Rosberg got very close to poll, but you don’t win bets by nearly being right. On the plus side, the each way element came off so there was neither a loss nor a gain.
In the first part of qualifying, Magnussen was unable to put in a time due to crashing. Both Saubers and both Manors also failed to escape (Wehrlein top of that quartet in 18th) and Palmer, the other Renault driver, also did not progress.
It was pretty competitive at the sharp end of Q2. Button locked a brake which may have cost him progression, but his team mate did get through. Likewise, Perez did not advance, Hulkenberg did. Both Toro Rossos and both Haas cars [which have been odd this year, starting spectacularly and then falling off a cliff] exited at this stage.
In Q3 there were only two chaps competing for pole. Hamilton got it by less than a tenth over his team mate. Obviously disappointing the full bet didn’t come off, but the each way aspect meant it was neutral (for the record, that counts as a win). For a long time it was a class of two, but Vettel got surprisingly close, just a tenth off Rosberg’s time. With tyre degradation a potential factor, the gentler Ferrari might yet spring a surprise.
Ricciardo was next, a quarter of a second ahead of his team mate. At the moment, I do think the Aussie is top dog in Red Bull. Raikkonen had a lacklustre 6th. Bottas and Massa were next, which is a bit better than I’d expected (the Williams is tasty in a straight line but a bit rubbish at slow corners, of which Canada has many). Hulkenberg and Alonso were next up.
There’s a 40% chance of rain in the first hour, 20% in the second. So, rain must be considered, but not assumed.
Without checking the markets, bets that sprung to mind were:
Raikkonen not to be classified
Raikkonen is 4.33 not to be classified. I find that quite tempting. The Ferrari has slightly suspect reliability, rain may help increase the odds of failing to finish and starting 6th means there’s plenty of scope for a lap 1 crash.
Alonso and Button are about 1.8 and evens for points. I think that’s about right, and, hence, not value.
Ricciardo’s 2.25 for a podium. Again, I think that’s fair and, therefore, not value. Was hoping he’d be a shade longer.
The Raikkonen bet is quite appealing, but I thought I’d peruse the markets anyway to see if anything leapt out like a panther on an unwary dentist from Minnesota.
Vettel is 9 to lead lap 1. That’s slightly tempting as the Mercedes, especially Hamilton, have had some dodgy starts this year. My issue with this market is it’s almost entirely random.
In the end, I just went for the Raikkonen bet. So, the tip is:
Raikkonen, Not To Be Classified, 4.33 (Ladbrokes)
Race start is 7pm UK time (that always throws me off-kilter). Let’s hope it’s another Canadian classic.
The post-race analysis will be done tomorrow.