Singapore: pre-race 2016
Qualifying was rather
interesting. Resisting temptation proved wise, as Verstappen was
nowhere near pole.
In the first session,
Vettel had a serious problem, with suspension or a role bar or
suchlike. The team tried to keep him out to squeeze into Q2 (there
was likely insufficient time to mend it within Q1 because they’d
sent him out relatively late). However, he was miles off the pace,
brought the car in and ended up last. Both Renaults and both Manors
exited at this stage, with Nasr also out.
The second session also
had its moment(s) of high drama. At the end, when everyone was
improving, Grosjean’s Haas slid like a giraffe on ice and struck a
barrier. Double-waved yellows emerged, and, at the same time, Button
(who appeared to have both a broken front left and a punctured rear
left) left the circuit. This prevented any hope of the Williams
getting up to the top 10, and Perez passed a car, going fast enough
to make Q3, to the consternation of Massa. Both Williams, Button,
both Haas cars and Ericsson (who did not trouble himself to set a lap
time) left proceedings at this stage.
Rosberg set a stonking
first lap in Q3, a full seven-tenths ahead of his team mate.
Raikkonen was next, with the Red Bulls following [after the initial
run]. The Red Bulls improved markedly, however, with Ricciardo
out-pacing Hamilton and Verstappen doing likewise to Raikkonen. So,
at a circuit where the pole-sitter wins around 75% and facing
starting problems, Hamilton lines up only 3rd. Rather
lovely for Rosberg, if he can get off the line well.
Sainz and Kvyat are
next up, which is great for Toro Rosso and nice to see the Russian
back on form. Not good for McLaren, who may be concerned about Toro
Rosso getting a fistful of points. Hulkenberg, Alonso and Perez are
next up.
Keep an eye on whether
Perez gets a penalty for passing (and being swift) under double waved
yellows. Also, the Red Bulls start on the supersoft tyre, those
around them are on the ultrasofts (it’s a slightly ridiculous
approach to naming,for those unaware the ultrasoft is softer than the
supersoft).
The grid is
intriguingly poised. There’s only a 4-5% chance of rain. Two stops
seems eminently possible. A safety car is highly likely, so teams
will definitely have that factored into race scenarios.
Mr. Sandpit’s 5.9
suggestion on Rosberg to win is currently looking tasty (for those
who backed it, the hedge is available at evens).
My initial betting
thoughts were:
Lay Vettel top 6
Verstappen podium
Ricciardo win
Red Bull top score
Sainz top 6
Bottas points
Vettel’s evens for
top 6 but the lay is 3, which is pretty long. Hmm. There’s not
enough money there for me to tip it, even if it’s value, though.
Shame.
Verstappen is only 1.9
with Betfair for a podium, about the same with Ladbrokes.
Ricciardo is 3.5 to win
(4.5 with Betfair). I think that’s pretty tempting, to be honest,
given the Red Bull’s long run pace. The divergent strategy
(starting on the soft) could go either way.
Red Bull are 3 to top
score. That’s interesting.
Sainz is 1.9 to be top
6. Not quite enough. The five cars ahead of him are all much better
on pace, and if he suffers unfortunate timing with a safety car or a
slow pit stop, that’s the final top 6 spot gone.
Bottas is evens for
points. Bit too short.
At this stage the
Ricciardo (Betfair) and Red Bull top score bets are the most
tempting, and both have some value. However, I thought it worthwhile
having a quick perusal of the markets, just in case anything looked
particularly appealing. There wasn’t.
So, which of the two
potential bets to back. Ricciardo is a very impressive driver and has
a point to prove after Monaco. If his tyre strategy isn’t a
disadvantage, the Red Bull seems to have the pace to challenge
Mercedes on long runs. Verstappen’s trickier to assess. He’s very
skilled but does sometimes struggle at street circuits (Monaco, at
least), and he has the moderately upgraded Renault engine (only worth
0.1s a lap, but if he gets ahead of Ricciardo at the start and
there’s a 20 lap stint, that’s a 2s gap).
If Ricciardo wins, then
Verstappen only needs 5th to guarantee outright top
scoring, 6th for a potential tie (Mercedes 2-3). If
Rosberg wins, the Red Bulls must be 2-3 with Hamilton 6th
or lower.
On that basis, I think
Ricciardo to win is the value bet.
Today’s tip:
Ricciardo to win, 4.5. Hedged at evens.
Morris Dancer
Morris is right as regards keeping things simple from a betting perspective. After all the Betfair market sees this as being a three horse race with the odds starting at 12/1 barring Rosberg, Ricciardo and Hamilton.
ReplyDeleteWhere I disagree with him is in terms of the likely winner, where I am going unashamedly for the Brit for the simple reason that he's the best driver in the best car and is available on the exchange at seemingly generous odds of 5.8.
How long has it been I wonder, since it was possible to back Hamilton at odds of better than 9/2 net when he's started from the second row of the grid?
One further betting thought I would add though, should Rosberg win today, as his short odds-on price suggest he will, then the 3/1 odds from BetVictor against him winning the Drivers' F1 will look way too long compared with most other bookies who are currently offering a much more modest 2/1.
Hey Mr. Putney.
DeleteAn interesting perspective, and a bet (in retrospect) I'm a little surprised I didn't consider more. But there are reasons:
1) Hamilton's been poor all weekend. Mistakes in qualifying are one thing, make them in the race and it's either race or over or losing places.
2) The Red Bull race pace looks genuinely competitive and going supersoft may mean their longer initial stint enables them to pull a gap.
3) Hamilton had hydraulic problems in practice. Apparently they're resolved, but we'll see.
4) His starts have varied between reasonable and atrocious. If he goes backwards off the line, that's it [the Red Bulls, having a relatively harder tyre, may also go backwards but should benefit from a longer initial stint].
The odds are pretty long, though.
It's nice to have a race with four credible victors (maybe five if we include Raikkonen) rather than just the two.
Morris Dancer