Testing times, part two

It must be said, testing has proved rather more interesting than it might have done. I should reiterate that the times must be taken with a boulder of salt, but the mood music can be a more reliable guide.

Before we get to potential pace, let’s examine the various gremlin infestations.

McLaren is the worst. This is down to the Honda engine, which, as well as being under-powered, seems to quite like going on strike. I’ll be checking the Not To Be Classified market for Australia, but I think the odds may be very short. Speaking of strikes, a Honda engineer, Gilles Simon, has left Honda, reportedly because he felt his ideas on the engine were not being implemented.

With intra-season development now possible, Honda could recover. But even if they did so and made an engine equal to the fastest, they would have lost so much ground it’s hard to see them in the mix this year.

Renault and Force India have both had some problems too. However, Renault sound confident they can fix things for Oz. Force India are also confident of mending the problems but think it’ll take a bit of time, so we could see a fairly rapid improvement in pace/reliability for Force India over the first few races.

Red Bull has had some reliability woe, largely on the turbo/MGU-K elements of the engine. An F1 car can run without all/part of the ERS system but it will cost seconds per laps, as well as buggering up the brake balance (kinetic energy from the brakes is recycled into horsepower).

Ferrari have also hit a few snags in the second test. I’d say more than Mercedes but fewer than Red Bull.

Haas is looking for a brake improvement (still having problems from last year), and has had a few wonky moments.

Meanwhile, Williams and Mercedes are looking pretty solid. Not sure I can remember much Sauber woe, either. Toro Rosso have had one or two problems but nothing too major, I think.

Now, onto pace. As mentioned previously, this is half-guesswork, half-Mystic Meg mumbo-jumbo. I’m focusing on mood music rather than times.

Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull seem quite similar. Right now, I think the first two are very close to one another (Mr. B’s bet on Ferrari for the Constructors’ title may be looking good, my each way on Bottas for the title looking a little ropey). My feeling is Red Bull are a small margin back but will be the team to beat at high downforce circuits (whilst being murdered at Monza).

Behind them, it could be pretty tasty between Williams, Renault and Force India. Haas might be up there, not sure. Toro Rosso are a bit difficult to tell, but Sainz is impressive and they had a pretty nice car (albeit underpowered) last year. The midfield could be tight indeed.

I think Sauber will score a few more points than last year, but I’m rather worried for McLaren. Right now they look like the slowest team on the grid.

If my vague musings are accurate, we could see things competitive at both the sharp end and in the midfield. However, a word of warning. Mercedes are the champion sandbaggers. Both they and other teams will probably have hidden some true pace. We’ll only know for sure when Australia’s done and dusted.

So, bets I will have an eye on for Australia (NB these are only things I’ll check/consider, not tips at this stage):

Alonso/Vandoorne, not to be classified

Ferrari, top score

Safety Car (due to possibility of some cars breaking down)

Raikkonen, podium

Hamilton, pole

There are no spread markets available yet. Although I’m not betting on them this year, I want to try and get my eye in for possible betting in 2018, so I will be offering some suggestions either in a stand-alone article or as part of the Australian race weekend articles. The first race of the year is in just over a fortnight.

It was announced today that the 1964 world champion John Surtees has died. RIP.

Morris Dancer