Sunday, 12 June 2016

Canada: pre-race 2016

Rosberg got very close to poll, but you don’t win bets by nearly being right. On the plus side, the each way element came off so there was neither a loss nor a gain.

In the first part of qualifying, Magnussen was unable to put in a time due to crashing. Both Saubers and both Manors also failed to escape (Wehrlein top of that quartet in 18th) and Palmer, the other Renault driver, also did not progress.

It was pretty competitive at the sharp end of Q2. Button locked a brake which may have cost him progression, but his team mate did get through. Likewise, Perez did not advance, Hulkenberg did. Both Toro Rossos and both Haas cars [which have been odd this year, starting spectacularly and then falling off a cliff] exited at this stage.

In Q3 there were only two chaps competing for pole. Hamilton got it by less than a tenth over his team mate. Obviously disappointing the full bet didn’t come off, but the each way aspect meant it was neutral (for the record, that counts as a win). For a long time it was a class of two, but Vettel got surprisingly close, just a tenth off Rosberg’s time. With tyre degradation a potential factor, the gentler Ferrari might yet spring a surprise.

Ricciardo was next, a quarter of a second ahead of his team mate. At the moment, I do think the Aussie is top dog in Red Bull. Raikkonen had a lacklustre 6th. Bottas and Massa were next, which is a bit better than I’d expected (the Williams is tasty in a straight line but a bit rubbish at slow corners, of which Canada has many). Hulkenberg and Alonso were next up.

There’s a 40% chance of rain in the first hour, 20% in the second. So, rain must be considered, but not assumed.

Without checking the markets, bets that sprung to mind were:
Raikkonen not to be classified
Alonso/Button points
Ricciardo podium

Raikkonen is 4.33 not to be classified. I find that quite tempting. The Ferrari has slightly suspect reliability, rain may help increase the odds of failing to finish and starting 6th means there’s plenty of scope for a lap 1 crash.

Alonso and Button are about 1.8 and evens for points. I think that’s about right, and, hence, not value.

Ricciardo’s 2.25 for a podium. Again, I think that’s fair and, therefore, not value. Was hoping he’d be a shade longer.

The Raikkonen bet is quite appealing, but I thought I’d peruse the markets anyway to see if anything leapt out like a panther on an unwary dentist from Minnesota.

Vettel is 9 to lead lap 1. That’s slightly tempting as the Mercedes, especially Hamilton, have had some dodgy starts this year. My issue with this market is it’s almost entirely random.

In the end, I just went for the Raikkonen bet. So, the tip is:
Raikkonen, Not To Be Classified, 4.33 (Ladbrokes)

Race start is 7pm UK time (that always throws me off-kilter). Let’s hope it’s another Canadian classic.

The post-race analysis will be done tomorrow.


Morris Dancer

3 comments:

  1. Good evening Mr Dancer.

    My apologies for my absence recently from your most excellent blog.

    Some things which caught my eye.
    Without any intervention Mercedes should always get fastest lap but in these conditions I fancy Vettel to pinch that.
    Sainz for Points (the penalty is not reflected in his price), Bottas for top 6 (the Williams is getting worse and his odds are out of alignment with that so it's value) and it's hard to see past Hamilton for the win.

    I did very nicely on the golf last weekend so I have some money to waste. In the absence of one of your infamous tennis tips I will follow you in on the Raikkonen tip instead :)

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  2. Race Winner – Lewis Hamilton @ 4/5 EW WIN
    Top 6 Finish – Valtteri Bottas @ 11/10 WIN
    Points Finish – Carlos Sainz Jr @ 5/4 WIN
    Not To Complete The Race – Kimi Raikkonen @ 7/2 LOSE
    Fastest Lap – Sebastian Vettel @ 7/1 LOSE

    That gives me an 18% return. Woohoo!

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  3. Glad to see you back, Mr. M.

    Must admit to being a bit disappointed with both race and betting result. Always irksome to raise a long odds winner and not back it oneself.

    Congrats on your overall green result. Williams did far better than I expected, and Sainz did well to rise through the ranks for points.

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