Italy: pre-qualifying 2016
Felipe Massa has
announced he is retiring at the end of the season. Speculation had
been rife about him going, whether of his own accord or due to being
replaced by Williams. I think the stand-out moments from his career
(the horrendous 2009 accident aside) will be Rob Smedley’s comedy
radio transmission at the 2009 Malaysian Grand Prix [Felipe, baby,
stay cool!] and the great dignity with which he acted when he lost
the 2008 title to Hamilton by the narrowest possible margin. He’s a
very likeable chap, according to all accounts, but all things must
end.
Button and Perez are
those I’ve seen most commonly mentioned in the running for his
seat, although it’s worth noting Bottas isn’t guaranteed to stay
either. [During third practice commentary a Force India chap said Perez was under contract for them for 2017].
Monza, the circuit at
which we are this weekend, has finally been given the go-ahead for
next year, to the annoyance of Imola (who had been in the running to
replace the circuit).
In first practice,
Rosberg was two-tenths up on Hamilton, with Raikkonen a week and a
half behind. Vettel, Perez and Grosjean were next, with Bottas,
Verstappen, Gutierrez and Ricciardo rounding out the top 10.
Second practice saw
Hamilton top, two-tenths up on Rosberg. Vettel was about three-tenths
back, ahead of Raikkonen, who was also three-tenths up on Verstappen.
Ricciardo, Alonso, Bottas, Grosjean and Button were following.
At this stage, I’m
not surprised Mercedes are top, Ferrari next and then Red Bull. I’m
astounded how well McLaren seem to be doing. Monza is all about
horsepower and the Honda engine is the worst, yet they seem to be
very competitive. Force India are a bit slower than expected, at this
stage, and Haas are looking pretty good, although this is just
practice.
In third practice,
Grosjean went into the gravel trap and left the session early. Might
be a gearbox failure, which could have implications for both a grid
penalty and for future problems in the race.
Hamilton was a
substantial four-tenths up on Rosberg in third practice, the Ferraris
again 3-4, Vettel half a second off the Mercedes but Raikkonen
three-tenths up on the Williams. Bottas and Massa were next, Red Bull
relegated to 7th and 8th (Ricciardo the
faster), Perez and Gutierrez rounding out the top 10.
Red Bull and Force
India are looking a little ropier than expected.
Initial betting
thoughts for qualifying were to check the Haas drivers for Q3, and
Perez likewise. Just evens was available, which is too short to
tempt, so no bet on qualifying. Or so I thought.
Then I saw an odd bet.
Rosberg is 4.33 for pole, which you may think makes sense, but the
odds each way are 1/3 that, for a top 2 finish. The Mercedes is ahead
by miles. Unless mechanical failure or driver error happens then the
two Silver Arrows are destined to be top 2. And there’s an
off-chance he’ll get pole.
So, I’ve backed:
Rosberg, pole (each
way), 4.33 [Ladbrokes]
Of course, gambling is
very risky. However, if you want a sure thing, buy Explorations:Through the Wormhole, a new sci-fi anthology featuring the story Dead
Weight, by me [under the name Thaddeus White, rather than Morris
Dancer].
Morris Dancer
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