Thoughts on the first pre-season test

There are just two tests ahead of the 2017 F1 season. The first has just finished, the second runs from 7-10 March.

I would strongly caution against paying attention to headline times. Back in 2009, with Bridgestone tyres and small fuel tanks, there was far less variability. In the modern era, with crumbly Pirellis (more on those later), massive fuel tanks and many engine modes, it’s very easy to sandbag.

However, mood music can be somewhat useful, and reliability can be assessed to at least some degree.

McLaren had a torrid first two days. Both Alonso and Vandoorne suffered engine failures which severely curtailed their running, though both got more time on the track in the latter half of the test. Even leaving aside the engine issues, there is a concern the car might be a bit slow. Australia, the first race, has historically been one at which the team has punched above its weight.

Mercedes, by contrast, had a very good test, laying down more laps than anyone else. The only reliability failure (Hamilton’s car, the day after Rosberg visited... [some are are suggesting that as a conspiracy theory. Don’t be silly]) was an electrical fault that was investigated early on the final day, which prevented Hamilton taking to the track. They’re looking very strong.

Ferrari also had very good reliability, with just a single failing, and a large number of laps put down. Hard to assess pace, but it’s looking better than expected for the Prancing Horse.

Red Bull had a couple of reliability failures but no catastrophes. Over the four days the murmuring seems a little bit less confident, perhaps, than I’d expected. Maybe I’m reading too much into it.

Of the other teams, Force India and Renault initially put down slightly fewer laps than I’d expected. Haas seemed more solid than I would’ve guessed. Lance Stroll, the new Williams driver, had a few offs, the last of which prevented Massa getting any running done on the final day. Maldonado comparisons have been drawn. Sauber are looking a bit better (and not just the livery).

Now, pre-test, my assumption had been that Mercedes would be dominant, with Red Bull the only genuine rival at certain races, with the rest bickering over third. That’s still possible, but I’d feel a bit more confident if I were Ferrari, and perhaps a bit less if I were Red Bull. But, as I said, don’t take the times too seriously.

Overtaking has seen some contrary murmurings. A few drivers have said they were able to run closely fairly easily, but Hamilton found the traffic more difficult. This may simple be a matter of the car itself, with the Mercedes historically ropey in traffic. At some circuits (those impossible like Monaco, and easy like Canada) this will make less difference, but at a circuit like Hungary it could make a significant difference, assuming the Mercedes aren’t just at the front.

The tyres seem more durable, and when they do go off they can be brought back. We’ll have to wait and see if this means we get one-stoppers throughout, and how easy/hard overtaking is.

Early thoughts on Australia (these aren’t tips, more of a note-to-self to check come the time) revolve around lack of reliability. The market would be Not To Be Classified, looking at the McLarens, and Stroll. Also, considering a Safety Car appearance (although the VSC does reduce the chances of that).

On the title, really need to see how the first race weekend goes, but if somebody forced a tenner upon me on condition I backed a driver, the chap likeliest to get it is Hamilton.

Morris Dancer