Australia: pre-race 2017
What a difference a day
makes. I listened to qualifying on the radio and was quite intrigued.
Before I get to what happened in qualifying, some things occurred
beforehand worth mentioning.
In third practice
Stroll continued his mission to take on the mantle of Maldonado by crashing once again. This
meant the team had to race to get his Williams ready in time (they
succeeded) but also that the gearbox needed changing which incurs a
five place grid penalty.
A more surprising turn
of events was that Wehrlein deciding not to race.
You may recall he had a substantial crash before the first pre-season
test (which meant he couldn’t attend it). His neck is fine in terms
of injury, his concern is that six weeks lost from the gym meant he
wouldn’t be in shape. Seems a bit odd given he was fine for testing
and to practice yesterday. Anyway, this means that Ferrari’s third
driver, Antonio Giovinazzi, leaps into the hot seat. It’s nice to
see an Italian back racing in F1.
In the first session of
qualifying, every driver to drop out came from a different team. At
the bottom was Palmer, who ended up over 3s behind Hulkenberg. Whilst
I do think the German has a clear edge, that margin suggests a car
issue. Stroll was 19th, although he’ll be at the back
due to the gearbox change. Then we have Vandoorne and Magnussen, both
a long way off their team mates, and Giovinazzi in 16th,
the fastest man eliminated (worth noting he may have been fast enough
to proceed, but for fluffing his last lap).
The second session had
three team leaders as the fastest chaps out (Perez, Hulkenberg and
Alonso). Ocon is 14th, but he was half a second off Perez,
and Ericsson was last, which is probably a pretty solid indicator of
where Sauber is.
Throughout these
sessions Mercedes had looked to have an edge (Hamilton, at least)
over Ferrari. Could the gap be closed?
Yes and no. Hamilton
did get pole by just under three-tenths (I recall contemplating the
1.9 on a three-tenths or more gap then dismissing it. About 3 was
available for the actual gap). But Vettel was 2nd, a few
hundredths ahead of Bottas, who was half a second ahead of Raikkonen.
Red Bull seem to be in
a clear third place in pace terms. However, Ricciardo cocked up in Q3
and crashed, so he starts 10th (assuming there’s no
penalty for changing a gearbox or suchlike). Verstappen duly got 5th,
but, perhaps surprisingly, Grosjean was the chap who grabbed 6th
for Haas, four-tenths ahead of Massa. Not bad considering Magnussen,
Grosjean’s new team mate, is starting 17th.
Very close behind Massa
were the Toro Rosso pairing of Sainz and Kvyat. Whilst many teams
seem to have one driver a mile faster than the others, these two seem
pretty close (Sainz with a slight edge).
So, there we are. A
very intriguing grid for a potentially tasty first race. It seems a
two horse contest at the front, with Red Bull a clear third, then
quite some gap but a competitive midfield.
On the long runs
yesterday, before Ferrari sorted themselves out, the Silver Arrows
looked faster than the Prancing Horse. However, if the habit of
recent years whereby Mercedes turn up the wick for qualifying is
true, then maybe Ferrari is the team to beat on race pace.
Just looking at the
grid, considering the start and the probable dry race and single
stop, the bets that first leapt to mind were:
Toro Rosso, double
points finish
Ricciardo, top 6
Hulkenberg, points
Pretty tempted by Toro
Rosso at 2.5 for a double points finish. The two drivers are quick,
the car looks good. Odds could be tastier, perhaps.
Ricciardo is 1.66 to be
top 6. Now, I do think the Red Bull is significantly faster than all
save Ferrari and Mercedes, but if there’s a lap 1 pile-up, starting
10th (possibly lower, contingent on gearbox) means he
could well be in the middle of it. He also has to make that up on
track, most likely, as a single stop is expected per team, limiting
the scope for strategic shenanigans. Bit short to tempt, even though
it’s entirely possible.
Hulkenberg is 1.61 for
points. Although I rate him highly and the Renault seems pretty good,
the odds are a bit too short. The usually high attrition rate in Oz
does mean he could get there simply by finishing, but that high
retirement rate also means he might not finish himself.
Idle browsing revealed
some other potential bets:
Vettel, lead lap 1,
3.25
Vettel, win (each
way?), 4.33
Ferrari, double podium,
2.87
Ferrari, Constructors’,
5
Hamilton was a bit
rubbish at starting last year. If this persists, and (I forget the
reasons why, but did mention it in an earlier article) starting is
harder for everyone this season, he may well screw up the start.
