Italy: post-race analysis 2016

One bet came off, the other didn’t, but short odds meant the profit for both race and weekend was minimal. Bit frustrating as I’ve got two out of three right and much of it proceeded as I expected, but a lack of judgement (perhaps) with the lap 1 bet diluted any profits. Still, nice to finish ahead, even if only by a small sum.

Off the line, it was nearly glorious. Hamilton left the handbrake on and both Ferraris (and Bottas) got ahead of him. Vettel nearly pipped Rosberg to the first corner, but it wasn’t to be. Further down the grid. Verstappen, Gutierrez and Button all fell down the order (the Briton was forced wide on the first lap, I think).

Hamilton was bottled up behind Bottas for quite a few laps, but eventually managed to pass the Finn, who was driving rather well. The first pit stops were disappointing, however. Ferrari switched both cars to new supersoft tyres (having begun on that compound, it necessitated a second pit stop). The Mercedes, starting on the soft, switched to medium tyres. Why Ferrari didn’t try putting one car on medium tyres, to split the strategy and avoid giving away track position, I don’t know. Red Bull was behind them both on-track and on pace. But there we are.

Hamilton rose to 2^nd, behind his team mate (whom he never threatened to catch), by virtue of the Ferraris pitting twice to his once.

It was more interesting behind him. Bottas was on soft tyres at the end, Ricciardo the supersoft, and a super late lunge into the first corner (and eminently sensible driving from the Finn) meant the Aussie got ahead without contact. Despite that, a great race for Williams, who also had Massa finish in 9^th.

Verstappen, after his dreadful start, recovered well to 7^th, and Force India double-scored with 8^th and 10^th for Perez and Hulkenberg respectively.

There was a bit of contact later in the race between Nasr and Palmer, which led to both retiring. The terminally unlucky Kvyat also retired, as did Wehrlein.

This unexpected victory for Rosberg means he’s just two points behind Hamilton with seven races left.

Constructors:

Red Bull 290

Ferrari 279

Williams 111

Force India 108

The gap between the bulls and horses has narrowed, but I expect it to lengthen again come Singapore. A street circuit will suit the superior downforce of the Red Bull, I feel. Similarly, Williams has leapfrogged Force India to regain 4^th, but I think the Force India will be better next race (and overall in the course of the remaining races).

A quick check on the spread suggestions I offered (buying Verstappen and Bottas, selling Magnussen and Alonso) indicate things are largely going well, although I could do with Verstappen having some strong victories.

Believe it or not, this is the first time I’ve had a green result since Spain. Which was in May.

Why not celebrate this rare and magnificent event by purchasing the excellent Explorations:Through the Wormhole anthology, featuring the story Dead Weight, by me?

On a more serious note, this season has been pretty lacklustre at best. The pleasing Verstappen bet at Spain shouldn’t mask that my weekend bets have generally been poor.

The next race is Singapore in a fortnight. Expect Red Bull to do well, and McLaren likewise. Williams should have a poor race. That’s the circuit where Mercedes unexpectedly fell off a cliff last year. I don’t think that will happen again, but we’ll see.

Morris Dancer