (which is free) please do so as every download helps, and if you like it you can get the rest. The series’ page is here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0725XSTK7

Secondly, I was thinking that guest blogs might be a good idea. These could be on a range of sporting matters, or non-sporting events. The only proviso I’d have is that they aren’t political, as that’s better suited for politicalbetting.com. If anyone wanted to write on F1, that would be entirely ok (although I should stress I’m still going to be writing my race weekend articles). So, if you’re interested, give me a bell via Vanilla and we’ll work something out.

Morris Dancer