Vettel’s first in line to benefit (in fact, all three drivers
immediately behind Hamilton regularly had flying starts in 2016).
However, with the new start rules and short odds, I’m going to give
this a miss.
Vettel to win each way
looks more promising. If he leads lap 1 then he’ll be favourite for
the race, but the odds are longer. Each way is a third the odds (just
over evens) for him to be top 2. I quite like the look of this, the
downside being it’s very tight between the top four and a starting
cock-up could sink it. Hmm.
The Mercedes and
Ferraris are a bit faster than Red Bull and those three are a day and
a half ahead of the midfield. The odds are the podium will be three
of the Silver Arrows/Prancing Horse drivers. Raikkonen and Bottas
have a bit of previous, you may recall. I think 2.87 may be value,
though it’s tight.
The Constructors’
surprises me. With a grid mixed between the two top teams, it would
seem the Constructors’ is a two-horse race, yet one is 1.25 and the
other (Ferrari) is 5. I may be jumping the gun, but it looks to me
like that figure is too influenced by last season. Vettel and
Raikkonen are a very solid pairing.
Apologies for the
length, again, but there’s quite a lot to contemplate.
Looking at the race
bets and considering the two tips already offered (I’m slightly
regretting the No Safety Car bet, but feeling more confident of there
being 15 or fewer classified finishers), of the above, the most
appealing race bet is Vettel to win at 4.33, each way. An alternative
is to back on Betfair at 5.1, and set up a hedge at evens.
In the end, I opted for
the following, which is today’s tip:
Vettel, win each way,
4.33 (Ladbrokes, each way = third the odds for top 2)
The race begins at 6am
UK time, but don’t forget that the clocks go forward tonight.
Morris Dancer
Morris, I understand your logic in going for this bet, but I'm not enthused by the odds on offer, especially as it would seem very likely that you will lose the win element of this so-called each way bet (which includes only the second placed driver) should Lewis Hamilton win as expected.
ReplyDeleteIn such circumstances your net reward would barely result in your recovering your stake, with a net return of just 5.5% .... hardly an attractive proposition.
Instead, I've opted for a left field bet, a relative outsider in fact, backing Daniel Ricciardo to finish in the first 3, i.e. a proper place, at decimal odds of 7.0, available from various bookies.
Whilst he is placed 6th of the 6 principal contenders, i.e. those with any chance at all of winning, I expect him to do considerably better than this indicative position at what is effectively his home GP. Also, especially at this start of the new F1 season, it's likely that there will be a relatively higher rate of attrition and it wouldn't be too surprising therefore to see one of the more fancied drivers failing to finish.
Mr. Putney,
ReplyDeleteI may have egg on my face saying this, but I'm not convinced that's good value. Ricciardo's in the clear third fastest car, and it's a lot better than all save the top two, but they start 1-4 and his team mate is 5th. If he starts badly or gets caught in trouble (and his grid position makes that far more likely), it's over.
I agree on the general attrition point. However, the top 3 teams have all been very solid in this regard (and the weakest of them is the Red Bull).
Anyway, let us hope Vettel wins and Ricciardo is third.
Morris Dancer
Your tip is dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez.
ReplyDeleteThat needed saying as it makes your comment on PB a self-fulfilling prophesy *grin*
Anyway. Bottas to win, each way. He's always had the measure of Hamilton on this track. I'm all over 9-1
Magnussen for points. He's been on the podium here before and I think he's better than that start.
Raikkonen was fastest in testing and so I'm going to have a sniff at 9/1 fastest lap.
And a bit of Vettell to Finish ahead of Hamilton too, just to round off my ideas.
So it's a 6am UK time start, plus an hour for my timezone, plus an hour for DST. I need a calculator to work out when the damn thing kicks off.
Mr. M, interesting view on Bottas. You'll look damned clever if it comes off.
ReplyDeleteI'm unpersuaded by Magnussen. He was on the podium years ago in a better car. The Haas is the fourth fastest, at best. Attrition might help the Dane but on pace the likes of Massa, Perez, Hulkenberg, Alonso will be ahead of him, not to mention his team mate.
The Raikkonen fastest lap bet might be tasty. He had quite a few last year. Hmmm. May put a pound or two on that.