Saturday, 11 June 2016

Canada: pre-qualifying 2016

The first of a back-to-back pair of races (Azerbaijan is next weekend), we’re in Canada this time. I like Canada’s circuit a lot, although it’s always worth checking the weather forecast.

In the first practice session, Hamilton was three tenths up on Rosberg, with Vettel and Verstappen following. Raikkonen and Bottas were next, with Hulkenberg, Sainz, Perez and Alonso rounding out the top 10.

In the second practice session, Hamilton was two-tenths up on Vettel, with Rosberg three-tenths further down the road. Verstappen, Ricciardo and Bottas followed, with Button, Raikkonen, Hulkenberg and Sainz next up.

A red flag caused by a large Magnussen crash meant there was no real qualifying simulation in the third practice session, although it did seem fairly close at the sharp end.

Because of that, Vettel was fastest, two-tenths up on Verstappen. Rosberg and Raikkonen were next (on almost identical times), followed by Hamilton and Ricciardo. Sainz, Alonso, Perez and Massa round out the top 10.

Checking Wunderground, there’s a slightly better than evens chance of rain for qualifying (and a strong minority (30-40% chance) of rain during the race. If there is rain that relatively advantages Red Bull over Ferrari, and won’t help Williams.

Pole seems very hard to call.

Bets I had in mind at this stage:
Alonso for Q3
Lay Massa Q3

Alonso was only evens, so that doesn’t tempt. Massa’s lay odds were 1.95, which is too long.

I was surprised to see Hamilton was 1.61 and Rosberg 4 to take pole. Each way the odds are a a third, so that’s evens for Rosberg to be top two. He’s been top two in qualifying at every race this year.

So, a tip, surprisingly:
Rosberg, pole (each way), 4 (Ladbrokes).


Morris Dancer

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