Singapore: pre-race 2016

Qualifying was rather interesting. Resisting temptation proved wise, as Verstappen was nowhere near pole.

In the first session, Vettel had a serious problem, with suspension or a role bar or suchlike. The team tried to keep him out to squeeze into Q2 (there was likely insufficient time to mend it within Q1 because they’d sent him out relatively late). However, he was miles off the pace, brought the car in and ended up last. Both Renaults and both Manors exited at this stage, with Nasr also out.

The second session also had its moment(s) of high drama. At the end, when everyone was improving, Grosjean’s Haas slid like a giraffe on ice and struck a barrier. Double-waved yellows emerged, and, at the same time, Button (who appeared to have both a broken front left and a punctured rear left) left the circuit. This prevented any hope of the Williams getting up to the top 10, and Perez passed a car, going fast enough to make Q3, to the consternation of Massa. Both Williams, Button, both Haas cars and Ericsson (who did not trouble himself to set a lap time) left proceedings at this stage.

Rosberg set a stonking first lap in Q3, a full seven-tenths ahead of his team mate. Raikkonen was next, with the Red Bulls following [after the initial run]. The Red Bulls improved markedly, however, with Ricciardo out-pacing Hamilton and Verstappen doing likewise to Raikkonen. So, at a circuit where the pole-sitter wins around 75% and facing starting problems, Hamilton lines up only 3rd. Rather lovely for Rosberg, if he can get off the line well.

Sainz and Kvyat are next up, which is great for Toro Rosso and nice to see the Russian back on form. Not good for McLaren, who may be concerned about Toro Rosso getting a fistful of points. Hulkenberg, Alonso and Perez are next up.

Keep an eye on whether Perez gets a penalty for passing (and being swift) under double waved yellows. Also, the Red Bulls start on the supersoft tyre, those around them are on the ultrasofts (it’s a slightly ridiculous approach to naming,for those unaware the ultrasoft is softer than the supersoft).

The grid is intriguingly poised. There’s only a 4-5% chance of rain. Two stops seems eminently possible. A safety car is highly likely, so teams will definitely have that factored into race scenarios.

Mr. Sandpit’s 5.9 suggestion on Rosberg to win is currently looking tasty (for those who backed it, the hedge is available at evens).

My initial betting thoughts were:
Lay Vettel top 6
Verstappen podium
Ricciardo win
Red Bull top score
Sainz top 6
Bottas points

Vettel’s evens for top 6 but the lay is 3, which is pretty long. Hmm. There’s not enough money there for me to tip it, even if it’s value, though. Shame.

Verstappen is only 1.9 with Betfair for a podium, about the same with Ladbrokes.

Ricciardo is 3.5 to win (4.5 with Betfair). I think that’s pretty tempting, to be honest, given the Red Bull’s long run pace. The divergent strategy (starting on the soft) could go either way.

Red Bull are 3 to top score. That’s interesting.

Sainz is 1.9 to be top 6. Not quite enough. The five cars ahead of him are all much better on pace, and if he suffers unfortunate timing with a safety car or a slow pit stop, that’s the final top 6 spot gone.

Bottas is evens for points. Bit too short.

At this stage the Ricciardo (Betfair) and Red Bull top score bets are the most tempting, and both have some value. However, I thought it worthwhile having a quick perusal of the markets, just in case anything looked particularly appealing. There wasn’t.

So, which of the two potential bets to back. Ricciardo is a very impressive driver and has a point to prove after Monaco. If his tyre strategy isn’t a disadvantage, the Red Bull seems to have the pace to challenge Mercedes on long runs. Verstappen’s trickier to assess. He’s very skilled but does sometimes struggle at street circuits (Monaco, at least), and he has the moderately upgraded Renault engine (only worth 0.1s a lap, but if he gets ahead of Ricciardo at the start and there’s a 20 lap stint, that’s a 2s gap).

If Ricciardo wins, then Verstappen only needs 5th to guarantee outright top scoring, 6th for a potential tie (Mercedes 2-3). If Rosberg wins, the Red Bulls must be 2-3 with Hamilton 6th or lower.

On that basis, I think Ricciardo to win is the value bet.

Today’s tip: Ricciardo to win, 4.5. Hedged at evens.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. Morris is right as regards keeping things simple from a betting perspective. After all the Betfair market sees this as being a three horse race with the odds starting at 12/1 barring Rosberg, Ricciardo and Hamilton.
    Where I disagree with him is in terms of the likely winner, where I am going unashamedly for the Brit for the simple reason that he's the best driver in the best car and is available on the exchange at seemingly generous odds of 5.8.
    How long has it been I wonder, since it was possible to back Hamilton at odds of better than 9/2 net when he's started from the second row of the grid?
    One further betting thought I would add though, should Rosberg win today, as his short odds-on price suggest he will, then the 3/1 odds from BetVictor against him winning the Drivers' F1 will look way too long compared with most other bookies who are currently offering a much more modest 2/1.

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    Replies
    1. Hey Mr. Putney.

      An interesting perspective, and a bet (in retrospect) I'm a little surprised I didn't consider more. But there are reasons:
      1) Hamilton's been poor all weekend. Mistakes in qualifying are one thing, make them in the race and it's either race or over or losing places.
      2) The Red Bull race pace looks genuinely competitive and going supersoft may mean their longer initial stint enables them to pull a gap.
      3) Hamilton had hydraulic problems in practice. Apparently they're resolved, but we'll see.
      4) His starts have varied between reasonable and atrocious. If he goes backwards off the line, that's it [the Red Bulls, having a relatively harder tyre, may also go backwards but should benefit from a longer initial stint].

      The odds are pretty long, though.

      It's nice to have a race with four credible victors (maybe five if we include Raikkonen) rather than just the two.

      Morris Dancer

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