Italy: post-race analysis 2016
One bet came off, the
other didn’t, but short odds meant the profit for both race and
weekend was minimal. Bit frustrating as I’ve got two out of three
right and much of it proceeded as I expected, but a lack of judgement
(perhaps) with the lap 1 bet diluted any profits. Still, nice to
finish ahead, even if only by a small sum.
Off the line, it was
nearly glorious. Hamilton left the handbrake on and both Ferraris
(and Bottas) got ahead of him. Vettel nearly pipped Rosberg to the
first corner, but it wasn’t to be. Further down the grid.
Verstappen, Gutierrez and Button all fell down the order (the Briton
was forced wide on the first lap, I think).
Hamilton was bottled up
behind Bottas for quite a few laps, but eventually managed to pass
the Finn, who was driving rather well. The first pit stops were
disappointing, however. Ferrari switched both cars to new supersoft
tyres (having begun on that compound, it necessitated a second pit
stop). The Mercedes, starting on the soft, switched to medium tyres.
Why Ferrari didn’t try putting one car on medium tyres, to split
the strategy and avoid giving away track position, I don’t know.
Red Bull was behind them both on-track and on pace. But there we are.
Hamilton rose to 2nd,
behind his team mate (whom he never threatened to catch), by virtue
of the Ferraris pitting twice to his once.
It was more interesting
behind him. Bottas was on soft tyres at the end, Ricciardo the
supersoft, and a super late lunge into the first corner (and
eminently sensible driving from the Finn) meant the Aussie got ahead
without contact. Despite that, a great race for Williams, who also
had Massa finish in 9th.
Verstappen, after his
dreadful start, recovered well to 7th, and Force India
double-scored with 8th and 10th for Perez and
Hulkenberg respectively.
There was a bit of
contact later in the race between Nasr and Palmer, which led to both
retiring. The terminally unlucky Kvyat also retired, as did Wehrlein.
This unexpected victory
for Rosberg means he’s just two points behind Hamilton with seven
races left.
Constructors:
Red Bull 290
Ferrari 279
Williams 111
Force India 108
The gap between the
bulls and horses has narrowed, but I expect it to lengthen again come
Singapore. A street circuit will suit the superior downforce of the
Red Bull, I feel. Similarly, Williams has leapfrogged Force India to
regain 4th, but I think the Force India will be better
next race (and overall in the course of the remaining races).
A quick check on the
spread suggestions I offered (buying Verstappen and Bottas, selling
Magnussen and Alonso) indicate things are largely going well,
although I could do with Verstappen having some strong victories.
Believe it or not, this
is the first time I’ve had a green result since Spain. Which was in
May.
Why not celebrate this
rare and magnificent event by purchasing the excellent Explorations:Through the Wormhole anthology, featuring the story Dead Weight, by
me?
On a more serious note,
this season has been pretty lacklustre at best. The pleasing
Verstappen bet at Spain shouldn’t mask that my weekend bets have
generally been poor.
The next race is
Singapore in a fortnight. Expect Red Bull to do well, and McLaren
likewise. Williams should have a poor race. That’s the circuit
where Mercedes unexpectedly fell off a cliff last year. I don’t
think that will happen again, but we’ll see.
Morris Dancer
Correction: Hungary was the last green race.
ReplyDeleteYou and your safety cars....
ReplyDeleteProfitable, but lacking a certain glamour.
I'm always open to betting suggestions :)
ReplyDelete